Saturday 29.04.06

Crumbs

3:20 Sandown

I took a nice price on My Will earlier in the week. He's been declared with Ruby Walsh to ride and trainer, Paul Nicholls, has also left Royal Auclair in at the head of the weights to leave My Will on a nice 11-2. A few weeks ago, this horse was mentioned in a thread here (masterK?) along with the likes of Redemption as becoming infuriating to follow but I think that My Will has just been handicapped to his best at distances up to 3 miles. Now stepped up to 3m5f, I think we can see an improved run from him. The main concern is the ground as he seems to prefer it soft but I don't think it will inconvenience him too much. Hopefully Sandown will water tonight. Available at around 11/1 and I think he'll start a bit shorter than that.


2:40 Sandown

Dempsey was considered a live outsider for the Champion Chase by many but we failed to see how that would have panned out when he was brought down in that Cheltenham race. While I don't think he's up to that standard, he's still a very good 2-miler and should be capable of taking this race. He'll enjoy the good ground and goes well at this C&D. Nyrche is a good novice but shouldn't be good enough yet to beat Dempsey. Touching 2/1 at the moment, which is a great price. EDIT: Dempsey a N/R


2:10 Sandown

I'm siding with New Entic at the moment but may change my mind in the morning when I take all factors into account. The worry is the possible quick ground as his form looks much better on soft. The fav here, Herakles, beat him by 1½ lengths last time but is 2lbs worse off now and New Entic is more than twice his price. Trainer in fine form lately and might be worth an e/w bet at what should be 14/1 or bigger.


What say you?

iloveireland

i have tw2o tips

perez in the in the 4:30 leicester - 10/1
etlaala - 4:00 leicester - banker 2/1 very hard name to spell.

iloveireland

dfds

scojones

:eek:

fade2black

Savage stuff.

masterK

The world and his uncle are going to be on Etlaala today, his seasonal reappearance was eyecatching to say the least and he went into everybodies notebook as one to follow and maybe this season fulfil his 2 year old promise. You'll be doing well to get 2/1, he'll more like evens.

And by the way savage stuff altogether.

hiscan

my will is at 8/1 with paddy power now

masterK

Crumbs wrote:

3:20 Sandown

I took a nice price on My Will earlier in the week. He's been declared with Ruby Walsh to ride and trainer, Paul Nicholls, has also left Royal Auclair in at the head of the weights to leave My Will on a nice 11-2. A few weeks ago, this horse was mentioned in a thread here (masterK?) along with the likes of Redemption as becoming infuriating to follow but I think that My Will has just been handicapped to his best at distances up to 3 miles. Now stepped up to 3m5f, I think we can see an improved run from him. The main concern is the ground as he seems to prefer it soft but I don't think it will inconvenience him too much. Hopefully Sandown will water tonight. Available at around 11/1 and I think he'll start a bit shorter than that.

That was me alright that mentioned My Will and I will be foolishly backing him again today. I actually think he's a very well handicapped horse. He's only 1lb higher than his last win and off the same mark as when 2nd in Grade 2 chase. Remember he's still only a 6 year old and open to plenty more improvement. I think the step up in trip will suit him judging by the way he finished behind Innox over 3M1. The big problem with this horse is his jumping, he loses so much ground at every 2nd fence due to poor jumps. Although the fences at Sandown aren't all that tough they do come thick and fast so that is again the concern today.

My other bet in the race will be on Eric's Charm, he's only had 2 races this season so will be fresh. I always find as this time of the year in the jumps season it pays to go with the fresh horses as quite a lot of todays field are at the end of a long hard season.

finnpark

iloveireland wrote:

perez in the in the 4:30 leicester - 10/1

This is over 20/1, thats a savage price and Im staying away.:(

masterK

finnpark wrote:

This is over 20/1, thats a savage price and Im staying away.:(

Ye but if it wins you'll make a savage profit.

finnpark

Horse Tracker informs me Connaught Hall is out today in 1st at Punch. This horse was entered in 12 races I think in the last 3 weeks and withdrawn from every single one, its very rare you see such a thing. This leads me to believe it is out to win today, first time over hurdles but obviously connections were waiting for right race and right conditions. Pretty sure Each Way bet if betting market indicates. At > 3/1 I reccommend EW on this. I would be very surprised if outside top 2 or 3. Goodluck.

Greenwhich Meantime 3.40pm Ripon is my Handicap hopeful.

Lay
Blue Corrig Punch 4.10pm.
Overall lay system going ok, would be very confident about this baby today so 2pt LAY

eirebhoy

Etlaala is 11/10 early price.

finnpark

finnpark wrote:

first time over hurdles

Meant to say, first time on good ground.

fade2black

Two for tonight for me:

Questive

I think this horse is a serious good thing today and if he's odds against you should be heading up to the credit union for back up funds...:D

Won with seemingly more to give on his turf debut, beating a decent Michael Bell horse called Juniper Girl, whose since come out and won. Questive was burdened with my hard earned yesterday but was withdrawen late cause of unsuitable ground. Should definitely run and win today.

Scooby Dude in the 6:15 is one at a decent price that should take a lot of beating. I've kept one eye on this horse since its first race last year. He looked a winner waiting to happen on its debut but although it has won a couple of times, it never really fulfilled the promise of its debut. Nevertheless, its half length second when seemingly unfacied in 0-90 company last time looks appealing in this inferior company. Going, distance etc no problem and it pays to follow a srinter who's in form. Possible that it comes good this time of year also.

For the big one today, I'll take One Knight to pop out in front and show them all a clean pair of hooves. Great each way price at 20-1.

scojones

Crumbs, I'd watch out for Herakles in the 2.10 at Sandown. Has already proven itself on good and soft ground, beating New Entic last time out at Fontwell. Herakles is currently 5/1 and New Entic is 10s. Might be worth doing a bit of dutching to be honest. I wouldn't be surprised to see Fontanesi go close either. Looks like a good competitive race

4.55 Sandown I notice my friend Hail The Chief is out again today. The last time I tipped this it won easily enough, when the racingpost made a mistake and claimed that the ground did not suit it. This is a very tough race today but if there is improvement left in this horse it should be there or thereabouts. Currently trading at 13/2 I think it's a nice bet.

Etlaala is savage to spell. Bloody 'eck!

DeadParrot

finnpark wrote:

This is over 20/1, thats a savage price and Im staying away.:(

16s on Paddypower.
As a fan of savage bets I'll havea small ew on it

DeadParrot

fade2black wrote:

Two for tonight for me:

Questive

I think this horse is a serious good thing today and if he's odds against you should be heading up to the credit union for back up funds...:D

Won with seemingly more to give on his turf debut, beating a decent Michael Bell horse called Juniper Girl, whose since come out and won. Questive was burdened with my hard earned yesterday but was withdrawen late cause of unsuitable ground. Should definitely run and win today.
.

questive is a N/R

finnpark

finnpark wrote:

Horse Tracker informs me Connaught Hall is out today in 1st at Punch. This horse was entered in 12 races I think in the last 3 weeks and withdrawn from every single one, its very rare you see such a thing. This leads me to believe it is out to win today, first time over hurdles but obviously connections were waiting for right race and right conditions. Pretty sure Each Way bet if betting market indicates. At > 3/1 I reccommend EW on this. I would be very surprised if outside top 2 or 3. Goodluck.

:eek: Backed from 11/4 into 6/4. Thats the last time I post a tip here:D . Thankfully I got on at 11/4, hopefully it will do the business.

fade2black

DeadParrot wrote:

questive is a N/R

Arse biscuits.

finnpark

Big race at Sandown today, think Eric's Charm is overpriced at 17/2 on Betfair . With 4 places been paid I reckon its good Each Way Value if you want to back the race. One worrying factor is the amount its been layed off for it on Betfair, currently £1400 been offered which is worrying and it may not suit the trip. The only other one that I could see is Liberthine at 13/1 but since Pricewise tipped this it is bound to get hammered.:D . But it does like the ground and is extremely well weighted considering its top of the Racing Post ratings.;)

Any views???

Crumbs

My Will ran very well I thought. Given a very patient ride and ran all the way to the line for a close-up 3rd at an SP of 8/1. He should be winning some staying chases next season. Very glad to see Lacdoudal win though. He's such a relentless galloper and jumper but often finishes placed in big races rather than winning. A smashing horse. Savage, even.

As for New Entic earlier, he drifted alarmingly in the betting but still put in a sound display. He was always prominent and looked like he might be able to stay on for a place but faded over the last two.

scojones

What a superb win by Lacdoudal, considering it was just about taken out of it by Mr Fluffy. Super stuff

[nicK]

masterK wrote:

That was me alright that mentioned My Will and I will be foolishly backing him again today. I actually think he's a very well handicapped horse. He's only 1lb higher than his last win and off the same mark as when 2nd in Grade 2 chase. Remember he's still only a 6 year old and open to plenty more improvement. I think the step up in trip will suit him judging by the way he finished behind Innox over 3M1. The big problem with this horse is his jumping, he loses so much ground at every 2nd fence due to poor jumps. Although the fences at Sandown aren't all that tough they do come thick and fast so that is again the concern today.

My other bet in the race will be on Eric's Charm, he's only had 2 races this season so will be fresh. I always find as this time of the year in the jumps season it pays to go with the fresh horses as quite a lot of todays field are at the end of a long hard season.

took the two of these thanks to your analysis.. got the each way value but could have been so much sweeter if there was another furlong

i notice iloveireland's tip also came in.. savage!

scojones

sjones wrote:

4.55 Sandown I notice my friend Hail The Chief is out again today. The last time I tipped this it won easily enough, when the racingpost made a mistake and claimed that the ground did not suit it. This is a very tough race today but if there is improvement left in this horse it should be there or thereabouts. Currently trading at 13/2 I think it's a nice bet.

Second at 8/1. Each way value.

fade2black

Lost by a whisker jonesy....was savage unlucky.

scojones

fade2black wrote:

Lost by a whisker jonesy....was savage unlucky.

Savage indeed boss. Sums up my day today with Dix Villez eh?

retenzo

Can we start a "SAVAGE TIPS" thread?

finnpark

finnpark wrote:

Horse Tracker informs me Connaught Hall is out today in 1st at Punch. This horse was entered in 12 races I think in the last 3 weeks and withdrawn from every single one, its very rare you see such a thing. This leads me to believe it is out to win today, first time over hurdles but obviously connections were waiting for right race and right conditions. Pretty sure Each Way bet if betting market indicates. At > 3/1 I reccommend EW on this. I would be very surprised if outside top 2 or 3. Goodluck.

Beaten in photo finish, got on each way at 11/4

finnpark wrote:

Greenwhich Meantime 3.40pm Ripon is my Handicap hopeful.

WINNER Easily at 5/2 SP.

finnpark wrote:

Lay
Blue Corrig Punch 4.10pm.
Overall lay system going ok, would be very confident about this baby today so 2pt LAY

Layed the hell out of this today. My system is still making a lot of money. I think this favourite was lapped, finished about last.

finnpark wrote:

Eric's Charm

Was on this at 8/1, 2nd

finnpark wrote:

Liberhtime

Was on this ew also at 12/1 and it came in 4th so happy days.

Goods tips here all round. Made 500+ euro profit today, soon time for a withdrawl again:D

scojones

fade2black wrote:

Scooby Dude in the 6:15 is one at a decent price that should take a lot of beating. I've kept one eye on this horse since its first race last year. He looked a winner waiting to happen on its debut but although it has won a couple of times, it never really fulfilled the promise of its debut. Nevertheless, its half length second when seemingly unfacied in 0-90 company last time looks appealing in this inferior company. Going, distance etc no problem and it pays to follow a srinter who's in form. Possible that it comes good this time of year also.

2nd at 13/2. Fair play man. I'll keep an eye on this lad in the future.

eirebhoy

Etlaala made for a nervy finish but thankfully got over the line first.

If you look at the Adrian Massey ratings. The races with the biggest rating gap between highest rated and 2nd highest rated were 2.00 Market Rasen and 4.00 Leicester. In The 2.00 City of Manchester was 80 points better off than 2nd highest, Seraph.
Etlaala was 103 points better off than Philharmonic. Both horses won. If you picked 2 horses from Massey's ratings every day you're pretty much guaranteed a decent profit over a few months or so.

Tomorrow's horses would be:
2.00 Ludlow - Dance with Wolves (45)
2.20 Wetherby - Canada Street (79)

scojones

He rates Dock Tower 95 ahead of anything else in the 3.30 at Wetherby

finnpark

eirebhoy wrote:

Etlaala made for a nervy finish but thankfully got over the line first.

If you look at the Adrian Massey ratings. The races with the biggest rating gap between highest rated and 2nd highest rated were 2.00 Market Rasen and 4.00 Leicester. In The 2.00 City of Manchester was 80 points better off than 2nd highest, Seraph.
Etlaala was 103 points better off than Philharmonic. Both horses won. If you picked 2 horses from Massey's ratings every day you're pretty much guaranteed a decent profit over a few months or so.

Tomorrow's horses would be:
2.00 Ludlow - Dance with Wolves (45)
2.20 Wetherby - Canada Street (79)

In my opinion the Racing Post ratings are the best. Plus you have all the other essential details right there beside you also. I cannot see there been an advantage in using Massey's systems

finnpark

eirebhoy wrote:

Etlaala made for a nervy finish but thankfully got over the line first.

If you look at the Adrian Massey ratings. The races with the biggest rating gap between highest rated and 2nd highest rated were 2.00 Market Rasen and 4.00 Leicester. In The 2.00 City of Manchester was 80 points better off than 2nd highest, Seraph.
Etlaala was 103 points better off than Philharmonic. Both horses won. If you picked 2 horses from Massey's ratings every day you're pretty much guaranteed a decent profit over a few months or so.

Tomorrow's horses would be:
2.00 Ludlow - Dance with Wolves (45)
2.20 Wetherby - Canada Street (79)

Just having a look there. Good job alright. He could make his site a bit better looking but the quality of the ratings look impressive at first glance. Could be useful alright as you are comparing the ratings of each race rather than the ratings of each horse in 1 race as with the racing post if you get my meaning. Handy, maybe you would care to post the top 2 rated horse every day and we can keep a record of profit/loss at SP??? We could also keep a record of the top rated horse to see if it improves matters and also a threshold system so that any day no ratings below say 75 no bet or something or only favs above evens.:)

retenzo

2.00 ludlow dances with wolves is forcasted at 7/1.....e/w punt maybe... does anyone know his theory behind his system or use his selections on a regular basis? Canada street is forcasted at 2/1

scargill

retenzo wrote:

does anyone know his theory behind his system

its called the 'savage' system. it's savage.

finnpark

finnpark wrote:

Horse Tracker informs me Connaught Hall is out today in 1st at Punch. This horse was entered in 12 races I think in the last 3 weeks and withdrawn from every single one, its very rare you see such a thing. This leads me to believe it is out to win today, first time over hurdles but obviously connections were waiting for right race and right conditions. Pretty sure Each Way bet if betting market indicates. At > 3/1 I reccommend EW on this. I would be very surprised if outside top 2 or 3. Goodluck.

Just seen the race this morning. Shocking ride, if Ruby was on this it would have won by 15 to 20 lengths. Should have won easily. Thats why you shouldnt back "inadequate" jockeys. Truly savage. Cant beleive I lost money here.

kc66

Jamie Spencer gave a nice few tips in yesterdays Star. Had a €10 treble returning over €300. I've never read his article before but will keep an eye on it in future.
Rob Roy, Obe Brave and Greenwich Meantime.

masterK

finnpark wrote:

Just having a look there. Good job alright. He could make his site a bit better looking but the quality of the ratings look impressive at first glance. Could be useful alright as you are comparing the ratings of each race rather than the ratings of each horse in 1 race as with the racing post if you get my meaning. Handy, maybe you would care to post the top 2 rated horse every day and we can keep a record of profit/loss at SP??? We could also keep a record of the top rated horse to see if it improves matters and also a threshold system so that any day no ratings below say 75 no bet or something or only favs above evens.:)

I've recorded some figures for the Racing Post ratings over a period of time for both flat and NH, the make interesting reading. I have them on my PC in work so I'll post them on Tuesday. I've filtered them according to type of race, race class, going etc.

finnpark

eirebhoy wrote:

Tomorrow's horses would be:
2.00 Ludlow - Dance with Wolves (45)
2.20 Wetherby - Canada Street (79)

Canada Street WINS at 6/4, nice start. Dance with Wolves was only 3rd on his list as Dock Tower is +95 so lets have a look at 3.30 at Wetherby next. Canada Street set a new course record. 45 seems quite low, I think you need a threshold there which will mean no bets some days naturally enough but great start again today. Interesting.

retenzo

Dances with wolves was a Non- runner...was on canada street:D .I might start backing two horses each day based on his rating system...or if anyone else would like to start a thread with this as i am up to my eyes with thesis etc.:eek:

eirebhoy

finnpark wrote:

Canada Street WINS at 6/4, nice start. Dance with Wolves was only 3rd on his list as Dock Tower is +95 so lets have a look at 3.30 at Wetherby next. Canada Street set a new course record. 45 seems quite low, I think you need a threshold there which will mean no bets some days naturally enough but great start again today. Interesting.

I purposely left out Dock Tower because it raced yesterday and finshed 10th, that wasn't taken into account on the system. I might start a thread tomorrow with this as I'm rarely let down when the gap between first and 2nd is over 100. What do you reckon the threshold should be?

finnpark

retenzo wrote:

Dances with wolves was a Non- runner...was on canada street:D .I might start backing two horses each day based on his rating system...or if anyone else would like to start a thread with this as i am up to my eyes with thesis etc.:eek:

Orpen Wide was one of his top rated today, won at 8/1 too. I wouldn't rush into anything, lets just see how it does over time. A lot of favs are winning lately anyway and I don't like backing favs so I think I will just monitor it.

finnpark

eirebhoy wrote:

What do you reckon the threshold should be?

I have no idea since Im new to his site but I think it should be half way between the lowest value required to make a profit and the highest value ver given which probably would be around 90. I think the most important thing is consistency, I would drawn towards just top rated horse that are 2/1 or better- say horses with a rating of over 90 and > 2/1 in price, something along those lines since I am a very patient gambler.:)

retenzo

okay just looked at the page for tomorrows racing and the pick seems to be Benchmark in the 2.10 kempton with a 113 rating difference to the next horse.....its forcast at 8/11 so im sure this will not interest you finnpark

Next best include:

2.00 Windsor - Spoof Master (51 difference)
3.45 Kempton - Beckett hall (61 difference)
4.20 Kempton - Namid reprobate (57 difference)

Let test the water with these!!

finnpark

retenzo wrote:

okay just looked at the page for tomorrows racing and the pick seems to be Benchmark in the 2.10 kempton with a 113 rating difference to the next horse.....its forcast at 8/11 so im sure this will not interest you finnpark

Next best include:

2.00 Windsor - Spoof Master (51 difference)
3.45 Kempton - Beckett hall (61 difference)
4.20 Kempton - Namid reprobate (57 difference)

Let test the water with these!!

Well I will note it anyway. It has 2 winners from 2 for the top rated for the last 2 days, if it makes it 3 from 3 I will be impressed regardless of price. Its very rare that daily tipsters can manage this so if a system manages it then its worth noting.:)

retenzo

Benchmark bet on the line 2nd
Beckett Hall unplaced
Spoof master 3rd (i think)
Namid Reprobate 1st

Might do it for the week and see how it fairs out...bad start for day 1 though

BangBeater

dinner date at 8/1 did it for me anyways!

finnpark

retenzo wrote:

Benchmark bet on the line 2nd
Beckett Hall unplaced
Spoof master 3rd (i think)
Namid Reprobate 1st

Might do it for the week and see how it fairs out...bad start for day 1 though

Wouldn't mind this at all retenzo. I told you, just back above 2/1. I bet it makes a profit if you only back top rated above 80 and above 2/1 odds. Lets wait and see. His rating system is similar to tipsters' performances, those who tip below 2/1 are always hovering at 0 or below 0 . The ideal price is between 2/1 and 3/1. I will keep an eye on this anyway to see if we can get a reliable system here but I would suspect that we will get a profitable system here by having a threshold in terms of ratings points and terms of odds. Lets see.:)

finnpark

finnpark wrote:

Wouldn't mind this at all retenzo. I told you, just back above 2/1. I bet it makes a profit if you only back top rated above 80 and above 2/1 odds. Lets wait and see. His rating system is similar to tipsters' performances, those who tip below 2/1 are always hovering at 0 or below 0 . The ideal price is between 2/1 and 3/1. I will keep an eye on this anyway to see if we can get a reliable system here but I would suspect that we will get a profitable system here by having a threshold in terms of ratings points and terms of odds. Lets see.:)

Lets make a threshold of 70 points and odds of 9/4 minimum to see how it goes.:)

Theres one tomorrow at 9/4 on 66 points but thats below this threshold.

retenzo

2.00 Bath Deadshot Keen 1/2 76 point difference
5.10 Favouring 2/1 66 point difference


Im going put up the 66 point one as it has a good price and the rest of there is not much of a difference in the between the other cards.....

Will post result later!!