Punchestown Friday

Spupotter

sjones - not taking your job, but was on and when it wasn't up said I would start the thread.

wb

You could hardly call this a tip, but I'm gonna be on BRAVE INCA in the 3:15. He is trading at 1.92 on betfair at the moment which I think is fair value for him. I could go list a million reasons why you should back him, but just look at his past performances and they speak for themselves. An absolute class act, who is fast becoming my favourite all time horse over Istabraq. He is a horse that really gives his all, and he has a jockey on board (McCoy) who always gives everything too. I simply cant see past this horse. If I was really pushed, I would say that Asian Maze @ 3.5 to be placed is not bad, but all my €€€ will be on Brave Inca.

Bluetonic

wbailey wrote:

If I was really pushed, I would say that Asian Maze @ 3.5 to be placed is not bad, but all my €€€ will be on Brave Inca.

You do realise that Asian Maze won't be running today? He only still in the declarations at the moment as the final declarations were at 10am yesterday before he had run his race yesterday, he'll be listed as a N/R soon.

chump

I'd be a wee bit worried about Macs Joy... not too sure what to do yet. Will wait and see the prices.
Although I know people say Brave Inca keeps pulling it out when he has to, and that he idles in front, but Macs Joy could still have a bit of improvement in him for his Chelt performance...

I've done well out of Brave Inca tbh, but maybe it's time to jump ship

Jak

Well to finish off a poor Punchestown, which seems to have been little more than me donating back to the bookies from Cheltenham, I've gone with the following..

Brave Inca to win the 3.15 champ hurdle. Mostly just gone on this one as with Asian Maze yesterday.

I also wanted to put a double down on this given the field, but having watched the finishes of the last few races with Asian Maze, Hardy Eustace and Macs Joy it's hard to say. Asian Maze on form would seem to be the obvious one, but I've had no joy with obvious this week so going Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace forecast.

Outside of this I've gone with an each way accumulator and doubles from five as follows for the interest today.

2.05 Good Step
2.40 Laragh House
3.15 Brave Inca
3.40 Oulart
4.25 Powerstation

Also through a double down at Sandown on Noble Request and Day Flight (RP tipped) in the 1.10 and 1.45 respectively as my luck at Puchestown has been so bad.

JAK.

Limerickboyo

Powerstation is 20/1. CByrnes has another horse mounthenry in same race and dn russell took the ride on the latter. Is this a sign?

nogihno

Nina is riding for Nicky Henderson in the bumper, lots of ticks in the right boxes. Forecast 7/1. Trainer has such a good bumper record, jockey is different class, worth an each way poke.

Tambourine Davis 5.35 - Punchestown

Winelover

I am doing this double myself today..

Brave Inca
Nicanor

chump

I think I'll just do singles.

It will be interesting to see how much, if at all, Nicanon and Refinement are better than Vic Venturi and Mounthenry. I presume they're pounds ahead.

timmy79

i see star performance in first at punch has gone from 50/1, 33/1 to 16/1. big drop in price. someone know something

masterK

I think Oulart, Brave Inca and Nicanor today look like a nice treble at a little better than 10/1, you could throw in Faasel over at Sandown for a nice yankee.

chump

Am I wrong in thinking that if you were to have backed Brave Inca at 1.92 for example on betair this morning, before Asian Maze was withdrawn, you'd be done in for a rule 4 adjustment?

Infact still not withdrawn... wait til it is for a real price?

Am not even sure if backing it tbh

masterK

chump wrote:

Am I wrong in thinking that if you were to have backed Brave Inca at 1.92 for example on betair this morning, before Asian Maze was withdrawn, you'd be done in for a rule 4 adjustment?

Infact still not withdrawn... wait til it is for a real price?

Am not even sure if backing it tbh

There will be a reduction whenever she is taken out. It's not a rule 4 as such, but similar. It will be an amount that reflects the percentage of money in the race that has been on her.

scojones

Spupotter wrote:

sjones - not taking your job, but was on and when it wasn't up said I would start the thread.

Hehe, it's not my job buddy. Anyone can create the threads

Jak wrote:

Outside of this I've gone with an each way accumulator and doubles from five as follows for the interest today.

2.05 Good Step
2.40 Laragh House
3.15 Brave Inca
3.40 Oulart
4.25 Powerstation

I did not think Good Step would be running today. Bolger was interviewed after Nina's win yesterday and said that he would be running Abrahm's Bridge again, but not Good Step. Good step had a big run yesterday, just over 4m. I'm going to stay away from the 2.05 today.

2.40 I was also looking at Laragh House, but it's furthest trip has been 22f, today's race is a full 10 furlongs further than that, and that's what's worrying me about it. Although, at the price it is it could be worth a very small e/w bet. Nina is on fire at the moment. EDIT: Laragh House is only 5/1 with PP, but it's 10/1 with William Hill. Actually, it's now gone into 6/1 with William Hill.

3.15 In the big one at Punchestown I'm going to give Macs Joy one more chance to steal it from Brave Inca. I think Brave Inca is a superb animal but Macs Joy can take advantage of it's style and come with a late surge to beat Brave Inca when it's idling in front.

3.50 Oulart's performance in the National was superb. It was the one time I didn't back this horse and with 3f left I was kicking myself. I won't be making that mistake again today.

There are a few significant things to notice in the 4.25. McCoy is a regular on Refinement. However Vic Venturi is racing in this race as well. McCoy gave Vic Venturi a good ride on Easter Sunday to win. Venturi's mount is Andrew McNamara. Having a look at Byrnes' entries, as has already been pointed out on this thread, Russell is not taking his mount on Powerstation but on Mounthenry. Andrew McNamara is usally Mounthenry's mount who was beaten by 1/2 a lenght on Easter Sunday by Vic Venturi. So there is alot of swapping going on. All you have to do is checkout my previous posts about my opinions of Powerstation, but the fact that Russell is on Mounthenry leads me to think that Byrnes is not confident with Powerstation - and rightly so. It was terrible last time out. Be under no illusions, that 4th place in it's form is nearly 18 lenghts from Black Jack Ketchum. Powerstation looked tired towards the end of that race, I thought it had a chance from 3f out but it went backwards. However I can't let it run without backing it. I'm going with a small e/w on Powerstation for sentimental reasons, and I'll be having a bet on Nicanor. It should be fresh enough after it's 44 day break and it should be able to take advantage of that.

5.00 The ground suits Pedrobob today. It has a great record of Good to Firm ground, and proved it can perform on Soft ground too. Ruby seems to be the regular jockey on Pedrobob these days, and as the racing post says, O'Muircheartaigh hasn't been living up to expectations, and Geraghty is on board, so I'm not willing to go with it today. It would not surprise me if Pedrobob goes off the favourite in this race. NB

fr wishy washy

Good Step n/r

Jak

Hmm yah i noticed that about Good Step.

Wonder if PP still run the accumulator for the other 4 then.

wb

Asian Maze has finally been withdrawn. Brave Inca is down to 1.7

chump

that first race...

How can two horses that came in 1st and 2nd come in first and second again only 3 days later.

Unbelievable.

(i wasn't on either!)

samo

timmy79 wrote:

i see star performance in first at punch has gone from 50/1, 33/1 to 16/1. big drop in price. someone know something

Was a good e/w if you got it at the higher prices then came in 3rd, I got it e/w 16/1

cheers!

chump

Decided on Macs Joy in the big one.
Quicker surface. Not as testing a race. Hopefully turn of pace can do it.

chump

chump wrote:

Decided on Macs Joy in the big one.
Quicker surface. Not as testing a race. Hopefully turn of pace can do it.

Whoop-di-doo
Had a few yips on the win
And had a few yips on a forecast on betfair... 1st Macs Joy, 2nd Brave Inca and got at a pretty nice 7.6 (think was highest price matched for that forecast)

chump

Well had Nicanor, so calling it a day.

Successful betting

Gud luck lads

DeadParrot

oh why oh why didnt I make my accum. each way??
2wins a 2nd and a 3rd

chump

An ew accum isn't worth doing.
If one horse comes in 2nd and all the others win, all the odds are individually divided by a 1/4 or a 1/5th anyway.
Better off doing a PLACE accum and win accum seperately if ya can ...
TBH in my opinion it's never worthwhile doing an EW accum or combination bet of any sort.

fr wishy washy

Very poor ride on fav Female in the Bumper,Jockey took it way too easy and caught on the line.I had it laid so I was delighted but I'd say fav backers are pretty pi**ed off.

scojones

Not too bad a day today. Three winners at 3/1, 2/1 and 9/10. Macs Joy was brilliant

scargill

fr wishy washy wrote:

Very poor ride on fav Female in the Bumper,Jockey took it way too easy and caught on the line.I had it laid so I was delighted but I'd say fav backers are pretty pi**ed off.

after another bad day I had a good few quid on Female to get me back even for the day. reckon the jockey was having a little look at himself on the big screen when he was so far ahead. the little fooker admiring himself 'winning'.

was gonna back License in the last but was pissed off so left the bookies. Just sums up my bad Punchestown week !!