Do you fold this or play

sunzz

Your deep into a tournie average stack is about 80k you have 130k, 12 runners left.

Blinds 3/6k

Your on the button and look down at QQ, UTG raises to 30k he has about 50behind now.

Cutoff L/A reraises all in he has me covered by about 10k.

The big blind has only 9k so will 100% be moving, so no matter what you are getting to a 3 way showdown if you call perhaps even a 4 way if utg calls.

just wondering.

califano

Fold. Theres at least an Ace and a King amongst your raiser and callers. Best case scenario you have to dodge 5 cards without an ace or a king hitting. It doesnt happen much does it?.

This is where calling because "you're playing to win" is folly. Extra reason to fold is theres a chance of two dudes going out here if you fold.

eoghan104

Id have to agree with rounders here. The chances off you being up against AA or KK are small but you are almost definatley up against AK and in a race for all your money. You are in a dominent position with that stack so i think laying this down is the right play.

In the late stages of a tournament recently i layed down QQ to a raise and reraise because i put one guy on AK and he had me covered. I didnt want to risk a nights hard work to go out on a 50/50 so close to the bubble. The guy did have AK and was against 1010........ the AK got no help and i wouldve won the pot but i was still happy with my decision.

Samba

Im guessing you folded and they all had muck

To that action ahead of you, you have to fold, raise and re-raise from two stacks who have you fairly much covered is an insta dump.

There is no play to win logic in this hand, 9/10 you are behind to this sort of action and you are getting your money in the pot probably as a 5/1 dog.

The only reasoning on which I could base a call is if you had them pegged for AK/AQ/AJ, in which case they have their outs and thus increasing your odds of winning

Iceman78

I agree that a fold here probably is the best option at this stage of a tourney.

There are a couple of things that i would have to think about though. 1) How aggressive is the reraiser, would he make this move with any pair or any ace?

2) What is the payout structure in the tourney? If it was fairly flat for next 7 or 8 places, i would be very tempted to call here as if you win this hand, you will be chip leader and should make top 3 or 4 without too much trouble.

Bandana boy

i dont like UTG raise to 30k has he been very aggressive up to this point ?

i think you have to ask what are the chances of AA KK and if you think there not there then you call
how likely is it that bigger stack has JJ TT and is trying to isolate a rag ace
I think call and take the chance to take down 320K pot from 120K at 50-55% fav
That should put you in the good money as well

Bandana boy

The guy did have AK and was against 1010........ the AK got no help and i wouldve won the pot but i was still happy with my decision.[/QUOTE]

not sure again why you would be happy laying down 2-1 on a 50-50

Hectorjelly

rounders123 wrote:

Best case scenario you have to dodge 5 cards without an ace or a king hitting. It doesnt happen much does it?.

QQ beats KK a lot if thats what you mean!

fuzzbox

Bandana boy wrote:

The guy did have AK and was against 1010........ the AK got no help and i wouldve won the pot but i was still happy with my decision.

not sure again why you would be happy laying down 2-1 on a 50-50[/QUOTE]

Not quite 50/50 ... but I call with QQ.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 36.8764 % 36.76% 00.12% { AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 44.8452 % 44.73% 00.12% { QQ }
Hand 3: 18.2783 % 18.16% 00.12% { TT }

eoghan104

not sure again why you would be happy laying down 2-1 on a 50-50[/QUOTE]

well at that stage of the tournament i didnt want to risk my whole stack on a race. plus there was still the chance he had KK or AA.

If u were playin the world series and on the first hand a guy goes all in and you hold QQ do u call?......... Surley not.

Now imagine you accidently see the guy is holding AK......... now do you call?

fuzzbox

btw - I fold here - only because

1. UTG raised
2. Dude moved in over an UTG raise.

So I pass QQ.

fuzzbox

eoghan104 wrote:

not sure again why you would be happy laying down 2-1 on a 50-50

well at that stage of the tournament i didnt want to risk my whole stack on a race. plus there was still the chance he had KK or AA.

If u were playin the world series and on the first hand a guy goes all in and you hold QQ do u call?......... Surley not.

Now imagine you accidently see the guy is holding AK......... now do you call?[/QUOTE]

Yes I call if I see AK in his hand.

But this is an entirely different situation.

Hitman Actual

Why is this such an auto-fold? If the table is 6-handed and loose/aggressive, then surely there are a lot of hands moving here that QQ would be happy to be up against. I know AA and KK have you in big trouble, but after that the main worry is AK, and you're ahead of that.

I'm not saying that it's an easy call, but you have QQ at a 6-handed table. I just dont think it's an automatic fold.

ianmc38

eoghan104 wrote:

If u were playin the world series and on the first hand a guy goes all in and you hold QQ do u call?......... Surley not.

Now imagine you accidently see the guy is holding AK......... now do you call?

Oh god. Please stop flogging that old horse. It's been exhumed about 10000 times already this year.

eoghan104

What do you mean ian? i dunno what your talking about?? whats the old horse........ this example? i havent seen it come up before i apologise.

Gholimoli

eoghan104 wrote:

not sure again why you would be happy laying down 2-1 on a 50-50

well at that stage of the tournament i didnt want to risk my whole stack on a race. plus there was still the chance he had KK or AA.

If u were playin the world series and on the first hand a guy goes all in and you hold QQ do u call?......... Surley not.

Now imagine you accidently see the guy is holding AK......... now do you call?[/QUOTE]
this is not the same situation at all as to what you described of the WSOP.
you cant compare them.
here a fold is correct becase UTG's raise got reraised and hero can afford to wait for a better spot given his stack.even though you hero may be be ahead at this time ,its very close and hero does not need to make close decisions for all his chips at this stage.

Ollieboy

Gholimoli wrote:

well at that stage of the tournament i didnt want to risk my whole stack on a race. plus there was still the chance he had KK or AA.

If u were playin the world series and on the first hand a guy goes all in and you hold QQ do u call?......... Surley not.

Now imagine you accidently see the guy is holding AK......... now do you call?

this is not the same situation at all as to what you described of the WSOP.
you cant compare them.
here a fold is correct becase UTG's raise got reraised and hero can afford to wait for a better spot given his stack.even though you hero may be be ahead at this time ,its very close and hero does not need to make close decisions for all his chips at this stage.[/QUOTE]

I have to agree with Gholi here, the UTG raise is either a steal attempt or a medium pair where he doesn't want action, he's invest a lot of his stack in this hand, so will be commit to the hand now, the player pushing after, is likely to be holding AA/KK/AK, its the only hand that will allow this move. Of course, hand history and style of play would be helpful.

The player after is not that important as his stack is so small. But a fold is the best option and wait for a better chance.

padraig_f

I'd push it in pretty quickly. I think 6-handed, the reraisers range is much bigger than AA/KK. I can see him making this move with 99 or something, to isolate himself against the original raiser. If original raiser has AT and reraiser has AK, that's still a big overlay.

jtsuited

what's the payout structure. i think this is a major part of this scenario

handsfree

IMO this is an auto push if i have ever seen one. the only man you have to worry about is the CO. you could lose to everyone else and still be on average chips. the likely hood that the two lads have aces are high but the cut offs reraise suggests that he wants to isolate UTG so it equally quite possible that his range is 99 - JJ while the UTG reaks of a low PP.

if your up against Two lads with Ax then their aces are snookered and if they have under pp's your laughing

a-k-47

I have to agree with Gholi here, the UTG raise is either a steal attempt or a medium pair where he doesn't want action, he's invest a lot of his stack in this hand, so will be commit to the hand now, the player pushing after, is likely to be holding AA/KK/AK, its the only hand that will allow this move. Of course, hand history and style of play would be helpful.

The player after is not that important as his stack is so small. But a fold is the best option and wait for a better chance.

agreed. at this stage of the tourny with possibly a 3/4 way id also bin it. What was the re raiser hand?. utg range 66- 10,10 MP. JJ (ul if he did) aa,kk,ak...

handsfree

the result??

sunzz

Sorry folks new job been a little mad couldn't get back to this.

Basically this was a call for my stack, I felt I could find a better position than JJ to take player on my right and didn't want to lose 3 hours of playing on a 50/50 or 8/1 underdog to an overpair.

I DECIDED to lay it down as I was hoping the player on my right would take down the 2 and there was 2 other low stacks 20k and 33k on the other table and I thought I'd cruise into the top 8.

Prize was

1st 3.5k
2nd 2.6k
3rd 1.6k
4th 1.4k
5th 1k


about 120 runners or so I think.

I folded and UTG thought for a while and called.

utg threw over 99
CO threw over AK
and big blind 45

Ace on the river knocked both out. So was happy with my laydown

Was down the the last 6 when my ace ace was cracked by A7, runner runner 7 out in 6th for $789

califano

QQ you mean?

Get back to work!.

RoundTower

I think you should call, the stacks are not deep and if you are describing CO as loose/aggressive then a lot of the time he has a hand you beat. It definitely isn't KK/AA/AK every time here.

Of course if it's the bubble or what not you should fold because you don't want to get involved for all your chips when you might not have the nuts on the river, but from a poker point of view I'd say it's marginally a call.

sunzz

lol QQ **** me didn't think I was working that hard.