JJ Button Vs Blind

fuzzbox

5/10 6-max Party NLHE action
Villain has raised his button fairly regularly. I havent been playing back too much, but have once or twice, and he has generally folded.

He is "ActualGod" from 2+2 for anybody who knows him. He is pretty TAG I guess, and he prolly views me the same way.

Deepish stacks
I have 2.5k, he has 2k

Preflop
Folded to button, who opens to 40, folded to me with JJ in the BB, I make it 120 to play, and he calls.

Flop (245)
8d 7h 2d
I lead for 200, he smooth calls

Turn (645)
3h
I check, he bets 450 .... your move (and plan for the remainder of the hand)?

And comments on the play thus far also appreciated.

ollyk1

I call and check the river.

fuzzbox

ollyk1 wrote:

I call and check the river.

Are you folding the river if he bets?

breadmonkey

77/88 would be consistent with this play, no?

Rnger

He's probably aware of the fact that he folded to your raises. He could have seen your pf raise as a play to take the pot off him and the contuation bet on the flop indicates the same thing. You check the turn indicating weakness and now he has a go at the pot on the turn.

Were you intending on check-raising here? He folds everything you beat with a check-raise. (but your safe from a Q/K/A river if he folds which i think he will and you gain his 450 bet). I would have bet out on the turn 1/2 - 3/4 of the pot most of the time because I really dont want to see a check behind and a scare card come down.

I'd call 80% of the time, raising the rest of the time and make a small bet on the river if nothing scary comes down. Check/calling the river is fine too, I think he could have as little as K-high here.

Tell me how awesomely wrong I am

RoundTower

I think this is a fold. I expect this is mostly a set/overpair/air and rarely a draw. He needs to be on air/a draw a lot for you to want to play with him here, and even then you can't make much more off him if ahead.

I think your line up to now is fine, sometimes I bet the turn. Call and check/fold any river is my second choice, this is horribly exploitable but if he is straightforward and unimaginative maybe it is best.

Lafortezza

I'd include something like 9hTh in his range, on the turn he picks up a flush draw with his OESD, and you check it to him, he may as well bet.
I'd also prefer betting the turn and folding to a raise, or would that be too transparent as Hero having an overpair?

ntlbell

I can't see anything you're beating here bar 99/1010/ak/diamond draw/bluff

Looks like a set/QQ+

Fold for me.

Hectorjelly

ntlbell wrote:

I can't see anything you're beating here bar 99/1010/ak/diamond draw/bluff

Fold for me.

Thats quite a few hands!

Something to think about is that ff you chk raise all in here you might get QQ to fold. So if you think that he is unlikely to slowplay AAKK a chk raise here is good as youll very rarely be called.

ntlbell

Hectorjelly wrote:

Thats quite a few hands!

Something to think about is that ff you chk raise all in here you might get QQ to fold. So if you think that he is unlikely to slowplay AAKK a chk raise here is good as youll very rarely be called.

Well I think a draw is unlikley, it'd be a very strangley played AK

so it only really leaves 99/1010/air and I wouldn't like to loose 1k+ to find out

But I'm well out of my depth at 5/10

cardshark202

I think folding is your best option here. Check raising all in may work but his line would definately include a set, I don't think he'll fold enough hands that you beat to make it profitable so I let it go here.

ollyk1

fuzzbox wrote:

Are you folding the river if he bets?

I was going to edit the post on that very issue Fuzz. Methinks I fold to a three quarter pot bet but I call a push as long as the river isn't a diamond or an Ace or Queen.I'd say he checks this down >50% of the time.

Hectorjelly

ollyk1 wrote:

I was going to edit the post on that very issue Fuzz. Methinks I fold to a three quarter pot bet but I call a push as long as the river isn't a diamond or an Ace or Queen.I'd say he checks this down >50% of the time.

If hes any good he is pushing/betting big a blank river with AA or a set

fuzzbox

Results:
Well I called the 450. I think he can have 99/TT here sometimes. In hindsight, I think this is a bad call.

The river came Ace ... and I considered bluffing at it . i didnt, however, and we checked it down and his QQ was good.