3/6 AK hand, raised on the river

fuzzbox

3/6 NL 6-max Party

Dont really know the villain.

I have 700, villain has 550

Preflop
Hero opens to 21 utg with AhKh, villain calls, one more callers.

Flop (72)
Jh Tc 8h
Good and bad ... Hero leads for 35, villain calls, everybody else folds (also good and bad)

Turn (142)
Ks
Once more, good and bad. Hero leads for 70, villain calls

River (282)
2c
Having 450ish in our stacks ... hero leads for 155, villain pushes, your move batman.

spectre

With no read on my opponent I'm folding here. Surely your TPTK is no good here. It sounds like villain has played the hand poorly but has you beat. If he's an idiot he could have AA, 2 pair, a set or a straight.

iBoT

em i think you should call him, either has played a set badly or i has 2 pair, maybe he just has a pair Js but i think u need to call 155 considering how much is the in the pot.

fuzzbox

Its 300 to call.

iBoT

k sorry i misread i think you should have checked to him on the river, but i think its a fold, at worst he has 2 pair.

fuzzbox

Why would I check to him?

shoutman

I dont think a check on the river is the right option but I probably would of played this hand differently.
The whole way along you do not have a clue what your opponent has, maybe a feeler bet on the turn or river, fold to a reraise...

Obviously its hard not knowing your opponent but for me this is a fold.

fuzzbox

Shouty - explain why you fold, what does villain have?

iBoT

simply to minumise the size of the pot because he aint betting with nothing, if you didnt bet on the river, he would nt have pushed, mayb then you could have justified calling a bet on the river, i ve got the feeling you got to a showdown anyway any results ?

oh yea i might of reraised on the turn to see where i was at if i was playing it

fuzzbox

iBot .... please dont take this the wrong way ... but would you read the post again. .

I cant reraise the turn - I was the one who bet, he just called.

What hands do you think he will bet with on the river if I check to him?

spectre

The only hand that I could put him on that you beat is KQ, missed the straight but hit his King, he may believe that he's actually ahead with this one hence the push but if he had KQ would he not raise the turn?

I dunno, what hands do you think you're beating fuzz besides a bluff or KQ?

iBoT

ive read it again ok ive thinking mayb he had J9 J7 and hes trying to semi bluff the pot or else hes a fitz player with j2 or 22 i would be really tempted to call to see what he got, even tho i think its not right action to take.

Ollieboy

Its very hard to put him on a hand here, he could have a straight, AQ etc, or also AK, or J10/KJfor 2 pairs, or trips or he could have just missed the flush, seen as he show no strenght in the hand till the river.

I would find it hard to call here and when in doubt I like to fold this hand. I think you have to be behind, but you would need more of a read on this player and if he's played this hand that badly, you'll get your money back soon enough, I think 300 is to much to call.

White Knight

spectre wrote:

The only hand that I could put him on that you beat is KQ, missed the straight but hit his King, he may believe that he's actually ahead with this one hence the push but if he had KQ would he not raise the turn?

I dunno, what hands do you think you're beating fuzz besides a bluff?

I originally thought that also. However more I think about it, I see it as a badly played pair of Q's. The villain has played it poorly and thinks he can get away with it with the push on the end.

fuzzbox

spectre - but what does he play this way ... that isnt a bluff?

Gholimoli

it is hard to put him on a hand but lets see what we can do.
we can safely say he dosent have a set .the board is too coordinated for him to slow play a set unless he made his set on the river which means he has been calling your bets all along with 22 which is not likely.

JT is a hand he could have but then again for the same reason i think he would have reraised you before the river to protect his hand.

AQ is the most likely hand he could have that has you beat seen as the K came very late and on hte turn and we can assume he flet it was safe to push the river as oppose to reraising the turn.

another very likely hand is 99 here.
the play makes perfect sense.
he flops up and down str draw.
he calls your bets in hte hope of making the str and he misses and then pushes the river as a bluff.
your getting a bit more than 2:1 on your call.
seen as there are more ways for him to have the AQ than 99 i think this is a foold.

spectre

Call flop, call turn, push blank river yes certainly looks like a missed draw. But you have no idea who your playing.

You're up against either:

Player type A: idiot slowplaying a set, 2-pair, aces
Player type B: Standard player who missed his draw

This is a random poker player you've sat down with. Is it +EV to call 892/300 under these circumstances....maybe. What say you Fuzz?

fuzzbox

Not bad Gholi - good analysis.

fuzzbox

Ok guys - results
Right - he called preflop - so that could mean anything.
He called me on the flop - which also could be a big hand/draw/AJ or something.
He only called the turn though - which is almost certainly a draw/weak-made hand.

then a total blank appears on the river, and he pushes .... but surely he cannot slowplay a big hand on this type of board.

So I called, figuring that he must be bluffing enough to make this good.

He had QQ, and MHIG.

I think this is a v.interesting hand. Thanks for all the discussion.

Bozzer

Gholimoli wrote:

another very likely hand is 99 here.
the play makes perfect sense.
he flops up and down str draw.
he calls your bets in hte hope of making the str and he misses and then pushes the river as a bluff.
your getting a bit more than 2:1 on your call.
seen as there are more ways for him to have the AQ than 99 i think this is a foold.

he's getting almost 3:1 on the river. If villain can have 99 here, then can he not also have T9/98. A busted flush is possible too. Once you factor these hands into your river decision then you can see why a call is better(taking into account villain's passive play thus far on this board).
On a side note, there are 12 combinations of AQ and 6 combinations of 99, so if you were somehow sure that villain had to have one of these two hands then the river is a call, getting nearly 3:1 on a 2:1 shot(this is assuming he is equally likely to play both hands this way - if you weight their likelihood then it could be a fold).

fuzzbox

Villain could also have QJ, KQ, QT and so on.

shoutman

Interesting hand alright I too had him on QQ,99 or possibly ttwo pair.

Hectorjelly

I think I prefer checking the river, I dont think there are too many hands that will call a bet there (other than KQ and that will often raise the turn), and then calling a bet regardless of size.

RoundTower

I also prefer checking the river. As played I wanted to fold.

fuzzbox

The reason I didnt check, is because I held most of the draws, so I figured he might have a little something to pay me off with, and I didnt think he would bluff if I checked, because he prolly had something to show down.

I thought about passing, but, for the reasons explained, his actions didnt add up ... and the 2c certainly didnt make his hand.

Goodluck2me

i agree, a set here is very unlikely, the only thing which i think could make a set more likely is that he may have thought he was behind from the flop and hoped for the board to pair when it didnt he pushed and crossed his fingers. he could also have something like 9hTh.. and when he didnt improve he just tried to take a stab at it. also what position was the villain in?

cardshark202

Nice play fuzz. Interesting hand. At first I preferred checking the river in this spot but I now like the river bet. wp

Samba

God what a donkey, that's a mighty fine flop for QQ, I don't understand how he did not re-raise, PF and on the flop? if you come back over the top, we then know we don't have the best hand, 6 handed QQ is a monster.

He has position over you, it's 6 Seater, this is a woefully played monster and he deserved to be punished.

A very good call on the river Fuzzbox.

I often see this type of play and oh so often it is a very bad bluff.


"You don't know the villain" you say, the tricky part about these situations is sifting the bluffs from the monsters, more inexperienced players would generally play a monster like this.

So my question is, what was the decisive moment which made you call?

In live play, this would be easy, it's hands like these online which are extremely tricky.

RoundTower

Incidentally why the small bets? Would you normally lead for half the pot on flop and turn on this very drawish board with, say, TT? AA?

Hectorjelly

The QQ all in would of been much better if one of the draws got there

cardshark202

RoundTower wrote:

Incidentally why the small bets? Would you normally lead for half the pot on flop and turn on this very drawish board with, say, TT? AA?

This is a good point, one which I failed to notice in all the hoohah of the good river lead and call.

The Snapper

Top marks to white knight. His call was spot on.

Very interesting post thank you, and very well played fuzz.:cool: