99 on BB

spectre

30 Live Freezout, level 2 - blinds are 50/100. I have 4200 (starting stack is 4K). Villain in CO has lost over half his stack in the previous hand as he had to make a big fold to an all in on the turn and is clealy frustrated. He has about 3600 chips. He open raises to 500, the button has a similar stack and flat calls. The small blind folds.

I look down at 99.

What is the best play here?

brianmc

spectre wrote:

30 Live Freezout, level 2 - blinds are 50/100. I have 4200 (starting stack is 4K). Villain in CO has lost over half his stack in the previous hand as he had to make a big fold to an all in on the turn and is clealy frustrated. He has about 3600 chips. He open raises to 500, the button has a similar stack and flat calls. The small blind folds.

I look down at 99.

What is the best play here?

Call and try REALLY hard to hit a 29Ar flop.

mewso

Probably be shot here but I would be tempted to fold this. I think you either fold or raise as a call will probably mean you end up faced with a push from the pre-flop raiser.
Don't call to hit a set. If you think you have the best hand then raise.

brianmc

Maybe I should expand.

Based on the information you've given I put it 50-50 as to whether you're currently ahead or not. I'm not terribly worried about what the original raiser has but I'm a bit wary of the caller.

So I flat call and evaluate on the flop. (It happens to become much easier to evaluate your situation if the flop has a nine on it, so I'd try really hard to hit one.)

Hectorjelly

go all in, this is a perfect spot - plenty of dead money and someone who may be on tilt and will call with a hand with 1 overcard. The stacks are too shallow to take a flop.

brianmc

Hectorjelly wrote:

go all in, this is a perfect spot - plenty of dead money and someone who may be on tilt and will call with a hand with 1 overcard. The stacks are too shallow to take a flop.

What would you equate this to, edgewise? A 55-45?

It's a genuine question. Edit: It's a pretty weakly defined question. Gut feel - how would you relate this (+EV wise) to say a 55-45 double up opportunity?


This is a pretty average - maybe even good - stack size for the average Dublin weekly tournament. I'm trying to decide these days whether I should be actively seeking small edge situations in these tournaments because of their structures or just sticking with my current approach of not shying away from them if I end up in that situation.

Hectorjelly

brianmc wrote:

What would you equate this to, edgewise? A 55-45?

It's a genuine question. Edit: It's a pretty weakly defined question. Gut feel - how would you relate this (+EV wise) to say a 55-45 double up opportunity?


This is a pretty average - maybe even good - stack size for the average Dublin weekly tournament. I'm trying to decide these days whether I should be actively seeking small edge situations in these tournaments because of their structures or just sticking with my current approach of not shying away from them if I end up in that situation.

What im hoping for is everyone to fold - if I knew I was getting called id probably fold. But if AK calls you its a good spot, your a small favourite and theres plenty of dead money. Theres 1k in the pot already, and you only have 4k.

brianmc

Hectorjelly wrote:

What im hoping for is everyone to fold - if I knew I was getting called id probably fold. But if AK calls you its a good spot, your a small favourite and theres plenty of dead money. Theres 1k in the pot already, and you only have 4k.

I think I'm basing my question on my gut feeling that you are getting a caller here.

The real question is:

I suspect I've been a bit trigger happy recently getting all of my chips in with, say, a pair and a flush draw when I'm fairly sure I'm currently behind but probably have a small edge. This is fine when significant value has gone into the pot already and it should not be laid down.

Recently though, thinking about the structure of the tournaments I play in I've started to wonder if I should actually just be seeking out these "tiny edge" situations (along with the better ones obviously) and getting my chips in.

Any opinions (anyone)?

(I should probably have started a separate thread)

Hectorjelly

I dont really play tournaments like this, but I would never actively seek out very small edges. However im more than happy to get my chips in if theres a chance of someone folding, and if I get called its a coinflip or close.

Hawk Eye

Hectorjelly wrote:

go all in, this is a perfect spot - plenty of dead money and someone who may be on tilt and will call with a hand with 1 overcard. The stacks are too shallow to take a flop.

What are you talking about.This is a clear fold.
CO is steaming and he's calling an all in regardless. He opens for 5BB and you want to race in this spot and doubt he would call with only one over HJ. Then you have to worry about the button. This is how I would play AA,KK,QQ, just flat in position preflop and collect the rest of his stack on the flop.
Wait for a better opportunity, you would need to be insane to risk your tournament here.

El Stuntman

Hawk Eye wrote:

What are you talking about.This is a clear fold.
CO is steaming and he's calling an all in regardless. He opens for 5BB and you want to race in this spot and doubt he would call with only one over HJ. Then you have to worry about the button. This is how I would play AA,KK,QQ, just flat in position preflop and collect the rest of his stack on the flop.
Wait for a better opportunity, you would need to be insane to risk your tournament here.

uh oh...calling HJ insane is never a good move....

don your flak jacket and metal helmet and prepare for heavy incoming fire!!

connie147

I'd side with HJ.He has raised(possibly on tilt),button flat calls so I'm thinking my 99 is ahead of him,I,d push and add 25% to my stack.Its the ideal scenario to increase your chip stack.You could get called by 2 overcards but maybe youll be called by 88 or 77.Try and take it now.

ocallagh

Hectorjelly wrote:

go all in, this is a perfect spot

Hawk Eye wrote:

What are you talking about.This is a clear fold.

this is gonna be a long one... :rolleyes:

robinlacey

if you think you are ahead of the original raiser's range here (and i think you are)then you should push
also,about your general questions,have a look at this article

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/showarticle.php?a_id=15093&m_id=65576

5starpool

I like the all in here too. A squeeze play with backup.

equation

I would have gone all in, if the other caller had a great hand he would have raised to get everyone out of the pot IMO

brianmc

robinlacey wrote:

if you think you are ahead of the original raiser's range here (and i think you are)then you should push
also,about your general questions,have a look at this article

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/showarticle.php?a_id=15093&m_id=65576

Thanks. I've read the article before alright and it makes sense.

I don't think pushing is wrong in the OP but my gut feeling is that you are most likely to get called and are only going to have a very small +EV from it. What's different for me in this situation to the article is that we have another option here of (perhaps) calling and re-evaluating on the flop. The article is call or fold.

Then again given the structure of the tournament (i.e. good for a weekly Dublin tourney but still not fantastic), my opinion recently has started leaning towards push - take the small +EV and be done with the hand. I'm undecided about my logic there though.

Hawk Eye

robinlacey wrote:

if you think you are ahead of the original raiser's range here (and i think you are)then you should push

Your 99 is going to be ahead of everything apart from an overpair here.
Just cause your ahead it doesn't make an all in the optimal play.
Your sitting on a stack of 4.2k with the blinds 50-100 an all in is unnecessary.

5starpool

brianmc wrote:

I don't think pushing is wrong in the OP but my gut feeling is that you are most likely to get called and are only going to have a very small +EV from it. What's different for me in this situation to the article is that we have another option here of (perhaps) calling and re-evaluating on the flop. The article is call or fold.

Then again given the structure of the tournament (i.e. good for a weekly Dublin tourney but still not fantastic), my opinion recently has started leaning towards push - take the small +EV and be done with the hand. I'm undecided about my logic there though.

Assuming both players have 3600 total (as indicated) by pushing here if you win uncontested you get 1150 total. If you get by one caller. you have to put 3500 more in to win a total of 7750, so you only need to win here 45% of the time to be profitable.

If you get called by 2 players put on your coat or as originally suggested try really hard to hit a 9.

Overall I think this situation is worth the all in move as you will not get called all the time in this spot (amazing what an allin will do to some players) and even when you do if it is overcards you are getting good odds for your money.

My 2c.

equation

I agree with starpool, he just put it abit more eliquently than I did :-)

Hawk Eye

5starpool wrote:

I like the all in here too. A squeeze play with backup.

IMAO, I wish I had your outlook on life. Yeah I guess hitting a set is always a good back up.

This is a €30 FO in the Fitz, squeeze play is being used out of context here.
The CO isn't folding.

brianmc

equation wrote:

I agree with starpool, he just put it abit more eliquently than I did :-)

I could do with an extra pinch of eloquence myself.

My question isn't really about the specific hand above and so I should probably stop discussing it in this thread.

I may post a new thread later.

5starpool

Hawk Eye wrote:

IMAO, I wish I had your outlook on life. Yeah I guess hitting a set is always a good back up.

This is a €30 FO in the Fitz, squeeze play is being used out of context here.
The CO isn't folding.

Are you saying there are no tight players in this tournie? What would you do if you were in the cutoff here with AQo? Initially a call with this of a potentially tilted player for 500 is one thing. all in is another. As you said yourself, the blinds are only 50/100. It is not like he cannot get away from this.

He may end up calling with a big pair. I think more often than not though if he does call he will have something like AQ. I also think that no one calls here often enough to make this a profitable move. If you don't agree then some reasoning other than 'He is going to call' would be good.

Hawk Eye

5starpool wrote:

Assuming both players have 3600 total (as indicated) by pushing here if you win uncontested you get 1150 total. If you get by one caller. you have to put 3500 more in to win a total of 7750, so you only need to win here 45% of the time to be profitable.

It probably has marginal +EV actually one caller will give 7550 (2*3500+500+50 you are BB) but your using your stack needlessly and on a gamble.

Hitman Actual

Hawk Eye wrote:

The CO isn't folding.

If there's a decent chance that he will, and I think there is, then I like a push as well. Plus, given the action so far, I think nines are ahead here, so when you get called you're at least a 55% favourite. Folding equity ups this to a 60%+ situation, which is plenty for a Fitz weekly tournament.

To BMC, lately I'm happy to take a 55% chance in the Fitz tourneys. The structures are generally too tight and you have to win these 55%+ chances, to do well.

5starpool

Hawk Eye wrote:

It probably has marginal +EV actually one caller will give 7550 (2*3500+500+50 you are BB) but your using your stack needlessly and on a gamble.

2*3600+500+50=7750. Read original stack sizes again. We disagree about the marginality of this particular situation. I do this if I know nothing much about my opponents.

I folded this exact hand (except from button) with the same action last week because of the opponents.

Hawk Eye

5starpool wrote:

2*3600+500+50=7750. Read original stack sizes again. We disagree about the marginality of this particular situation. I do this if I know nothing much about my opponents.

Well I guess thats the defining factor the opposition and their range of hands.
But purely on a situational sense I'm folding here.
Apologises for mis-correcting your correctness.

5starpool

Hawk Eye wrote:

Well I guess thats the defining factor the opposition and their range of hands.
But purely on a situational sense I'm folding here.
Apologises for mis-correcting your correctness.

Also in this type of event I will gamble early on to get a decent stack. Too often have I been blinded away, and I feel there is sufficient edge here to warrant it. We nearly agree I sense.

spectre

I felt that calling was out of the question as the odds of me hitting my ideal flop of A9x were not sufficient given the stack sizes. Most often, the flop will come with at least one overcard and I'll have to act first with two behind me - horrible situation.

I pushed. They both reluctantly folded. As was said by 5starpool, I felt it was a good squeze play with backup.

fuzzbox

99 is too good to be squeezing ... you are betting your hand for value here. You dont need to squeeze, you have a real hand ... and you kind half expect to get called.

5starpool

fuzzbox wrote:

99 is too good to be squeezing ... you are betting your hand for value here. You dont need to squeeze, you have a real hand ... and you kind half expect to get called.

That is what I meant. It looks like a squeeze. You are happy to increase your stack by 25% if not called, but if you are called you are not here in your socks as you would be with a real squeeze play.

Hectorjelly

Hawk Eye wrote:

What are you talking about.This is a clear fold.
Wait for a better opportunity, you would need to be insane to risk your tournament here.

Wow your right I clearly need to rethink my approach to poker and possibly life itself. You on the other hand might want to learn how to construct a proper argument, and then how to play poker with anything but a weak tight style

Hawk Eye wrote:

CO is steaming and he's calling an all in regardless.

Hawk Eye wrote:

and doubt he would call with only one over HJ

Now I see!

5starpools post explains pretty simply why there is only really one move here.

Hawk Eye

fuzzbox wrote:

99 is too good to be squeezing ... you are betting your hand for value here. You dont need to squeeze, you have a real hand ... and you kind half expect to get called.

99 should be treated like 22 here and 99 isn't a real hand oop with a raise and a call. Obvious oop doesn't come into it with a push but I would fold JJ here.Then again I'm tight.

EDIT: Or as HJ says I'm WEAK tight.

5starpool

Hawk Eye wrote:

99 should be treated like 22 here and 99 isn't a real hand oop with a raise and a call. Obvious oop doesn't come into it with a push but I would fold JJ here.Then again I'm tight.

Tighty McTight from Tighttown it seems like.

Believe it or not I am a tight player too. It doesn't mean I don't see potentially favourable situations when they come along though.

Hawk Eye

Hectorjelly wrote:

learn how to play poker with anything but a weak tight style.

Because you know my style and capabilities purely on the basis of my views on one particular hand.

Hitman Actual

Hawk Eye wrote:

99 should be treated like 22 here and 99 isn't a real hand oop with a raise and a call. Obvious oop doesn't come into it with a push but I would fold JJ here.Then again I'm tight.

EDIT: Or as HJ says I'm WEAK tight.

Fold JJ here? You're taking the piss, I assume. And, ok, there was a raise and a call, but with the action thus far I think nines are ahead a lot of the time here.

robinlacey

Hawk Eye wrote:

Your 99 is going to be ahead of everything apart from an overpair here.
Just cause your ahead it doesn't make an all in the optimal play.
Your sitting on a stack of 4.2k with the blinds 50-100 an all in is unnecessary.

being ahead of a range in this situation does make an all in the optimal play-you don't really have enough chips to call and see a flop given that you have 99,so there'll probably be at least one overcard on the flop,and you'll be out of position for the rest of the hand against two players...you're much better off getting all in against one player with dead money in the pot-if he has TT+ so be it,its hard to put him on a range you're behind...

Hectorjelly

Hawk Eye wrote:

Because you know my style and capabilities purely on the basis of my views on one particular hand.

Hawk Eye wrote:

I would fold JJ here

Folding JJ here is beyond weak tight

robinlacey

Hawk Eye wrote:

IMAO, I wish I had your outlook on life. Yeah I guess hitting a set is always a good back up.

This is a €30 FO in the Fitz, squeeze play is being used out of context here.
The CO isn't folding.

so there's no chance whatsover of either
a-both players folding
or
b-getting called by a hand you're ahead of? (it doesnt matter how marginally)

i think for one of those statements to be true the other has to be false

and all this talk of marginal edges is ridiculous,if you can get a 51% edge here take it
people are saying that they'd fold if they thought they were only 55% to win the hand,i dont think you realise how huge an opportunity getting all in as 55-45 favourite with dead money in the pot is!
these are the kind of situations i try to create in tournaments,not reluctantly accept...