Visindar/The Derby

fade2black

2-1 A massive price?

I seriously cannot see anything in this year's field to beat him. This son of Sinndar just keeps improving and personally I beleive he's the ante-post bet of the year.

Any dissenting voices?

TwistsAndTurns

He now gone into 6-4 favourite for the Vodafone Derby on June 3 after winning Monday’s Prix Greffulhe at Saint-Cloud with Ladbrokes. Interesting reading on the Racing post, to cut it short you look spot on Fade.

Robin1982

What would you consider to be his fair value odds? Odds-on?

Morgans

Definitely wouldnt throw away a 10/1 betting slip for him, but I wouldnt be taking any short prices about him either. Most of the other derby contenders would have won his trials in much the same manner. I personally think that Championship Point, Lindas Lad, and Septimus are possibilities at larger odds. Hard deciding between the three but Ive taken some of the 14/1 about Septimus before the Dante, but I think there are plenty of reasons not to plough into Visindar at the current odds.

fade2black

I listened to people say the same thing about Hurricane Run for the Irish Derby last year. Back then I told people they were crazy for even dreaming about laying him. Some didn't listen. I think Visindar won't be beaten.

Morgans

You may well be right fade2black but Hurricane Run came into the Irish Derby on the back of an unlucky effort in the French Derby and had proven himself in Group1 company. Visindar could well be the best horse in this years race but none of the horses he has beaten to date would merit inclusion in the Derby field. I didnt think he was that impressive on Monday, but the lack of opposition makes him such a short price. Reminds me a bit of a Tenby.

masterK

Visindar defintely looks a serious horse but there's no way I be taking 6/4 on him considering he is still not a definite runner. How much shorter could he possibly be on the day?

It's quite difficult to try to equate the French form with that of Ireland and the UK, one interesting form line if a through a horse called Zatonic which was easily beaten by Visindar on Monday, in Zatonic's previous race he finished ahead of Aidan O'Briens Septimus, although it must be said the O'Brien stable wasn't firing at the time.

While he looks the most likely winner at this stage I couldn't be backing him at 6/4 based on 3 factors. As I already mentioned he is not a definite runner, two if the ground comes up good to firm or better it's hard to know if it will suit, Sinndar preferred a bit of cut in the ground, this fella could well be the same. Thirdly, quite often French horses fail to fire when travelling to the UK, I'd want to be sure he'd travelled Ok and was in good form on the day.

I agree with Morgans that Championship Point is a decent each way bet at this stage, currently 18/1 to win and 9/2 to be placed on Betfair.

Hawk Wing

Lay of the year for me, what exactly has he done to suggest he's a concrete 6/4 shot? pissed his way through two poor races in france, Fabre has had about 8 shots at Epsom and always come up short, the Horse is not a Epsom type horse in my opinion, badly balanced, he's knee action is poor and he is all shoulders. He'll be found out when they hit Tattenham Corner and up the straight.

ChuckProphet

He may well win but I wouldn't touch him at 6-4.

fade2black

You see I don't understand this, he may win but Im not taking 6/4...As much as I probably won't back him until much nearer the time I just haven't been impressed with any of his opponents.

With regards Hurricane Run, his derby run did come off the back of a very unlucky defeat by Shamardal, but the point I was making was that if you refer back to last year's Irish Derby thread, there were many people who were talking about laying him. My comparison was merely based on personal opinion and how much I fancied Visindar this year.

Hawk Wing, it takes a brave man to say that this horse is your lay of the year...I respect your conviction and also ackowledge your analysis of Epsom being a huge factor here but racing is all about opinions, I just hope you're wrong.

As MasterK said, the only obstacle for me is the doubt about his running, but for now we'll just have to look at the race presuming that he is (without investing any money as of yet)

Morgans

fade2black wrote:

You see I don't understand this, he may win but Im not taking 6/4...

Its the value arguement. Some people subscribe to it, others dont. I tend not to take prices about horses if I think they are too short in the market, if they are not good value. Others think a winners a winner regardless of the odds. If a horse is certain to win then 1/20 would be a big price. To me Visindar isnt a 6/4 chance to win this derby. I dont think he has done anything to merit being that price, of course he may well win, but because I think he is too short IMO, it means that there possibly better value in some of the opposition. Market forces and all that. I would prefer to take the chance that he doesnt act on the track, the ground is against him, French horses record in the race, and look for a possible improver at bigger odds to beat him. Each to their own.

Hawk Wing

I've always liked the look of septimus since I saw him at the Irish Champion stakes day, but he doesn't strike me as a Epsom horse, he's big and rangy, depending on how he goes tomorrow I might have a small wager on him, I've been saying Horatio since the first day I saw him in action, he could be the one, same build as Motivator. I have no doubt he'd stay, just look at some other Danehill's, westerner won a gold cup at ascot over 2.5 miles, thats why I think George Washington should take his chance, I really think he is going to be exceptional, but it ain't going to happen by the looks of things, if it didn't work out he could always go back to being a miler or 10F horse like Dubai Millennium and Dubawi, there's no shame in not getting the derby trip

Hawk Wing

Morgans wrote:

Its the value arguement. Some people subscribe to it, others dont. I tend not to take prices about horses if I think they are too short in the market, if they are not good value. Others think a winners a winner regardless of the odds. If a horse is certain to win then 1/20 would be a big price. To me Visindar isnt a 6/4 chance to win this derby. I dont think he has done anything to merit being that price, of course he may well win, but because I think he is too short IMO, it means that there possibly better value in some of the opposition. Market forces and all that. I would prefer to take the chance that he doesnt act on the track, the ground is against him, French horses record in the race, and look for a possible improver at bigger odds to beat him. Each to their own.

agreed, I wouldn't have him at anything less than 7/2

Morgans

I think your namesake, Hawk Wing, is the reason why GW isnt running in the derby.

fade2black

Morgans wrote:

Its the value arguement. Some people subscribe to it, others dont. I tend not to take prices about horses if I think they are too short in the market, if they are not good value. Others think a winners a winner regardless of the odds. If a horse is certain to win then 1/20 would be a big price. To me Visindar isnt a 6/4 chance to win this derby. I dont think he has done anything to merit being that price, of course he may well win, but because I think he is too short IMO, it means that there possibly better value in some of the opposition. Market forces and all that. I would prefer to take the chance that he doesnt act on the track, the ground is against him, French horses record in the race, and look for a possible improver at bigger odds to beat him. Each to their own.

A good point. As much as I usually am a subscriber to the value argument sometimes a horse comes along that just blinkers me. I went for value in the guineas and it paid off and I'll defintely have an each way selection in the derby too. Thinking about it now, I think in races like the derby, where there will be so many people getting involved, I don't think a French Horse will go off that short. The British and Irish Public will invariably pile into the alternatives and if he runs, Visindar could be more like a 15/8 shot come the big day.

As I said, this is all about opinions and there has been some good ones so far.

Hawk Wing

Morgans wrote:

I think your namesake, Hawk Wing, is the reason why GW isnt running in the derby.

tell me about it what a horse on his day. You are right though, they are afraid to risk it, what a shame as George is potentially even better..

ChuckProphet

Exactly, it's a value thing. If I popped into the bookies today and saw a horse in a small field at 6-4 who I fancied I may well back him. But the derby is 3 weeks away...anything could happen before then. Why back him now at 6-4? He's not gonna shorten before the derby. I would rather wait till the Dante tomorrow and see if anything impresses. When you consider Palace Episode is 33-1, Best Alibi is 25-1, those e/w are what I would consider. The last 2 derby winners have come from this race.

fade2black

BTW - 3.15 on BF at the moment.