Measuring Demand

bardcom

In another thread somewhere on this board,

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054912800
IOFFL are Over Reacting

a great discussion was started by rmc. The nub of his entire argument is that there is no demand for BB.

Which leads me to my question. How can we measure BB demand, in an independent way, that would be acceptable and seen as unbiased.

If this information could be produced, seems to me that eircom and Comreg would find themselves with very little left to their arguments.

Now I'm not interested in all of you who are about to tell me that this can't be done, or that it doesn't matter what info is produced, it'll never stand up to scrutiny. Right now, there's no measurement, and therefore any measurement is better than none! (or has this already been done?)

I'm thinking maybe surveys from the Small Firms Association, or the Irish Software Association?

Any other ideas?

lucernarian

Well demand is based on the price of a good, according to the Law of Demand. The good must be a normal good (demand for it falls as price increases).

It can be assumed that the only people who want broadband will own a computer. I believe the upcoming Census will provide us with crucial information on the subject. Then you have to see what demand there is for internet use.
You can assume that demand for internet use is the same as demand for broadband because broadband is better than dialup on many levels and people would virtually always choose broadband over dialup if the price for both was the same.

At the end of the day, broadband demand is entirely based on demand for internet usage so I guess you would start gathering statistics from that point onwards.

rmc

Hi Bardcom,
now you are starting to develop something that ALL BB suppliers would be very interested in! Imagine all suppliers having a complete list of those customers that would like BB now or may like it in the near future. Perhaps as suggested by To_be_confirmed, the only way to get such a survey would be via the upcoming census? Is there a question in it about BB? Then the Dept of Comms would have the facts at their hands...

Otherwise, perhaps some competition/survey with the draw taken on Late Late Show - Do you have BB (Y/N)? Do you want BB in the near future? With a prize taken at randon from the entries? It could be run in conjunction with RTE-Radio 2/national press/etc... Each entry must contain name and fixed line telephone number. T&Cs would enable those who are looking for BB in the future to be supplied to all BB operators & IOFFL? IOFFL could complete a demand mapping throughout the country...

Just an idea, to help assess it there is that demand !!!:D

Sponge Bob

The demand equation can be calculated by reference to Dublin and Galway .
Only those cities have the full gamut of choice as in

1. DSL (LLU and Bitstream)
2. Cable
3. Carrier Grade Wireless

The forthcoming census has a few questions (page 2 of pdf)

1. PC penetration
2. Use of internet
3. Access method

The wording is a tad inadequate as it does not include work supplied laptops for example of which there are many.

The census will reveal that BB takeup is highest in Dublin and Galway, not because PC penetration is equally higher or because of income but simply because the choice is there.

There will be a noticable gap between them and Cork Drogheda Dundalk Limerick, not because of PC penetration but because of a lack of access method ...particularly cable BB ... in those towns .

BB penetration will show around 15-17% of households in those higher cities, 10% in the others.

PC penetration will show at about 56% of households nationally.

No question was asked about the ethernet enabled PS2 which is not a PC .

bk

To see BB demand you just need to look at Northern Ireland. As of February 2005 it was estimated that 23% of homes had BB. I'm sure this figure has increased substantially since then.

There is no difference between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (in terms of education, earnings, language, living dispersal, etc.) except price and availability (100% in NI).

Sponge Bob comment of PS2 is interesting. With the release of Xbox 360 and PS3 and Revolution this year, all of which are BB enabled, I expect the demand for BB to sky rocket in Ireland over the next year and we will see many homes with BB but no PC's.

(Ireland as the second highest ownership rate of PS2 in the world, second only to Japan, Irish people like to play games).

BTW Sponge, Cork does have some cable BB, a friend from Cork has BB from Chorus at 3m. At my parents home in Cork, we can get Chorus BB, Bitstream, Smart LLU BB, Digiweb Metro and probably IBB (I haven't checked). So things aren't that bad in Cork City at least.

paulm17781

Slightly O/T but the X-box (not 360) also has ethernet and X-Box live. Another reason to want BB.

lucernarian

Drogheda and Dundalk have the worst choice out of those you mentioned as Drogheda doesn't have Metro wireless and Dundalk doesn't have BT LLU (I think).

Do Chorus only supply MMDS in Limerick?

Doesn't Waterford have full choice too, SB?

Sponge Bob

Waterford is not as well covered by the LLU operators , eg as in no Magnet for them but lets lump it in with Galway and Dublin .

Limerick Drogheda and Dundalk are 3rd 5th and 6th largest citiies in Ireland but with NO cable BB and fewer LLU operators in their local eircom exchanges to boot .

Cork now has some cable BB but is very difficult terrain for wireless so I lumped it in with Limerick/Dundalk/Drogheda , sorry lads get a bulldozer .

I am betting all my many holes on this next bit showing loud and clear in the census

Galway and Dublin ......will show a higher BB penetration than the other cities and thats because price and demand are inextricably linked and those cities have the best gamut of choice and price.

I am also betting each way on the following showing in the census

Galway and Dublin will show a higher household PC penetration than Cork and Limerick because of BB availability ....ie something to do with the PC once you have it .

I am additionally putting cash straight on the nose for this.

Galway and Dublin will show a greater relative growth in the period 2002 (last census page 86 of 126) to 2006 (this census) in Household PC penetration than Cork and Limerick and thats also because of BB availability .


I am so satisfied that the data will bear me out that I am calling this 3 part prediction matrix "The Law of The Sponge" . The predictions will require the averaging of the Dublin and Galway figures and the averaging of the Cork and Limerick figures across both censii in question .

The ICT Ireland Survey 2005 (not a census a survey OK) shows an interesting trend around pages 27 onwards. It does it by region though not by City .

1. No BB in Ireland 2000-2003 , PC penetration by household increases 3.2% a year (of all households) from 32.5% to 42.2% in that period.
2. BB finally appears in Ireland on a decent scale around 2004, PC penetration by Household increases 4% in 2004 and 8.7% in 2005 to 54.9%
.

PC Penetration and BB availability are inextricably intertwined. Because the rollout of BB was noticeable in the period from 2004 onwards people started to buy computers on a very large scale.

What comes first though , the computer or the Broadband ?????? Why! Its the Broadband Stoopid !!!`

Finally I would like to point yiz to the following thread on this board from JULY 2005. Who was right then ???? The (ICT Ireland 2005 survey had been done but not yet published )

watty

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Drogheda and Dundalk have the worst choice out of those you mentioned as Drogheda doesn't have Metro wireless and Dundalk doesn't have BT LLU (I think).

Do Chorus only supply MMDS in Limerick?

Doesn't Waterford have full choice too, SB?

Chorus do have Cable in Limerick City, but in some areas reception more reliable with MMDS or Satellite. The lad that think it is funny to throw a bicycle chain over power lines have on a few occasions hacksawed the cable.

Till recently they had the first Wireless BB product here too, "Powernet".