The Chairman in the Indo

BendiBus · 20-04-2006 1:57pm #1

Indo wrote:

As oil prices soar on dwindling supply fears, it will require a modal shift away from cars. Long live the bus

THIS week, crude oil prices hit new record highs of $72. So far, the Irish economy has weathered the recent rise in gas, electricity, fuel oil, diesel and petrol prices, without too much strain.

But as prices rise more sharply to reflect the oncoming supply shortage, how well will Ireland cope?

And what steps are required to implement one of the major coping strategies for Ireland - a modal shift - a move from car-based transport to public transport?

Experts expect world oil production to peak within five years.

Ireland's consumption of oil per capita is the third highest in the EU. Whereas average EU oil consumption has remained constant in the EU as a whole, Ireland's consumption per capita has increased by over 50pc between 1990 and 2002.

In policy terms, the timescale within which Ireland must adjust to much dearer, scarcer oil ranges from short to brutally short.

The evidence for climate change as a result of increased usage of fossil fuels is now compelling.

With regard to coping strategies for Ireland, Sustainable Energy Ireland identifies three broad applications for energy in Ireland - thermal, power and mobility.

By 2004, energy usage was almost equally shared between the three applications. In the event of a sharp drop in oil supply and a large price rise, it should prove relatively easy to find oil substitutes for space and process heating.

The most exciting of these are wood pellet furnaces and stoves (now grant-aided).

It should prove moderately difficult to wean power generation away from its current oil (and subsequently gas) dependency.

Within a decade it should prove possible to treble coal's share of generation, to emulate Denmark's experience in renewables, to install an electricity interconnector to the UK, and perhaps to increase distributed power generation for lighting via roof-mounted wind turbines.

In this context, it may be more feasible for Ireland to acquire a large coalmine abroad, rather than purchase a producing oilfield.

It will prove very difficult to provide substitutes for oil in the transport sector. In air travel, there is no current substitute for aviation fuel, nor is any likely.

The transport sector's much greater need for a continuing oil supply must be recognised, if Irish society and the Irish economy is to continue to function.

Public transport consumes three to five times less energy per passenger carried than cars. Public transport is 10 times cleaner than private cars in terms of emissions and five to ten times safer.

Per passenger carried, buses cause 11 times less noise than cars. Public transport is more egalitarian than car transport.

The public passenger travel should be strengthened rather than weakened. The coming oil deficit will reinforce the strategic importance of national control of public transport by air, rail and road, although this does not necessarily entail full public ownership.

There should be appropriate charges for emissions, congestion/road usage tolling etc, as the OECD recommends. Such charges would be more readily accepted by the travelling public if the traffic authorities also contracted to deliver a guaranteed travelling time via public and private transport.

A sustainable public transport system must incorporate strong competitiveness and innovation pressures. The network management model, successfully operated by Bus Eireann in school transport, combines common-good principles with competitive tendering, and should be extended to city and rural bus services.

Bus Eireann and Dublin Bus have also undertaken pilot studies involving a 50/50 mix of native- grown biofuels and diesel oil.

Such initiatives need fiscal support, if they are to endure.

Policy needs to actively support public transport. The fixed-line transport provisions contained in Transport 21 make a good start.

Before they come on stream, they need to be supplemented with additional buses and active traffic management measures to ensure that bus timetables can actually be met.

Dr John Lynch is chairman of CIE

Mostly eco-related matters.

I've highlighted in bold what I've always felt waspu the best way forward - a single authority running the service but the on-the-ground provision asigned by competitive tender.

And I thought the bio-fuel pilot studies are on a 5/95 bio/diesel ratio not 50/50