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River value bet - how much

  • 12-04-2006 3:22am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭


    36nl - villain is bad, not terrible. 4 handed I raise on the button with A9s. He calls. The flop is 89Jr. He bets 24 I call. Turn is a 4, he bets 48 I call. River J - he checks.. I am 95% sure im ahead. If he has me beat he has QT, but I really doubt it.

    Check/Bet - how much, I made a mistake here.


Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,679 ✭✭✭Daithio


    What is he going to call you with that you are beating? I check for sure.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    Daithio wrote:
    What is he going to call you with that you are beating? I check for sure.

    I think you underestimate how much bluffing goes on in these scenarios, firstly I have raised preflop and then just called the flop bet, its very common for me (a player in my position rather than me) to have no pair. Secondly both TK and AK probably play it the same and now arrive on the river with nothing - it sure would suck to check behind and let 22 win the pot wouldnt it!

    He could have 78, k9s, 66 and so on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,434 ✭✭✭cardshark202


    Well if you think he has a wide enough range to call you with a worse hand then make it about 70, seems like a nice number and probably about the right amount. It might look like a weak steal attempt as much as a value bet.

    EDIT: Given his line he seems to most likely have a counterfeited 2 pair or 9x so I'd say anything between a 1/3 pot and 1/2 pot sounds good.

    RE-EDIT: Just thinking, what about him holding TT here? If there was a high chance of a holding like that I might be inclined to check.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 910 ✭✭✭AmarilloFats


    You don't say how much you bet preflop..
    But if there's about ~$140 in pot i like a $50-$70 bet..

    I don't think a $140 bet will be called half as often as a $70 bet, considering the range of hands u put him on.

    And not betting here is average..value betting here is good...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,254 ✭✭✭fuzzbox


    Betting 140 is superior to betting 70 here.
    You are pretending to bluff, so potting it is good.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,679 ✭✭✭Daithio


    I think you underestimate how much bluffing goes on in these scenarios, firstly I have raised preflop and then just called the flop bet, its very common for me (a player in my position rather than me) to have no pair. Secondly both TK and AK probably play it the same and now arrive on the river with nothing - it sure would suck to check behind and let 22 win the pot wouldnt it!

    He could have 78, k9s, 66 and so on

    You have a pair of 9s though, so 22 wouldn't win. Unless I have read the hand incorrectly I really don't understand why you would bet this.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,679 ✭✭✭Daithio


    You don't say how much you bet preflop..
    But if there's about ~$140 in pot i like a $50-$70 bet..

    I don't think a $140 bet will be called half as often as a $70 bet, considering the range of hands u put him on.

    And not betting here is average..value betting here is good...

    Not if he has you beaten. In that case it's pretty poor actually. I agree that you're more than likely ahead, but the range of hands that he may call you with just aren't big enough t justify risking a bet IMO.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,537 ✭✭✭Ste05


    I think I check here too, I can't see what he's calling with that you beat either. Although that's just me, Realistically what hands does he put you on, I doubt HJ is a calling station with AK very often and so I doubt he'll put you on that. IMO the only hands that will call here are a straight, house or a J, everything else will fold. Although I've seen some mad calls in the past. Maybe this guy will call with A10. :rolleyes:

    I especially don't like betting for value with middle pair on a paired and connected board such as this.

    Although if you're 95% sure you're ahead then bet whatever you think will be called.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,754 ✭✭✭ianmc38


    I prefer checking behind here as well.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,434 ✭✭✭cardshark202


    fuzzbox wrote:
    Betting 140 is superior to betting 70 here.
    You are pretending to bluff, so potting it is good.

    Hmm yes I thought about that but obviously you need to get called at least half as much as a half pot bet in this spot and I don't think thats probable. The amount I bet depends on how much I believe I can get out of my opponent and against an average one I think half pot is about right.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 910 ✭✭✭AmarilloFats


    Daithio wrote:
    .....I really don't understand why you would bet this.

    Hi Daithio,
    My post was based on HJ being "95%" sure he was ahead....
    If HJ is playing LAG his range of hands is quite wide in this spot from Button. Hence even an Average Villain will widen(correctly) the range of hands he will call with in this situation.
    In a vacuum villain can look silly calling with 77, but it should not be considered in a vacuum


    Ste05, sorta same discussion we had yesterday.. If one is playing normal ABC poker against a Normal ABC opponent then I like a check in this spot..

    I really like a bet here..I don't even think it's that thin considering the board + if HJ's image is LAG then this would also add weight to the bet river argument. Was your image LAG HJ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭careca


    He prob does put you on AK, AQ and realistically the only hand he will call a bet with that you beat is small pp (55-77). If you are 95% certain you are ahead and want to extract as much as possible I would bet just less than half pot giving him the chance to come over the top. of course I don't know how much either of you have left.

    so about $60.

    unlike yesterdays hand (involving fats) i dont think there are enough good hands he could call you with that you beat so I would also check behind in this spot but then again that wasnt the question. :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,696 ✭✭✭Hectorjelly


    Dathio - when I said it sucks to let 22 win I meant that should I hold AK/TK here I would be very inclined to bet, so a bet here is perfectly natural with no pair. This means that im likely to get called by any pair.

    Amirillo - I made it 30 preflop which is standard for me, so theres 210 in the pot by the river

    Ste - You must be kidding! Any of those hands go mental on the river, they certainly dont check call. I really doubt he led the flop with a jack or straight.

    Careca - I dont want him going over the top of me! Im not trying to induce a bluff.

    Fuzzbox - I agree with you, at least I did at the time. I bet 200 because it looks like a bluff, I would never bet 90 there with nothing as its too easy for someone to look me up; the guy thought for ages called me a bully and then folded. I think against someone like this a smaller bet is better as the average bad player (unless he is a complete calling station) just does not have the balls to make a big call here for most of their stack. Im pretty sure he would of called 80/90. I doubt he has the mental capacity to realise that a bet of 90 is never going to be a bluff.

    As someone mentioned TT is about the only hand that can call me that beats me, but I reckon this is unlikely given preflop.

    I think betting here is far superiour to checking, I didnt really even consider checking to be honest. I almost certainly ahead, and whilst its probable I dont get called there are other advantages as well (even though I think on a strictly this hand EV basis you should bet).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,537 ✭✭✭Ste05


    Ste - You must be kidding! Any of those hands go mental on the river, they certainly dont check call. I really doubt he led the flop with a jack or straight.
    Yes they do go mental on the river, but I'm just suprised that so few people are getting check raised on the river. This guy has bet the whole way, does no one ever feign weakness on the river against a known aggressive player when all draws have missed, to try and induce another bet, if you think they might not call another bullet.

    I think it's just different approaches, but if I was the villain in this hand and I would have played this hand the same way with a flopped straight, trips or a decent J.
    Then maybe checked the river, putting you on something half decent, but thinking I might get more value out of the hand by check raising, it's riskier (as in the pay off) but can pay off lovely. e.g. would you have called a 200 bet on the river here??
    It also might get me a free showdown later when I want it.

    But obviously this Villain hadn't done anything like this before, and as with most hands alot of the information to help make the decision has happened in the last 40 or 50 hands of play.

    P.S. I presume this guy was in the blinds??

    Hmmm I also didn't realise it was only 4 handed :o. Apologies. The above post would more relate to a fuller game than 4 handed really. But I've written it now and so I might as well see where the flaws are... ;)

    In a four handed game and if I was pretty sure I was ahead I would have also overbet to make it look like a missed draw/trying to buy the pot, but I agree that you'd need someone who can make these big calls with weak hands.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,083 ✭✭✭RoundTower


    I would check behind. Either I am missing loads of value bets or the game you are playing in is mental.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,267 ✭✭✭opr


    What was the result of this hand ?

    OPR


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,806 ✭✭✭Lafortezza


    Results
    the guy thought for ages called me a bully and then folded.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,267 ✭✭✭opr


    Its not just my starting hands i have trouble with(Scalps thread) ... i can't read at all now :(

    Thanks


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