"getting value" vs busting out

corblimey

I was roundly abused for doing this on Friday in a live game, but the more I think about it, the less I think I did anything wrong.

It was the final table, blinds were 1k/2k and I had snuck on with 12k, ready to push. Blinds went through me (I also completed on SB with a Q high, hoping against hope). Then on the button, with 8k to my name, I look down at A3s. UTG raises to 10k, for the third time in a row, but I have a tell and put him on a probable pocket pair. LP player then pushes for 13k more.

I figure I'm getting good value. Win this and I'll have 27k and be in fine form. I know I'm not beating the UTG, but a nice flop and I'm good. The LP is fairly tight, but has called several all-ins earlier in the tourney with suited Ks, so his range is fairly open. I'm fairly sure however I'm in third place.

But as I said, I have an ace, it's suited; the kicker is poor, and I need a miracle flop, but if I win I'm in good stead. On top of this, 9th 8th and 7th all pay the same, and I'm by far the shortest stack at the table. Nobody else is probably going to die in the next orbit and I need 3 to die before the money goes up.

So I make my stand. A3s v 88 (UTG) v AKo (LP). An 8 on the flop and 2 players are out. I was lambasted by a couple of the other players asking me why I didn't fold after the all-in, but I think I made the right choice. Comments?

Juan Pablo

In this spot you dont have the luxury of being first into the pot, which is key in this situation. You really should have made a stand long before you got down to only 4 x BB, and this is not the spot to get all your chips in, as two players have declared they have hands. (or you can at least be certain that LP has you dominated). Fold and try get your chips into the pot first in the next few hands. At this stage it really doenst matter what hands you are moving with, its far more important to be the first person into the pot. Even if you pick up the blinds you have increased your stack by 40% and it will give your next allin a little more clout. Pick up Harrington On Holdem 2 and read the chapter on Inflection Points, it is one of the most important elements of No-Limit Tournament play.

corblimey

Juan, I know all about inflection points, and M and all that sort of thing. I'd had about 27k with 3 players to go, doubled up another player and lost half my stack in a draw-out. I was ready to make my move at any moment, and I don't think with 4BBs, being first in the pot would have made the slightest bit of difference.

bohsman

corblimey wrote:

Juan, I know all about inflection points, and M and all that sort of thing. I'd had about 27k with 3 players to go, doubled up another player and lost half my stack in a draw-out. I was ready to make my move at any moment, and I don't think with 4BBs, being first in the pot would have made the slightest bit of difference.

Of course being the first one in is still important - get it in in lp with A3s first one into the pot chances are youre ahead, call an all in and a call behind youre in the situation youre in

corblimey

So the outside chance of trebling up in this situation still didn't warrant pushing my last 8k in with such a marginal hand, even taking into account the flat pay structure for the next 3 positions?

wayfarer

Just look at the odds that you are getting:

You're <15% against a pocket pair thats not 22 and an A with a better kicker (which is what you are going to be against most of the time here)

And ~29% against two pocket pairs which are neither 22 or AA

In neither case are you getting the odds of >33% to triple up. Even if its a PP and something like KQo youre still not getting the odds to call. You're on the button you have about 7 more hands to finds something. Its a clear fold to me.

corblimey wrote:

So the outside chance of trebling up in this situation still didn't warrant pushing my last 8k in with such a marginal hand, even taking into account the flat pay structure for the next 3 positions?

Youre going to be pushing within the next 7 hands, its unlikely that somebody is going to be knocked out before then The payout structure is still going to count, it's just that you will have a much better change of surviving.

connie147

corblimey wrote:

So the outside chance of trebling up in this situation still didn't warrant pushing my last 8k in with such a marginal hand, even taking into account the flat pay structure for the next 3 positions?

I cant think of any reason why you should put your chips in here in this spot.A raise and a call?You cant even call with A-10/A-J.Your bound to be dominated.Wait and get them in first as already said,and if theres constantly a raise before you,then your gonna have to try and get yourself up against one raiser with 7/8 of 5/6 and hope he has A-K/A-Q/A-J and maybe youll outdraw him.But A-3 is a no-no.

ollyk1

My comment

You should have pushed on the SB.

Hectorjelly

corblimey wrote:

So the outside chance of trebling up in this situation still didn't warrant pushing my last 8k in with such a marginal hand, even taking into account the flat pay structure for the next 3 positions?

no of course not - your hand is really bad in these circumstances. You will win the hand about 25% of the time, but have to contribute nearly 33% of the pot.

Gholimoli

look at it this way,would have called here with 72o for the outside chance of out drawing the other two and winning?
if your answer is no then its no for a reason.
the reason is based on the odds your getting 72 will not win enough times here to make this a right call.
i havent done the math with A3s but as others have said u dont have the correct odds to make this a correct call .

Norwich Fan Rob

insta fold, with 2 alls u are often against a pp and a bigger ace.

folding and open pushing with any 2 cards is a much better option.

i absolutely hate this call.

corblimey

Yeah, I had it out with a friend of mine over lunch about it, and he got me to agree that it was a foolish call with what I suspected to be the worst hand of the 3. I rarely "call for value" and certainly never "push for value". I think I must have been high when I made the call. Yeah, that's it. High.

mewso

I totally agree this is a fold but if I went mad for a second and thought I wanted to call for the value I would not want Ace rag as my hand. Don't forget you want outs.

Bandana boy

Yes you should try to get it in first you might have some fe (you might be ahead )
But if you want to call with the chance of trebling up knowing your possibly 3rd best pre flop A3 is so not the hand u are nearly always dominated by another ace in this position Wait for some suited connectors if you want to play this way