A hand from last nights double chance

ianmc38 · 19-05-2006 9:25am #1

OK. After some sickening bad beats last night, I managed to get back to 5k at the break. A few hands later on my BB, I get dealt KK. An absolute fish in late position raises to 800. he has about 8k. His range here is any pair, any ace and any two broadways. i've played lots of cash games and lots of tourneys with this guy and I'm sure he'll call a push.

If he has Ax, I can flat call and get away from an A high flop. If I do a stop and go, I'm sure he'll check or fold any flop that he's missed. I'm not overly keen on pushing and getting done by an ace on the flop, but I feel now is the best time to get all his chips in the middle.

So I push.

Comments?

fuzzbox · 19-05-2006 9:52am

And what do you want to know?

El Stuntman · 19-05-2006 9:55am

ianmc38 wrote:

I'm sure he'll call a push.

well then you played it perfectly...have a pat on the back and a packet of Tayto.

ianmc38 · 19-05-2006 9:56am

fuzzbox wrote:

And what do you want to know?

Am I gambling here and am I better off flat calling and pushing a non ace flop to pickup another 1k, essentially increasing my stack size by 4k?

Am I better off reraising preflop to say 2k. That way I'm getting 2k off him and leaving myself 15BB if there's no A on the flop, but still having a chance to get away fom the hand.

Hitman Actual · 19-05-2006 9:57am

Is this a trick question? Of course it's a push.

Edit: I'm sure you could do some maths to work out if flat calling or just raising, and then playing a flop, is a better EV move, but I dont see how it could be better than getting it all in preflop as a 70%+ favourite.

bubbleking · 19-05-2006 10:00am

would you not consider raising it to say 2.5k and pushing a non ace flop if he folds to the reraise you take his blind and hel feel more pot commited to call even if he misses the flop giving you a nice little double up.

5starpool · 19-05-2006 10:04am

If you feel that he is likely to call an all in preflop but will not call a bet on any board that he misses then I think it is best to push. If he has Ax and spikes an A then so be it.

This does not sound like the type of player that might put you on a bare stop and go (without a hand like KK to back it up) so he is only likely to see headlines such as "2 broadways are great" or "any pair is surely ahead here as others always have AK".

El Stuntman · 19-05-2006 10:05am

bubbleking wrote:

would you not consider raising it to say 2.5k and pushing a non ace flop if he folds to the reraise you take his blind and hel feel more pot commited to call even if he misses the flop giving you a nice little double up.

He knows the villain will call....

therefore he has done exactly the right thing

brianmc · 19-05-2006 10:06am

ianmc38 wrote:

Am I gambling here and am I better off flat calling and pushing a non ace flop to pickup another 1k, essentially increasing my stack size by 4k?

Am I better off reraising preflop to say 2k. That way I'm getting 2k off him and leaving myself 15BB if there's no A on the flop, but still having a chance to get away fom the hand.

If you think he'll call off his entire stack to your preflop push with the range of hands that you described then go for it.

If you don't think he'll call your push then flat call or make a smaller raise.

1. Worrying about getting outdrawn is silly.

2. You may not get the rest of his stack after the flop if it doesn't suit him.

You know all of this already.

bubbleking · 19-05-2006 10:08am

El Stuntman wrote:

He knows the villain will call....

therefore he has done exactly the right thing

nobody is that good that they can predict the actions of a villain 100% of the time they are not programmable robots even the most consistant villains will show variance at some point.

El Stuntman · 19-05-2006 10:12am

bubbleking wrote:

nobody is that good that they can predict the actions of a villain 100% of the time they are not programmable robots even the most consistant villains will show variance at some point.

he's played loads with the villain and knows he will call a push

errrr, duh?

I presume he sucked out on you anyway Ian?

tell us so we can consign this thread to the pauper's grave it deserves....

bubbleking · 19-05-2006 10:15am

its easy saying he will definately call 100% of the time after the event has happened and he spikes an ace or trips against you to knock you out.

ianmc38 · 19-05-2006 10:19am

I'm not concerned about the result of the hand.

I'm worried that I put my tournament life on the line when I could have increased my stack by 1k by doing a stop and go on a non ace flop, or by 2.5k by reraising preflop(assuming he didn't 3 bet) and pushing a non ace flop.

Knowing the tendency of the villain, makes me think that one of those 2 moves is nearly always better, cos as I said, I've still 15BB left should the dreaded A come on the flop and i'll increase my stack size by 50% while not putting my tourney life in the balance...

Is thinking like that too results oriented and should I be happy to get all his chips in there?

PS there was no ace on the flop.

El Stuntman · 19-05-2006 10:19am

bubbleking wrote:

its easy saying he will definately call 100% of the time after the event has happened and he spikes an ace or trips against you to knock you out.

I'm sure that's what did happen given the tone of the post....all will be revealed shortly no doubt

however Ian was 100% correct in his play (given that his invisible puppetmaster buddy was standing behind the villain and pulling the appropriate strings to make him call the push with AJsooooooted or somesuch)

you can't hesitate to get all your money in the middle as an overwhelming favourite - if you do, then you should take up knitting or something

ollyk1 · 19-05-2006 10:29am

ianmc38 wrote:

I'm not concerned about the result of the hand.

I'm worried that I put my tournament life on the line when I could have increased my stack by 1k by doing a stop and go on a non ace flop, or by 2.5k by reraising preflop(assuming he didn't 3 bet) and pushing a non ace flop.

Knowing the tendency of the villain, makes me think that one of those 2 moves is nearly always better, cos as I said, I've still 15BB left should the dreaded A come on the flop and i'll increase my stack size by 50% while not putting my tourney life in the balance...

Is thinking like that too results oriented and should I be happy to get all his chips in there?

PS there was no ace on the flop.

The tournament structure is too fast after the break and the stacks too shallow not to push preflop with a minimum 70/30 advantage.

You have to win your 70/30 flips to stand a chance in the SE DC games. By not embracing them you are giving up value and you are playing suboptimally and therefore reducing your chances of winning in the long run. Plus you'll end up hanging around in the game for longer with a lower expectation of winning when you could be makiing money in the cash game if you lose the hand. Thats my view on it anyway.

smurph · 19-05-2006 10:35am

El Stuntman wrote:

well then you played it perfectly...have a pat on the back and a packet of Tayto.

If no Ace on Flop then a Blue Peter Badge aswell:p

5starpool · 19-05-2006 10:41am

don't you just hate it when QJ sucks out on KK with 2 pair on the turn/river....

brianmc · 19-05-2006 10:45am

5starpool wrote:

don't you just hate it when QJ sucks out on KK with 2 pair on the turn/river....

Much worse is a dominated Ace making the low straight.

You're praying - "nice low board, nice low board" - followed by - "oh."

ianmc38 · 19-05-2006 10:51am

I'd like to see the maths on the EV of all 3 moves.

1. Pushing and getting called.
2. Stop and go on a non ace flop.
3. Reraise to 2k and push a non ace flop.

I think number 3 is possibly the best option. The outcome of the hand isn't important. I know many tournament players try to avoid all-in situations where you are essentially gambling, even if a villain only has a few outs.

So can someone do that maths? I could make a somewhat poor effort. Where's Bozzer when you need him?!

Hectorjelly · 19-05-2006 10:55am

How do you know he has an ace?

fuzzbox · 19-05-2006 11:01am

Hectorjelly wrote:

How do you know he has an ace?

Thats an extremely important point.

ianmc38 · 19-05-2006 11:11am

Tis tis.

I suppose his range here is {66+, KJ+, A2+}

Against that range, getting his chips in preflop is correct.

QED.

fuzzbox · 19-05-2006 2:56pm

If thats his calling range ... then get your chips in afainst this guy with a lot more than KK!!

Gholimoli · 19-05-2006 3:39pm

i think this is very simple and you answered your own question in your first post by saying that he will call a push with any A or any two pics or any pair but if you flat call and he misses then he wont continue on.
if you flat call him and then push a none A flop as you suggested,your allowing him to play perfect poker and not make any mistakes.he will fold if he misses (no mistake here) and will call if he catches(no mistake here either) .you have no make your opponents make mistakes regardles of the results.if you push and he calls with Ax and he cathes an A you have played the hand correctly and he has made a mistake.thats all you can do and should do IMO.

ianmc38 · 19-05-2006 3:45pm

Gholimoli wrote:

i think this is very simple and you answered your own question in your first post by saying that he will call a push with any A or any two pics or any pair but if you flat call and he misses then he wont continue on.
if you flat call him and then push a none A flop as you suggested,your allowing him to play perfect poker and not make any mistakes.he will fold if he misses (no mistake here) and will call if he catches(no mistake here either) .you have no make your opponents make mistakes regardles of the results.if you push and he calls with Ax and he cathes an A you have played the hand correctly and he has made a mistake.thats all you can do and should do IMO.

Word.

5starpool · 19-05-2006 3:57pm

Gholimoli wrote:

your allowing him to play perfect poker and not make any mistakes.

The above seems to be the recurring theme of the week on this forum.

mewso · 19-05-2006 4:16pm

It's a compliment to borrow phrases right. I don't think you need maths here. It's great to be able to examine these things in detail by saying o.k. hes 80% to have an A, 90% he will call my push if he has an A but only 50% if he doesn't have the A so lets get out the calculators...
I'm an idiot not an idiot savante so I'm going with the simple equation that I can do at that particular moment in time. I have KK and the odds are very high my push will be called so I push.
O.k. so maybe you are just interested in the actual maths. It would be nice to see the maths but I think I'm doing the same thing here almost every time. Well maybe 90% if I have KK and only 80% if I have QQ and so on and so on. Someone mention poker and hell?
It's true professional tourney players don't like to get it all in unless they need too but thats because they avoid getting involved with marginal holdings in big pots. Free chips (75% of the time when he has an A, 95% of the time when he doesn't, something way off that at least) they'll go for every time.

RoundTower · 19-05-2006 4:31pm

If you had AT this hand would be worth discussing.