Aintree Saturday

fade2black

ATR WTF?

I like the channel, (minus the ads aimed at those who are up to their bollox in debt), and I also like some of their presenters. However, almost everyone involved in the forecasting and tipping of racecards on the website wouldn't know their arse from the elbow. Below is the racecard for tomorrow's NHF race, the last in the card at Aintree.

I didn't get too involved in Aintree this year cause there really was no way to tell how horses that ran at Cheltenham were and also the dark horses etc...too many questions for me. However, I have been waiting for Alfie Flits. Here is the ATR card and betting forecast:


271 Dancewiththedevil (IRE) 19
b g Dr Massini - Hibba 5 11 - 4b1 N Fehily
Jonjo O'Neill -
2 127 Hennessy (IRE) 63
b g Presenting - Steel Grey Lady 5 11 - 4 C Llewellyn
M Pitman -
3 1124 Heraldry (IRE) 20
b g Mark of Esteem - Sorb Apple 6 11 - 4 G Bartley(10)
P C Haslam -
4 113 Kicks For Free (IRE) 24
b g Flemensfirth - Keep The Change 5 11 - 4 L Heard(5)
P F Nicholls -
5 1 Mam Ratagan 72
b g Mtoto - Nika Nesgoda 5 11 - 4 M A Fitzgerald
N J Henderson -
6 02119 Pangbourne (FR) 24
b g Double Bed - Valgrija 5 11 - 4b R Thornton
A King -
7 13 Pepporoni Pete (IRE) 35
b g Un Desperado - Sister Shot 5 11 - 4 R Walsh
P F Nicholls -
8 21- Pure Theatre (IRE) 547
b g King's Theatre - Direct Lady 6 11 - 4 D N Russell
E Griffin -
9 11 Ringaroses 49
b g Karinga Bay - Rose Ravine 5 11 - 4 T J Murphy
Miss H C Knight -
10 1-3 Round The Horn (IRE) 84
ch g Master Willie - Gaye Fame 6 11 - 4 J M Maguire
J A B Old -
11 11 Sir Jimmy Shand (IRE) 24
b g Accordion - Morganone 5 11 - 4 M Foley
N J Henderson -
12 1 Streetshavenoname (IRE) 20
b g Old Vic - Glore River 5 11 - 4 B J Geraghty
T J Taaffe -
13 2 Tidal Bay (IRE) 21
b g Flemensfirth - June's Bride 5 11 - 4 Michal Kohl(3)
J I A Charlton -
14 110 Wichita Lineman (IRE) 24
b g King's Theatre - Monumental Gesture 5 11 - 4 Mr J P Magnier(3)
Jonjo O'Neill -
15 1 Young Albert (IRE) 107
br g Taipan - Smooth Leader 5 11 - 4 A Dobbin
N G Richards -
16 111 Alfie Flits 59
b g Machiavellian - Elhilmeya 4 10 - 12 D C Costello(3)
G A Swinbank -
17 21 Astarador (FR) 86
b g Astarabad - Touques 4 10 - 12 G Lee
J Howard Johnson -
18 1 Chaim (IRE) 21
b g Lord Americo - Furry Gran 4 10 - 12 L Aspell
Mrs L Wadham -
19 2 Marine Life 24
b g Unfuwain - Aquamarine 4 10 - 12 T Doyle
P R Webber -
20 1 Risk Challenge (USA) 16
ch g Mt Livermore - Substance 4 10 - 12 P J Brennan
C J Price -
21 1 Sherwoods Folly 46
b g Classic Cliche - Action De Balle 4 10 - 12 R Johnson
H D Daly -
22 1172 Sword of Damascus (IRE) 65
b g Darshaan - Damascene 4 10 - 12 S J Craine(3)
D McCain -

Forecast: 6/1 Kicks For Free, 7/1 Pepporoni Pete, 8/1 Wichita Lineman, 9/1 Alfie Flits, 12/1 Sir Jimmy Shand, Streetshavenoname, Mam Ratagan, Ringaroses, 14/1 Dancewiththedevil, 16/1 Astarador, Pure Theatre, 20/1 Tidal Bay, Young Albert, Hennessy, Sherwoods Folly, 22/1 Pangbourne, 25/1 Round The Horn, Chaim, Risk Challenge, Heraldry, 33/1 Marine Life, 50/1 Sword of Damascus


I think I had a dream last night that this was how the race was going to be priced up. Absolute madness. If Alfie Flits goes off more than 2/3-1 I'll eat my hat and anyone else who'd like to offer up their hats for a tasty treat. (I ate my hat last yeat when Hedgehunter won the GN, this could be an annual feast)....

To hell with it, I'll eat my hat if Alfie Flits loses too.

9-1? You're having a laugh ATR.

00dyel

Im on Alfie Flits at 9's

00dyel

9-1 i thought i was going to get NOT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bookie said 3-1

scojones

That's mad because on their tipping competition they have it listed as 1.98/1, it's down as an approximate betfair value. You'd think they'd realise this. http://www.attheraces.com/national/tipping.asp?hlid=374532

fade2black

Will probably go off around 5/2 -3-1. It's a bumper after all but this horse is a good prospect.

finnpark

Apart from National what are your selections:

1.45pm: A difficult one with preference for Dusty Warbler or Beautiful Vision . Think Beautiful Vision will be placed at least and may be a good bet here.

2.15pm: Im really shying away from the favourite. Foreman has a good chance but Hoo La Baloo may be the best bet here. What a jumper and I think if any horse is suited to Aintree its Hoo La Baloo. Should go close.

2.50pm Al Eile here looks like an EW bet

Not really sure about any really, must have a better look tomorrow but what are your NAPs?

scojones

The standard of racing on Saturday is not as good as Friday's and I will probably not be betting much. In fact I'll probably just do a placepot and a lucky 15.

My placepot consists of:
Noble Request
Foreman
Asian Maze
Refinement
Garvivonnian
New Field

And my lucky 15 consists of:
Noble Request
Refinement
Garvivonnian
Alfie Flits

If Garvivonnian wins the national every bookie in Shannon will be broke (all 3 of 'em! ). Because it's a Limerick horse, every Tom, Dick and Harry is on it - as is always the case with local horses. Anyway, best of luck lads, I hope ye all do well tomorrow.

fade2black

Yes indeed Finnpark, open another thread called Aintree Saturday, just to annoy me.:rolleyes:

finnpark

fade2black wrote:

Yes indeed Finnpark, open another thread called Aintree Saturday, just to annoy me.:rolleyes:

I missed it. Sorry:D

jimmyboy

what does every1 think of Asian maze tomorrow in the 2:50.he's up against some good horses like STL, Hardy Eustace and Al Eile who are my only worries in the race

Healio

Well here are my selections for tomorrow:
(Due to the day that is in it, i will be busy all day writing out euro each-ways all day so its an e/w lucky 31 on the races, bar the national)

1:45 Beautiful Vision (e/w)
When it entered the race, the other entries said to me no chance (the likes of arcalis, kawagino etc.) however looking at the amount that have dropped out, he is entitled to take his chance. He is said to be flying at home again, and will appreciate coming into the race fresh.
2:15 Voy Por Ustedes (win)
A rightful favourite for this race, very impressive at cheltenham, nothing else in the race looks like it will over turn him.
2:50 Asian Maze (win)
God only knows what was going through mullins/the owners mind running in the champion hurdle, back to a trip that she has solid form (any race over 2m4f or longer - Ran 8 - won 6 2nd 2), the only danger is Al Eile.
3:25 Be Be King (win)
Absolute disaster last time out (barry factor for the conspiracy theorists in here) ground reported to be the reason, left-handed track might suit aswell.
4:15 Here is what ive backed:
Clan Royal (win - price to short for e/w) - Well all know the hard luck stories -> McCoy in flying form, could be his year.
Jack High (e/w) - love this horse have to back him.
Cornish Rebel (e/w) - tought he was going to win the gold cup, bad mistake cost him, he still has a big race in him, hopefully today!!
Nil Desperandum (e/w) - Been there done that finished 6th, 3 pound lower this time around.
Just in Debt (e/w) - fair form over the national fences (in beecher chase), placed beaten a length behind garvivonnian giving him a pound, 4 pounds better off today.
Native Upmanship (e/w) - maybe getting on a bit, i just cant believe he has run over two mile for so long, i think he is a nice price for a bit of each-way action (125/1)
5:00 Mon Mome (win)
Went into the notebook when 2nd to terivic back in november, i am very loyal to my notebook, thats all i can say.
5:35 Wichita Lineman (win)
Not going to have a bet here, so just to be different to the Alfie Flits brigade:p im gonna side with him, cheltenham run seemed to bad to be true, im willing to give him one more chance. Will also be keeping an eye on Streetshavenoname.

fade2black

The Alfie Flits brigade?? I'm offended, shocked agus horrified.

I've just been looking forward to see him run again, due to the nature of the race I won't be getting too heavily involved and I came across this tonight too...could be bull...but it's worrying nonetheless

EVENING ALL, just to let you know that its all sytems go for tommorow with SIR JIMMY SHAND, everything is perfect at the moment and fingers crossed it will be on the day, do not be put off by the fact that fitz is on MAM RATAGAN, this is part of the plan and will help our odds, at home SIR JIMMY has the beating of him. From what i have been told about the race our main danger is most likely too come from MAM RATAGAN, and marked improvement is expected from WICHITA LINEMAN and MARINE LIFE, bearing in mind a form line can be drawn through the latter two and with our own knowledge of MAM RATAGAN ,the advice is to fill your boots EACH WAY as SIR JIMMY ODDS are fantastic ,from our point of view and we are expecting nothing less than place money.
I would also advise you to combine MAM RATAGAN with SIR JIMMY in a forecast, and to keep a very close eye on market moves for the other two mentioned above. ALFIE FLITS and the Nicholls two can be the lays of the race, i am quite sure of that

Healio

fade2black wrote:

The Alfie Flits brigade?? I'm offended, shocked agus horrified.

smilie added -

fade2black

rag2gar

I'll be having a go on hardy eustace @3/1. (ran well at cheltenham against weaker opposition today and has the beating of al eile imho).
Not sure after that, perhaps alfie flitz considering the talk here. Is he that good? That kicks for free aint a bad horse seems like an open race to me.
Anyone else think voy por ustudes is terrible value at even money? Accordian etoile maybe??

scojones

rag2gar wrote:

Anyone else think voy por ustudes is terrible value at even money? Accordian etoile maybe??

I agree completely, Accordion Etoile didn't impress me at Cheltenham, even though it fell it was having a terrible run anyway. It hit a few before it ended up falling, there was something a miss. Maybe it has it sorted today, who knows? I'm siding with Foreman, who was beaten by 6l by Voy Por Ustudes at Cheltenham. If Foreman isn't in the top two I'll be very surprised.

I'm off out for the day lads, best of luck to all of you!

Crumbs

1:45 - Neveesou (e/w)
While I'm not keen on backing a Pipe horse, this one looks to be an improver who could well have a good few pounds in hand. A sharp, flat 2 miles on gd/sft seems ideal.

2:15 - Voy Por Ustedes (win)
Contrary to some other opinions here, I think he's a very likely winner. His Arkle win was quite impressive and the 6/4 that was available last night was a bit generous.

2:50 - Al Eile (win)
This is a really tricky race. Some of you might remember how keen I was on Sky's The Limit at Cheltenham (I'm still living off the winnings ) and I was hoping he might be a decent price for this race but at 5/2, I'm not sure he's worth the risk. Not quite enough value to find out just how good he is when he'll probably be available at better odds in similar races next season. Al Eile can solidly be expected to run a strong race (won this last year) and will be cutting down the leaders at the end. Obviously, Hardy Eustace and Asian Maze can't be ruled out either. No strong opinion on this race but a small win on Al Eile at around 10/3 is a fair bet.

3:25 - Hordago (e/w)
The fav, Refinement has a great chance in this handicap but at 10/1, I think Hordago is a good e/w bet. Up 6lbs for his 2nd in the Pertemps at Cheltenham, he has to run to his very best but should be bang in there with a shout.

4:15 - Clan Royal (win), Colonel Rayburn (e/w)
It's all been said before.

5:00 - No bet
Feckin' amateur jockey races! Always messing up my placepot! I'll probably just put 3 or 4 of them in my placepot perm but I don't know which ones yet.

5:30 - Streetshavenoname (maybe)
Tom Taaffe always knows what he's doing with his bumper horses and wouldn't have this one over in Aintree for nothing but I'll be watching the market before having any bet on it or anything else in the race.

All the best, people.

ricey

Yup the day has started well

had wellbeing at 7-1 €50

fade2black

:rolleyes:

finnpark

ricey wrote:

Yup the day has started well

had wellbeing at 7-1 €50

Great Stuff Ricey. Chickened out of this one myself. Any tips for later today?

kc66

Asian maze showed its class today.

rag2gar

sjones wrote:

I agree completely, Accordion Etoile didn't impress me at Cheltenham, even though it fell it was having a terrible run anyway. It hit a few before it ended up falling, there was something a miss. Maybe it has it sorted today, who knows? I'm siding with Foreman, who was beaten by 6l by Voy Por Ustudes at Cheltenham. If Foreman isn't in the top two I'll be very surprised.

I'm off out for the day lads, best of luck to all of you!

Yeah ended up backing foreman meself after hearing paul nolan's interview regarding accordian etoile. Another great AP ride as was refinement

6ix

Healio wrote:

5:00 Mon Mome (win)
Went into the notebook when 2nd to terivic back in november, i am very loyal to my notebook, thats all i can say.

Go mon mome! Thanks to you and your notebook, consoled me after the national

5:35 Wichita Lineman (win)

I put money on him at Cheltenham, let me down.. now, whether to give him a second chance....

iloveireland

how much would you get for a placepot of 5 euro

10/11 horse
5/2
11/1
15/2
7/1
11/4

fade2black

Think the placepot paid around 22 quid so you'll get 110

Crumbs

Yeah, 22.40 was the placepot dividend. It doesn't matter what prices the horses were, iloveireland. I got it up myself as well but it wasn't too difficult when you look over the results. Only one unplaced favourite again today.

iloveireland

ye i was expecting more but it was a free paddy power bet.

so if i had picked a horse at 100/1 and he came third in one race and someone had a 3/1 in the same race and th rest of our horses were the same in all the other races would we win the same.

if you know what i mean

Crumbs

Yep, you could have a 100/1 shot who WINS the race and someone else has the odds-on favourite who just manages to get 3rd and it wouldn't make a difference as far as a placepot is concerned.

iloveireland

next time i do something like this im not going to do a placepot but an accumulator.

5 euro on one horse to be placed and keep on accumulating it on to the rest of the horses. i would have won over 2 grand if i had done that today.

rag2gar

iloveireland wrote:

next time i do something like this im not going to do a placepot but an accumulator.

5 euro on one horse to be placed and keep on accumulating it on to the rest of the horses. i would have won over 2 grand if i had done that today.

Yeah i did one of them thingys yesterday and it went as follows.

€5 e/w accum

8/1 2nd
9/1 2nd
5/2 1st
4/1 2nd


got €88.30 for it!!

iloveireland

iloveireland wrote:

next time i do something like this im not going to do a placepot but an accumulator.

5 euro on one horse to be placed and keep on accumulating it on to the rest of the horses. i would have won over 2 grand if i had done that today.

for eg. could i have done this as a bet.

5 euro accumulator all to place.
WELLBIENG - 1.80/1
VOY POR USTEDES - .20/1
HARDY EUSTACE - .62/1
REFINEMENT - .68/1
NUMBERSIXVALVERDE - 2.75/1
MON MOME - 1.80/1

would have paid out as 480 euro.

chump

Definetely.
I tried doing one of those the other day (handy with PPower not allowing place bets .. close to the off)

Healio

iloveireland wrote:

for eg. could i have done this as a bet.

5 euro accumulator all to place.
WELLBIENG - 1.80/1
VOY POR USTEDES - .20/1
HARDY EUSTACE - .62/1
REFINEMENT - .68/1
NUMBERSIXVALVERDE - 2.75/1
MON MOME - 1.80/1

would have paid out as 480 euro.

Well in short no. PP rules state that you must have at least the same amount or higher as a win bet when having an each way bet.
e.g. you could have a tenner win a fiver place bet, but not a fiver win and tenner place. This also applies to multiples AFAIK. (If you manage to find different on paddypower.com or other such sources then im prepared to eat my pp uniform).:p

fade2black

sjones wrote:

I agree completely, Accordion Etoile didn't impress me at Cheltenham, even though it fell it was having a terrible run anyway. It hit a few before it ended up falling, there was something a miss. Maybe it has it sorted today, who knows? I'm siding with Foreman, who was beaten by 6l by Voy Por Ustudes at Cheltenham. If Foreman isn't in the top two I'll be very surprised.

I'm off out for the day lads, best of luck to all of you!

Just saw this now...well played Jonesy.

A good day for you too Healio by the looks of it. Well done.

Another busy festival over, well done to all who made money.

chump

Healio wrote:

Well in short no. PP rules state that you must have at least the same amount or higher as a win bet when having an each way bet.
e.g. you could have a tenner win a fiver place bet, but not a fiver win and tenner place. This also applies to multiples AFAIK. (If you manage to find different on paddypower.com or other such sources then im prepared to eat my pp uniform).:p

Hey Healio.
The bet I did the other day was definetely allowd 'technically' anyway and they took my money.
If they didn't pay up after taking the bet and ones money surely they'd be in deep water?
And I've done plenty of 'straight' place bets lately that have paid up. A few even in a mixed multiple (win and place) in chelt.

Healio

chump wrote:

And I've done plenty of 'straight' place bets lately that have paid up. A few even in a mixed multiple (win and place) in chelt.

In those cases i.e. cheltenham/aintree they do place only markets, but in general if you were to go in tomorrow for a place only accumalator at say tramore it would* not be taken.

*a new/tired/hung-over cashier may not notice, and if you kick up enough of a stink you will be paid.

Healio

fade2black wrote:

A good day for you too Healio by the looks of it. Well done.

If only we'd had an aintree fantasy comp!! I got my money back on the national, and a few extra (pints) euros on the e/w lucky 31. All in all a good week but it was a long time coming after that cheltenham!!

aido_2006

have never tried accumulators or any of them quickpicks before but im going to start, had the top 3 in the gold cup all placed and had 2nd, 3rd yesterday for the national, and i seem to end up backing placed horses with the occasional winner :rolleyes: so ive just started this morning with my first accumulator and lucky 15

scojones

fade2black wrote:

Just saw this now...well played Jonesy.

Thanks a million boss. My placepot was looking lovely after the first four races with 1 second place and 3 winners. Was raging I didn't do the first four from the placepot as my lucky 15. Ah well! A great Aintree for me this year, Cheltenham... what Cheltenham?

fr wishy washy

Only Asian Maze saved the Good Fr from a bloodbath.