backing or laying?

baz909

have to ask guys, would it be easier to make a profit laying a horse than backing him to win? im swaying towards laying recently.

let me know what you think

Baggio

Baz,
dont have a betfair account myself..but if i did,,id be laying for sure..sooo many mug punters out there,...i mean i wish i had betfair etc at cheltenham,..2 lays of the season for me were Iris Gift and Baracouda..I mean soo many people kept backing those 2 when it was clear they really had no chance at all....
So yeahh lay all the way...over jumps anyway...as its easier to track form - ability and even yer own instincts tend to hold up,,,if you know your horses at all. Lived in uk for long time...many of the backers in betting shops,,are gamblers..NOT horsey folks,.,.ie- they dont know horses all that well..is a hobbie rather than a bred into them kinda thing like it is over here for so many down generations etc...i mean if Tony Mccoy had said before cheltenham "i think Iris Gift WILL win the Gold Cup",,all the mug saturday afternoon gamblers in UK would have plunged onto him,,,can tell ya that for sure.

anyway..there ya go..lay away there bud .....ciao'......Baggio.....

chump

Baracouda went off at 9/2 in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at Chelt and came 5th.
If you were to lay him on Betfair you'd be looking at laying at least at 9/2, possibly higher.
Iris´s Gift was pulled up in the Gold Cup and went off at 16/1, would have been much higher on Betfair.
Now yes you could have laid for a place in both cases at substantially lower odds. But the risk is great.

Now imagine just laying for win.
Assume you have a bank of 1000.
500 lay on each.
Returns profit, 110 on Baracouda & 31 on Iris's Gift.
Now if you feel comfortable putting 1000euro on the line, to win 140 then lay away...

fr wishy washy

chump wrote:

Baracouda went off at 9/2 in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at Chelt and came 5th.
If you were to lay him on Betfair you'd be looking at laying at least at 9/2, possibly higher.
Iris´s Gift was pulled up in the Gold Cup and went off at 16/1, would have been much higher on Betfair.
Now yes you could have laid for a place in both cases at substantially lower odds. But the risk is great.

Now imagine just laying for win.
Assume you have a bank of 1000.
500 lay on each.
Returns profit, 110 on Baracouda & 31 on Iris's Gift.
Now if you feel comfortable putting 1000euro on the line, to win 140 then lay away...

Agree with all the above,you have to be very careful when laying (even more-so than backing) as your losses are multiples of your stake (unless odds on).
Having said that I've found it more profitable laying lately.

masterK

Baggio wrote:

Baz,
dont have a betfair account myself..but if i did,,id be laying for sure..sooo many mug punters out there,...i mean i wish i had betfair etc at cheltenham,..2 lays of the season for me were Iris Gift and Baracouda..I mean soo many people kept backing those 2 when it was clear they really had no chance at all....
So yeahh lay all the way...over jumps anyway...as its easier to track form - ability and even yer own instincts tend to hold up,,,if you know your horses at all. Lived in uk for long time...many of the backers in betting shops,,are gamblers..NOT horsey folks,.,.ie- they dont know horses all that well..is a hobbie rather than a bred into them kinda thing like it is over here for so many down generations etc...i mean if Tony Mccoy had said before cheltenham "i think Iris Gift WILL win the Gold Cup",,all the mug saturday afternoon gamblers in UK would have plunged onto him,,,can tell ya that for sure.

anyway..there ya go..lay away there bud .....ciao'......Baggio.....

Why don't you open a Betfair account and start laying if it's that easy. You'll be rich in no time.

I would definitely thread carefully when laying, I don't do it all that often but when I do I usually stick to shorter price horses, shocks happen all the time in racing, laying a 33/1 no hoper that suddenly pops up to win could destroy your betting bank in one go.

Everybody who has never actually layed horses will tell you it's easy, how could it not be, all you have to do is pick a loser? You need to have a fairly good idea of the value in the price that you lay and if it reflects a horses real chance of winning. i.e. there's no point laying a horse that you reckon only has a 1 in 5 chance of winning at 20/1.

wb

I lay more horses than I back, but I reckon both are equally as difficult to profit from, and laying is a quicker way to the poor house if things go t*ts up.

Sure, it sounds easy to pick a loser, but lets say you lay a horse at 11 (10/1) and it wins, you will need to have 10 more losers in a row to break even.... one or two more winners at that price, and you are looking at finding 20 or 30 losers to get your money back. Lets face it, there are no certainties on either side.

If I were you, I would try to specialise in a market you are familiar with. If you are big into football, try a few lays there. I know it is not the most exciting type of race, but most of my lays are on all weather, as it is an area that I most familiar with. I know the jockey stats & trainer stats, which horses like it etc. Specialising is the key in my opinion.

Having said all of that, because it is the same as backing odds on in a sense, it would take a lot of time and patience to turn over even a small profit

fr wishy washy

Example:
Yesterday at Fairyhouse I laid Beef Or Salmon,Ooadachee,Dun Doire,
Major Vernon and Goodonyoupolly and then gave it all back (almost) with the fav in the last,so the lesson is be VERY careful.........

see here http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054916218

Baggio

Easy there lads,,,,,:D
,obviously yu need to tread carefully if your gonna lay a lot of the time ,,,all i am saying is that especially in the NH game where yu know the horses form and possibly character over several yeras,,,there have been some seriouly obvious lays,,and yes maybe i should go betfair myself,,,just don have the readies NOW to do it...but if i was well flush yeah is a good way to go........like i said ive just seen over the last few seasons pretty obvious lays that for one reason or another had serious momentum behind them because of jocey or trainer or because people went for a horse simply because *he's done it before" and there was no obvious looking alternative.

in many ways laying can be easier than backing when things are like that.:p ...

ciao' amigos...Baggio....

decies

since my girfriend-partner just broke up with me after five years,i wont be doing much laying for a good while

joebhoy1916

:eek:

scojones

decies wrote:

since my girfriend-partner just broke up with me after five years,i wont be doing much laying for a good while

Join the club buddy. It gets better after a while. Chin up!

decies

sjones wrote:

Join the club buddy. It gets better after a while. Chin up!

Yep thanks rang the samartains yesterday and they were engaged
Anyway off to punchestown next tuesday so you can post some winning tips up next week for me.:D