MTT down to 5 handed - AKs on the Button...

Lex

First off, micro gaming hand histories suck! but anyway...

$25 FO on Ladbrokes. Over 150 runners.
I've knocked out 2 guys at the final talbe and have just over 1/3 of the chips in play.
I've been raising most hands to keep the pressure on the others but getting out of the way when JBabs pushes into the pot before me.
He's taken a hit a little while back and he's looking for a double up by pushing once or twice every orbit with shown Ace,rag a few times when everyone folds.
I see AdKd on the button and I'm hoping he gets involved. He duly obliges with a push UTG. His range is any pair or any Ace and I plan on making the call.

The prob is that Godfather_ gets there first and pushes in like a flash! This rattles me a bit as Godfather_ has been weak tight the whole time we're at the Final Table so far. I haven't played with him on any other table up to this so that's all I have to go on. He's folded his SB to me several times already when it's been folded around to him and when he's completed the SB he's check-folded to me as I've bet every flop. I have not seen him showdown many hands at all. I'm thinking he need a strong Ace or decent pair to get into the pot so eagerly.

** $4,000 GTD $25 Freezeout:Table 9 [Multi Table Hold 'em] (No Limit - MTT) Real Money

- Godfather_ sitting in seat 2 with $31380.00
- Lex994 sitting in seat 3 with $82047.50 [Dealer]
- IFKGBG sitting in seat 4 with $34014.18
- EunyTheSwa sitting in seat 8 with $51978.32
- JBabs sitting in seat 10 with $24080.00

** Dealing card to Lex994: Ace of Diamonds, King of Diamonds

IFKGBG posted the small blind - $2000.00
EunyTheSwa posted the big blind - $4000.00
JBabs went all-in - $24080.00
Godfather_ went all-in - $31380.00
Lex994 ???

So what's my move? Who pushes? Who folds?

RoundTower

I would push, you're all hopelessly short stacked and no way does Godfather have to have a big hand, he has 4BB and however weak tight he is he can be getting involved with A4 and KJ now.

Norwich Fan Rob

personally, id push.........u still have 50k if u lose, and a monster lead with 3 left if u win..............reasonable chance he has AQ, maybe even AJ, given he knows utg could have Ax............also, if shorty calls, u are probably getting near 2/1...........tightys range there is way higher than a premium pp.

Edit: just noticed BB is 8k, more reason to push, the others would all have a huge range.

Washout

Im pushing, would reckon im against Ax and TT-QQ (tight player)

dont think the blinds are calling your push either unless theyve got premium hands.

fuzzbox

Washout wrote:

Im pushing, would reckon im against Ax and TT-QQ (tight player)

dont think the blinds are calling your push either unless theyve got premium hands.

And if this is true .... your equity is .......?

El Stuntman

what's the prize structure? usually big gap between 5th and 3rd (which you will be all but guaranteed after this hand) in these type of events

I would be very tempted to let them at it but then I am a weak-tight, weak-ass weakling :cool:

Gholimoli

you have to call 31K to win something like 67K.
thats more than 2:1 .
your equity against their range is 33%:

Hand 1: 38.4484 % 33.88% 04.57% { AdKd }
Hand 2: 25.2449 % 23.68% 01.56% { 22+, A5s+, KQs, A5o+, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 36.3067 % 32.46% 03.85% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ }

so your getting 2:1 on your money on a 3:1 shot.
fold is the right play here.however if you do call and win you will knock out 2 ppl and get in a very good position to win the thing to the missing odds you need are kind of compensated that way .

RoundTower

Gholimoli wrote:

you have to call 31K to win something like 67K.
thats more than 2:1 .
your equity against their range is 33%:

Hand 1: 38.4484 % 33.88% 04.57% { AdKd }
Hand 2: 25.2449 % 23.68% 01.56% { 22+, A5s+, KQs, A5o+, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 36.3067 % 32.46% 03.85% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ }

so your getting 2:1 on your money on a 3:1 shot.

something is very wrong with your basic mathematics. And I think the first guy's range is a lot looser than that, he is down to 4BB and is pushing regularly.

Gholimoli

RoundTower wrote:

something is very wrong with your basic mathematics. And I think the first guy's range is a lot looser than that, he is down to 4BB and is pushing regularly.

the way it was calculated:
he has to call:
31K (from big stack)
to win
31K + 24K(small stack) + 8K(BB) + 4K(SB)= 67K
67/31= 2.1:1 (i said more than 2:1)
as for the range i went by what the OP puts him on and he said in his post its Ax or any pair.

am wrong in the math?

RoundTower

If you win 33% of the time you are on a 2-1 shot, not 3-1.

jd

Gholimoli wrote:

31K + 24K(small stack) + 8K(BB) + 4K(SB)= 67K
67/31= 2.1:1 (i said more than 2:1)
as for the range i went by what the OP puts him on and he said in his post its Ax or any pair.

am wrong in the math?

aprox
+67/3k -31/3k-24/4k=~+6k ??

if sidepot in last case is 50/50

Gholimoli

RoundTower wrote:

If you win 33% of the time you are on a 2-1 shot, not 3-1.

some how the whole thing didnt make sense to me either and i knew the 33% equity was good enough to call but i didnt know where i was wrong.
in that case its a call then.

Norwich Fan Rob

U are cheap leader, u have less than 10 BBs

How on earth can you pass up blig slick here.

The fundamental point is the other 2 have 3 and 4 BBs respectively.

They have a massive range

You are most likely miles in front.

If not you should have a 50/50 vs a pocket pair.

We are getting 2/1 on your money.

Most tourneys are top heavy, u need to aim to win.

I wouldnt pass this in a million years.

You win this u have most of the chips in play 3 handed.

You lose it and u still have 50k, in 2nd position.

I would struggle to pass AJ or 88 in this situation.

RoundTower

I think I would pass AJ here with the description of the second guy, not sure about 88.

Lex

Obv I'm calling the first guy in a heartbeat. But tbh the second guys immediate push really threw me for a loop!
I really thought his range was narrow here but Roundtower is spot on with the fact that he could be going for it with face cards against the kown aggressive shorty.

I couldnt figure that out at the time and ended up letting the timer run out and fold me. The way I figured at the time was that I could have a real go against loose player A if he won the pot and I basically could bully tighty enough to get alot of chips if he won it.
But as has been correctly pointed out, with the guys pushing short-stacked I should be taking this great opportunity to take most of the chips on the table. So I turned into El Stuntman and passed!!

Plyr A turned over AQs and Plyr B flipped AQo
No help on the board and they chop it! :eek:

I went on to win the thing anyway but I could have saved myslef alot of time if I just "ballsed up" and pushed like I knkow I should have.

Lex

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

I would struggle to pass AJ or 88 in this situation.

I'm prob passing every non pair here except Big slick. But yea, I'm deffo calling with 88+...

fuzzbox

Gholimoli wrote:

you have to call 31K to win something like 67K.
thats more than 2:1 .
your equity against their range is 33%:

Hand 1: 38.4484 % 33.88% 04.57% { AdKd }
Hand 2: 25.2449 % 23.68% 01.56% { 22+, A5s+, KQs, A5o+, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 36.3067 % 32.46% 03.85% { 99+, AJs+, AJo+ }

so your getting 2:1 on your money on a 3:1 shot.
fold is the right play here.however if you do call and win you will knock out 2 ppl and get in a very good position to win the thing to the missing odds you need are kind of compensated that way .

Gholi - 33% equity = 2:1 shot.

Lex

Also, I have 20BB left...... so I'm not short.
The other 2 are tho.

Orig post edited to remove 4,000/8,000 from top of hand hist.
Blinds are actually 2k/4k as is shown later on in the hist.
God damn it those micro gaming HH's really do suck!! :mad:

Norwich Fan Rob

slightly diff if blinds are 2k/4k and not 4k/8k, i would have passed the AJ also, was just trying to emphasise the point that they had a wide range.

El Stuntman

Lex wrote:

So I turned into El Stuntman and passed!!

Plyr A turned over AQs and Plyr B flipped AQo
No help on the board and they chop it! :eek:

Impressive metamorphisis Lex!! Glad you won the damn thing anyway

sometimes the tortoise does win the race...personally I think AK is one of the most overrated hands in poker but there you go...

I know nothing anyway!!

Lex

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

slightly diff if blinds are 2k/4k and not 4k/8k, i would have passed the AJ also, was just trying to emphasise the point that they had a wide range.

Yep, your dead right about the range. Pity I couldnt figure it out at the time! That 20 secs flew by I'll tell ya!

RoundTower

If the stacks are twice as deep I still call, passing is somewhat forgivable now though.