Gut Feeling vs Sense

ChipLdr

* Game ID 499240401 starting - 2006-05-15 23:22:40
** Jerome [Hold 'em] (1.00|2.00 No Limit - Cash Game) Real Money

- ChipLdr sitting in seat 1 with $126.00 [Dealer]
- ratmaster sitting in seat 2 with $87.03
- thebadger sitting in seat 3 with $177.70
- MAC-1 sitting in seat 4 with $191.50
- davejones sitting in seat 5 with $254.09
- SMPlayer77 sitting in seat 6 with $318.38

ratmaster posted the small blind - $1.00
thebadger posted the big blind - $2.00
** Dealing card to ChipLdr: Queen of Clubs, 10 of Clubs
MAC-1 folded
davejones called - $2.00
SMPlayer77 called - $2.00
ChipLdr called - $2.00
ratmaster raised - $12.00
thebadger folded
davejones called - $12.00
SMPlayer77 called - $12.00
ChipLdr called - $12.00

** Dealing the flop: Ace of Clubs, King of Spades, 8 of Clubs
ratmaster bet - $12.00
davejones folded
SMPlayer77 folded
ChipLdr called - $12.00

** Dealing the turn: King of Diamonds
ratmaster bet - $24.00
ChipLdr called - $24.00

** Dealing the river: Ace of Diamonds
ratmaster went all-in - $40.03
ChipLdr called - $40.03
ratmaster shows: Jack of Hearts, Jack of Clubs
ChipLdr shows: Queen of Clubs, 10 of Clubs
ChipLdr wins $199.06 from the main pot

Villian seems fairly ok but his postflop betting usually siginified his hand strength(e.g if he bet weak, he was weak).He didnt seem to opt for setting traps. I had one of those "something doesn't add up about his betting pattern moments".

I felt if he had A or K he would bet more aggresively before the river and his betting rythm was all off.He would bet with no consistency and seemed to not like me calling. After the final Ace came on the river i was all ready to fold but then a strange thing happened.On the river he hesitated considerably before going all in.I started thinking of all the hands he would raise to $12 oop with preflop and after his weak flop bet i ruled out him having an A.So maybe a K? But ive ruled out AK so KQ unlikely considering oop. The clock was ticking and with 5 secs to go i put him on a smaller pair and called.

I'm not denying i was so lucky with the board pairing twice but should i have called the river bet with nothing but Q kicker on a AAKK board with all my hope resting on my gut feeling that the river has killed his hand or we both have a Q and split.Of course i wouldnt do this in a million years with other villians and i was all set to fold until my poker sense started to tingle.

Mr. Flibble

Only kidding, sometimes poker is beautiful. The only hand that was likely to have u beat was AK if you don't think he'd raise OOP with a weaker Ace.. I think KQ betting pf and after would have been wierd bets.

So unless he had AK or quads you were set for a call, plus it was for $40 for a $160 pot so you olny had t be right once in a while to make money.

Nice hand tho.

robinlacey

you should really have folded the turn-once the board pairs your implied odds are gone since even if you hit your flush/straight you're not going to be able to get your stack in without having to worry about a house...
also,you have a little over half a buyin at the start of the hand-i saw on another thread you're thinking about playing for a living,so you need to be playing stakes you can afford-either top up to 200 or play .50/1 with a full buyin...

ChipLdr

I realise that my odds were shortened but what i'm trying to say here is that my gut feeling told me that he had nothing of the board and dats why i called the all in on the river.

With respect to the buyin question, i always sit down with the max at every table i play on and i had to fold a monster pot a couple of hands previously after the board dished out 4 clubs to which i had none.I didnt have time to reload as i was involved in the following few pots.

By following all logic of how the hand played out i should've folded but by reading an opponent correctly i managed to call the bet on the river confident i was ahead!!!

I would never ever call these bets if i had no read on a player.

Hectorjelly

robin is saying that on the turn you should not of called the bet as the board paired. This is especially true if you thought that he didnt have a strong hand, as your unlikely to get paid off. If you thought he wasnt strong on the turn then you should of made a play for the pot, or folded. The river call isnt that audacious considering the amount of the bet and the double paired board.