River decision 3/6

fuzzbox

3/6 6-max on Party
I have 750, villain has 600. I havent been here v.long, and dont have much on villain.

Preflop
I open to 21 utg with 99, only villain calls in the BB.

Flop (45)
Qd 9c 6s
Villain leads into me for 40 ... hmmm I make it 120, he calls. Hmmm I was half expecting a 3-bet.

Turn (285)
Ad
Check, 200, call .... hmmm

River (485)
Ks
Villain thinks for a while, and pushes for 270 or so. And hero?

califano

Call. He's got 2 pair at best i reckon. I'd like to think he doesnt have QQ and i can rule out the str8.

De Deraco

cant see him calling 200 on the turn with an open-ender, i'd put him on AQ trying to be crafty with his smooth call on the turn, i'd call. was the pot not 685 by the river.

AmarilloFats

As played I call river..
I like flop play.
But I push turn.

fuzzbox

AmarilloFats wrote:

As played I call river..
I like flop play.
But I push turn.

Seems a bit OTT ... why?

AmarilloFats

fuzzbox wrote:

Seems a bit OTT ... why?

After he bets 200 on the turn why not push..
You have a set. you want his stack. No reason to believe you have a better chance of getting it on river.
He surely would have thrown AK away to you flop raise.
So, ON TURN, that leaves AQ and 66 as reasonable hands you can beat..would not suspect JdTd, but possible. Knowing AA QQ beat me on turn I am happy to get all the money in knowing alot of worse hands call me..

On the River well now AA QQ KK JT all beat you..the only reasonabble holdings you beat are AQ and 66 ...It would be hell of a laydown.

But after thinking it through I think you're beat..I hope he had AQ

ianmc38

AmarilloFats wrote:

But I push turn.

Why do you want him to fold?

De Deraco

he is in the bb he checked the turn and smooth called fuzzboxs 200, thats why i'd guess he doesnt have AA QQ as he may as well re-raise on the turn with those hands .

ianmc38

Back to the issue at hand, we're getting about 3.5/1 to call here. I don't think he's called the turn with an open-ender. My only worry here is QQ-AA all of which could be played like this.

I call but I'm a pure donk at 3/6

AmarilloFats

ianmc38 wrote:

Why do you want him to fold?

I don't ..I want his money in the middle

fuzzbox

AmarilloFats wrote:

After he bets 200 on the turn why not push..
You have a set. you want his stack. No reason to believe you have a better chance of getting it on river.
He surely would have thrown AK away to you flop raise.
So, ON TURN, that leaves AQ and 66 as reasonable hands you can beat..would not suspect JdTd, but possible. Knowing AA QQ beat me on turn I am happy to get all the money in knowing alot of worse hands call me..

On the River well now AA QQ KK JT all beat you..the only reasonabble holdings you beat are AQ and 66 ...It would be hell of a laydown.

But after thinking it through I think you're beat..I hope he had AQ

He didnt bet 200 into me, he check/called 200.

careca

I dont think I could lay this down, but thats only me. The check call on the turn is the puzzling thing. If he has QQ I reckon he would reraise the turn, especially with the diamonds out there and now the A. I'll go for a badly played JT or 66. so you either win or lose, lol.

The fact that he went all in after a pause makes me think he is wondering if you have 10J, so I am going for 66.

ianmc38

AmarilloFats wrote:

I don't ..I want his money in the middle

And you think a push is the best way to achieve this?

A push will make him

1. Fold a draw - This is bad
2. Fold top pair, good kicker - This is bad
3. Fold middle pair, good kicker - This is bad
4. Probably fold top two pair - This is bad
5. Fold AA - This is bad
6. Call with a better set - This is bad
7. Consider folding 66 - This is bad.

Result IMHO. push = bad

AmarilloFats

Ianmc28
I misread OP I thought villain had bet 200 into fuzz, in which case I think fuzzz should push..

I think a 200 bet on turn is the right play....sorry about the confusion..
BTW read your blog for 1st time..glad it all went well

De Deraco

The pot is 685 on the river, not 485. therefore i cant see the hero folding for €270 when there is only two hands th villan could be playiin that beat him, Possibly QQ or AA, maybe even a very badly played KK. its an easy enough call i think if the villan has the higher set. thems the swings.

Bozzer

I raise to 180 on flop, then you can push the turn nice and smooth.

fixer

if it's a guess the hand, I do think he has JT diamonds. or he's a loosegoosey JTo.

I say this as if it were me, I suspect I might just play it the same way as the villian if I had JT.

cardshark202

He most likely doesn't have a T so I call. AQ seems like a possibilty, maybe a bigger set but there's too much in the pot to even consider folding imo.

MrPillowTalk

too much in the pot to fold

fuzzbox

Results:
The only two reasonable draws were JT and 78. When he led pot at the flop and only called ... I though maybe AQ, but when he didnt check/raise the turn, I really didnt think he had that hand, although it was certainly possible. I remember hating the K arriving, and when he thought and pushed, I really felt that he had JT, as it was the only hand that made sense. Mayyyyybbeee AA, but again I would expect a turn push there.

Anyway - I called (of course) and he had JTo. Damn you evil river.

fixer

is this an example of implied odds at work? trying to find a way to justify this play, if at all possible.

RoundTower

I would call. Too bad if he has JT or QQ, he could equally have hit a funny two pair.