Need opinion on a play from two views!!!

Poker & Pints

MTT with 26 runners left..top 20 paid...real money for top 5...

Average stack about 14k, I have 5.6k. I have been card dead for quite a while and lost a lot in blinds(not much of a chance to even put a play on).

blinds: 400/800 I get AQspades in the BB. Folds to MP(average stack) who makes it 2400 to play. Fold to me. Based on this guys play I decided to push AI because I felt I was in a race situation at the worst and could be ahead. He ended up turning 66. I caught an A on flop and he caught his set of 6 on the river. I got my race and it didn't work out.

I pushed and it didn't work out. But lets change the scenario and say I just called. I then have 3200 left. flop came A,10,2. I could push AI here. Would you fold as the MP player to this bet with 66??? And in your opinion which is the better play...the AI preflop or the AI post flop if you hit w/ a laydown if you don't hit?

I replayed this over in my head....My thinking was I was trying to win the tourney(make the final table at least), not just get into the money.

Culchie

I think it was set up lovely for a Stop and Go move for you, especially as you thought it was a race.

Hectorjelly

the problem with your thinking is that you would actually want 66 to call on that flop.

fuzzbox

Culchie wrote:

I think it was set up lovely for a Stop and Go move for you, especially as you thought it was a race.

If you had 66, then stop and go is a good play.

If you had AQ then push is the play.

Its all good.

Culchie

fuzzbox wrote:

If you had 66, then stop and go is a good play.

If you had AQ then push is the play.

Its all good.

More about position than cards really (IMO) It's all good.

Hitman Actual

With your stack size, just calling with the intention of laying down if you miss is bad. You're going to miss two times out of three, leaving yourself crippled. Plus you've now less folding equity if you instead decide to push your missed flop. Push pre-flop with your AQ, and see all five cards like your AQ deserves!

Poker & Pints

would you call the AI preflop? postflop to the bet? I just want to see peoples thinking on the other end as well.

Thanks

Culchie

lenny_leonard wrote:

With your stack size, just calling with the intention of laying down if you miss is bad. You're going to miss two times out of three, leaving yourself crippled. Plus you've now less folding equity if you instead decide to push your missed flop. Push pre-flop with your AQ, and see all five cards like your AQ deserves!

Nothing wrong with this play Lenny, but I like the stop and go here.

We have a good hand, we are not folding, and we're seeing 5 cards definitely.
We can't make Villian fold preflop because of stack size.

The 'race' is only a 'race' if Villian also sees 5 cards.

The stop and go move makes it more difficult for him to call if he missed the flop, so any % of folding further tips the percentages in our favour.

Culchie

Poker & Pints wrote:

would you call the AI preflop? postflop to the bet? I just want to see peoples thinking on the other end as well.

Thanks

That's the beauty of the Stop and Go move.

Calling with 66 when there's overcards to the board.

Tough one isn't it?

ecksor

Poker & Pints wrote:

would you call the AI preflop?

There's 2400+5600+400 = 8400 in the pot if I'm reading your post correctly and I need to put in another 3200 to call. That's an easy call for me (bear in mind that I often make "how on earth did he call that" calls and turn out to be crushed).

postflop to the bet? I just want to see peoples thinking on the other end as well.

Depends. I have called short-stacks in this spot recently with 3 overcards on the board and been ahead but not with an ace on the board. The problem with stop and go is that people see it coming and know what you are doing, so they may actually ignore the board to a certain extent and consider their odds against your range a bit closer.

Nice situation recently: I'm in the blinds and I have 44. Shorty makes standard raise and gets two callers including myself. I miss the flop and the flop is all overcards, no ace. I think the chances of being ahead of short stack are really good, but I have no idea where the other caller is at. Shorty pushes all-in as you'd expect, late position folds and I call getting a great price and discover I'm a 3 to 1 favourite over the shorty's u****roved A9.

Culchie

ecksor wrote:

The problem with stop and go is that people see it coming and know what you are doing, so they may actually ignore the board to a certain extent and consider their odds against your range a bit closer.

Well, even if they do know what you're up to and call, all the chips are going in and it's our 'race' again according to preflop %'s ... so it's the same as if all the chips were in preflop.

You're sticking with your hand come hell or high water anyway, and you haven't enough chips to make your opponent fold to an All In preflop.

It's the times they fold that makes it a long term profitable play.

fuzzbox

Ok - heres a thought guys ....

We hold AQs

What if villain happens to have AJ, and we only call preflop, and then push on a K87 flop.
Villain folds AJ

Have we made a good play?


The reason why you stop and go more often with 66, is because it is rare for you to be able to push somebody off AJ or KJ or KQ preflop, but when they miss postflop, they *migh* be able to fold. Plus, if you push and get called, its rare that you are a big favourite.

The reason why you push with AQ, is precisely because villains probably wont fold AJ or KJ or KQ or whatever, so you are often EITHER a big favourite OR a small underdog ... but you are a big favourite against the range of hands that they will call with. Thus, push is better.

Culchie

Can't argue with that Fuzz, if he's holding a dominated Ace then push is obviously the move.

It's all the other hands and pairs you have to factor in as well, and AK.

Position instead of cards for me. It's hard for any hand that didn't improve to call.

ecksor

Culchie wrote:

Well, even if they do know what you're up to and call, all the chips are going in and it's our 'race' again according to preflop %'s ... so it's the same as if all the chips were in preflop.

Not sure I agree with that reasoning. Example from a cash game, I call a largish pre-flop raise from a very fast player with JJ and the flop comes raggy. Villian bets enough to get me all-in and I call, he's holding up AK hoping and praying to hit a pair, but misses. Now, of course he could have had an overpair and perhaps I'd fold JJ with an ace on the board to a TT but in this situation it seems to me that the AK/AQ prefers to be all-in pre-flop so why let them if it means I can commit the majority of my money post-flop with a larger edge. Of course this may be incorrect reasoning since conversely they might not put in any more money if they miss the flop and I was a favourite pre-flop anyway.

You're sticking with your hand come hell or high water anyway, and you haven't enough chips to make your opponent fold to an All In preflop.

It's the times they fold that makes it a long term profitable play.

I think the crucial thing is what makes them fold. For example, in my above example I say "not with an ace on board", which is a psychological flaw in my reasoning since I might fold TT against 88 on an AK9 board.

fuzzbox

Culchie wrote:

Can't argue with that Fuzz, if he's holding a dominated Ace then push is obviously the move.

It's all the other hands and pairs you have to factor in as well, and AK.

Position instead of cards for me. It's hard for any hand that didn't improve to call.

Culchie ... alas, most of the time we play poker, our opponents do not let us see their cards before we act. I know its a flaw in the game, but we must deal with it.

Thus - the move must stack up Vs his range of hands .... not against what he holds this particular time.

Pushing with AQ is good because ....
some1 might fold 66, or 55, or 44 or maybe even 77.
PPl call with dominated hands such as AJ, AT, A9, KQ, QJ and so on.

Calling with 66, and shoving is good because, ppl probably dont fold too many bigger pairs ... but they MIGHT on an AQ7 flop (holding 88 for example). 66% of the time we see the flop and are a favourite against missed overcards ... who might then fold to a bet (AJ on a Q52 board). This is good as we avoid a 50/50 situation.
We pay for this benefit by sometimes pushing into somebody who has hit the flop and we have hardly any outs ... but we were commited regardless, so this makes no difference to our overall outcome (i.e. we would have pushed preflop, and they would have called, and we would lose regardless).

Culchie

fuzzbox wrote:

Culchie ... alas, most of the time we play poker, our opponents do not let us see their cards before we act. I know its a flaw in the game, but we must deal with it.

Thus - the move must stack up Vs his range of hands .... not against what he holds this particular time.

Pushing with AQ is good because ....
some1 might fold 66, or 55, or 44 or maybe even 77.
PPl call with dominated hands such as AJ, AT, A9, KQ, QJ and so on.

Calling with 66, and shoving is good because, ppl probably dont fold too many bigger pairs ... but they MIGHT on an AQ7 flop (holding 88 for example). 66% of the time we see the flop and are a favourite against missed overcards ... who might then fold to a bet (AJ on a Q52 board). This is good as we avoid a 50/50 situation.
We pay for this benefit by sometimes pushing into somebody who has hit the flop and we have hardly any outs ... but we were commited regardless, so this makes no difference to our overall outcome (i.e. we would have pushed preflop, and they would have called, and we would lose regardless).

I don't think we're disagreeing here anyway.

Regardless of hand value, If I know the raiser won't fold and at the same time, I can't afford to lose the blinds, stop and go is effective....when first to act on the flop.

If there is some folding equity, then fine, you push.

Either way, preflop, decision has been made to stick in all the chips. Worst case scenario with Stop and Go, is that you're called, and the average stats look after themselves, the same as if we pushed preflop and was called.

It's from the folds that you benefit.

tbh, the opportunites to practice a Stop and Go are quite few and far between in reality anyway.

Poker & Pints

Culchie wrote:

Well, even if they do know what you're up to and call, all the chips are going in and it's our 'race' again according to preflop %'s ... so it's the same as if all the chips were in preflop.

You're sticking with your hand come hell or high water anyway, and you haven't enough chips to make your opponent fold to an All In preflop.

It's the times they fold that makes it a long term profitable play.

I think this is what I would lean towards.

Norwich Fan Rob

pushing is better with AK AQ, and u can get smaller pairs to fold sometimes, and also hands like AJ may call for their stack. They wont call the stop and go unless they improve.

You are happier to get all in with AK pre flop than the like of 77, as AK is unlikely to be worse than 50/50, whereas 77 can be dominated.

S&G works well with the likes of 55, 66 etc, i like to push these, as often 2 overs or even a bigger pair can fold post flop, and its good to only give the overs 3 cards instead of 5.