Aintree Thursday

finnpark

What are your NAPs for Thursday?

Think that Mighty Man is only sure bet of the day??

scojones

This is a very short reply as I have to be up in a couple of hours, yah a couple

My nap is My Way De Solzen.
My other bets are Monkerhostin, Afsoun, Christy Beamish, Jacks Craic, Buena Vista, Wyldello.

Best of luck tomorrow, talk to ye tomorrow night / Friday.

The jock

Fair Along(NAP)
L'ami
Munster(N.B)
Monjoyau
Patman Du Charm
Chomba Womba

ChuckProphet

mighty man, beef or salmon, afsoun, blazing bailey (NAP)

Jak

My way de Solzen - Win - 2.00

Royal Emperor - E/W - 2.35

Nyrche - E/W - 4.20 (NAP)

Buena Vista - Win - 4.55

Also backing Gamble in Gold at Leicester from Vindon's choice to win.

Morgans

A field of nine runners line up for the Betfair Bowl at Aintree today, and with the bookies going 100/30 field there appears to be some value in deciding a pecking order among the Gold Cup also rans. Of those who ran in the race it is JP McManus’s new French purchase, L’Ami that fared best. Francois Doumen’s 7yo has yet to win this season but has run several great races, chasing home Trabolgan in the Hennessey and stablemate Innox in the Racing Post Chase off big weights, and finishing fourth in both the King George and the Gold Cup, finishing 10l behind War of Attrition three weeks ago. Wiith 22 facing the starter on Gold Cup day, its no surprise to see many talking on each other on in this Grade 2 contest. On Gold Cup day, L’Ami had two of tomorrow’s rivals directly behind him, Take The Stand finishing a half length further back in fifth, and Monkerhostin a further half length behind in sixth. Royal Emperor ran well for a long way and claimed eighth clear of the favourite Beef or Salmon who trailed in 11th. Ollie Magern finished third last and Celestial Gold unseated at the bottom of the hill first time round.

L’Ami looks to have strengthened up from last year, and now has Tony McCoy on board. He stayed on strongly from the second last to grab a piece of the Gold Cup prize money, but he was left when the principals kicked down the hill, suggesting that this sharp track would not play to his strengths. Last year he failed to confirm Sun Alliance Chase form with Like A Butterfly when third in the novice contest at this meeting (Tomorrow’s rival See You Sometime separated the pair) McCoy has done exceptionally well to ensure that the apparent lack of tactical speed didn’t effect Champion Hurdler Brave Inca this season, and should he do the same for L’Ami, he could very well confirm Gold Cup placings with those behind. A sound jumper and a strong stayer, he should enjoy the strong pace set by Ollie Magern and Royal Emperor, and if he doesn’t lose his place on the turn into the straight, he holds every chance to begin replaying McManus’s outlay.

Take the Stand has never won a graded chase, and a race of any description for the most of two years, and as a result has a nice pull at the weights with the principals. He has posted a series of fine efforts since last entering the winners circle, enjoying good ground to chase home Kicking King in last season’s Gold Cup before posting another huge performance to claim fifth three weeks ago. Strictly on the handicap, the 6lbs Peter Bowen’s 10yo receives from L’Ami and Monkerhostin means that he should come out on top. Always a better jumper on good ground, he needs to avoid the kind of errors that bedevilled his chasing career, and if Tony Dobbin’s mount puts in a clear round, he has strong claims of bottom weight. Any punter who believes in gravity must recognise the horse’s chance, but given the horses propensity to find a way to get beaten, he is opposed again. He has lost easier opportunities than this in the past.

Monkerhostin is interesting. Probably the most versatile horse in training, he beat Queen Mother favourite Kauto Star on his seasonal debut in the Haldon Gold Cup, before being exposed as too ponderous over his fences at shorter distances. Stepped up to 3m he stayed on better than anything to run Kicking King to a head in the King George, 12l clear of L’Ami in fourth. Promoted to second favourite in ante post lists of the Gold Cup as a result, he proved many critics wrong as the 9yo stayed the extended Gold Cup distance better than most, being closest at the finish. For all his fine efforts over fences, Philip Hobbs’s animal has never looked a natural over larger obstacles, making mistakes early on throughout a series of fast paced races. If avoiding those errors in this smaller field, his 2m pace might prove crucial on this sharp track, and while jumping fences appears to be more of an effort for the son of Shining Steel, he has more than enough ability to challenge the best at a range of distances. All ground appears to suit, and should Richard Johnson get the horse into an early rhythm he has the strongest claims of the principals.

Beef or Salmon is the imponderable in this race. A lot has been said and argued about the merits of this horse. The only animal to have beaten the last three Gold Cup winners never puts his best foot forward at Cheltenham, probably remembering the third fence fall on his first visit to the course, and even after a smoother than silk preparation this season, he once again failed to raise a gallop, and trailed well behind three Irish horses who recognise him as their superior on home ground. Most of his Grade 1 wins have come on Leopardstown’s soft ground, relishing the small field and slower pace, and the question is whether his poor performances are simply reserved for Cheltenham or if he is the same force when not racing on his ideal conditions.

Good ground was never a problem for the horse previously, something that pundit and fomer champion jockey John Francome opined on a recent visit to Hourigan’s yard, and it may be that softer conditions naturally reduce the speed at which the race is run at, allowing Beef or Salmon’s class to get him into the race unhurriedly. His jumping has been improved this season, while he is never going to gain ground through the air, he used to hesitate and prop into his obstacles losing lengths at each fence. Even on Gold Cup day, he jumped adequately, but was never in a position to get to grips with the leaders, and ran a lifeless sort of race. Aintree’s fences come quickly down the back straight, and with three confirmed front runners in the field, they should be going lickety split on what could be good quick ground.

Beef or Salmon punters invariably know their fate early, but when Ollie Magern set a strong pace at Haydock in the Betfair Chase in November, Beef or Salmon jumped those big uninviting obstacles well before laying down the final challenge to Kingscliff from the second last. The lack of an outing probably sealed the 10yo’s fate on that occasion, but it went to show that he can post top class efforts away from Leopardstown in strongly run races. One thing that Aintree has in common with both Leopardstown and Haydock is its flat left-handed nature. Eased when beaten in the Gold Cup, he didn’t have as hard a race at Cheltenham as those that finished ahead of him, and he has every chance of continuing Ireland’s good record in this race.

Had this contest moved to Leopardstown, Beef or Salmon would be a shorter price, less than 2/1 I would guess, and with the majority of layers looking to once again play up their Cheltenham winnings, he should start a longer price than his talent deserves. Anything over 3/1 would tempt me once more to forgive his British defeats, and to remember this season’s improved performances when beating War of Attrition, Hedgehunter, and Forget the Past, not to mention last year’s defeats of Kicking King and Best Mate. I would prefer if he was ridden a bit handier to a strong pace but if Carberry can get the horse into his own rhythm, at the odds he can be punted on to swamp his rivals for speed over the final half mile. He has disappointed before, and it is entirely understandable if punters, burnt before, do not punt on the horse again.

Celestial Gold never looked to be comfortable in Timmy Murphy’s hands in the Gold Cup before he unseated painfully at the bottom of the hill on the first circuit. It was the 2004 Hennessey winner’s first start for the season, and while he would be a dangerous rival to dismiss out of hand, his stable have not clicked since Novemeber’s open meeting. Martin Pipe’s 8yo was well supported by David Johnson for the Gold Cup suggesting he was ready to run his race then, but he is left alone until he shows something on the track that suggests that he is worthy of such esteem. Still somewhat guessing at the horse’s true ability, but there are enough negatives to simply watch him this time.

Royal Emperor was a fine hurdler for Sue Smith in his younger days, and looked to be developing into a top class chaser when splitting Rule Supreme and Our Vic in the 2004 Sun Alliance Chase. He somewhat lost his way after falling in a novices event at this festival two years ago, and spent a long time in the wilderness until chasing home The Bajan Bandit in a handicap chase at Ayr. Heavy ground used to see this horse in his best light, given that the horse possesses a relentless gallop, but he ran a fine race from the front on better ground at Cheltenham three weeks ago. However, this sharper track and his tendency to hit a few fences along the way means that there should be at least one or two too speedy for the horse at the business end of the race. Finishing in the frame would be a big achievement for the 10yo.

Royal Emperor will he harried up front by Ollie Magern. Unbeaten in novice company last season until a pre-cheltenham injury ended his year, he came back in great style to land the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby. His trainer and supporters expected Ollie to make his mark in the highest grade but he has sadly gone backwards since, putting in a series of miserable performances in a list of races. The course and ground would have been ideal for the horse and had he shown any glimmer of form, his front running bold jumping style would have made him hard to catch in this event, but he is impossible to support given his recent performances. If unless someone puts stupid odds on of 100/1+ on Betfair, you could part with a euro or two, but he looks one to avoid until freshened up. Twiston-Davies has his stable in fine form each October/Novermber and it may be that Ollie Magern’s best chance of victory in a top notch chase will once again come in next year’s Charlie Hall.

Morgans

The two horses that didn’t contest the Gold Cup deserve some consideration. My Will has struggled to make his mark over fences, despite bullish comments from the trainer early on, and a good win over Ashley Brook and Contraband at Uttoxeter as a novice. He seems to be a little trip less, often running on late in contests when unlikely to win. He has plenty to find with L’Ami on the Racing Post Chase form and while he stayed on gamely when well behind the principals in the Ryanair Chase at the festivals, three miles is beginning to look like the horses minimum. Like some other horses in the race, he has found it difficult to put his head in front in lesser contests than this, and despite Ruby Walsh’s presence on board, he looks up against it in this company.

See You Sometime could run a lot better than his current odds suggest. He has managed to land some decent contests for Jackie Mullins, beating My Will in a Grade 2 at Windsor last season, before taking the Grade 1 Cotswold Chase moved from Cheltenham to Wincanton in February, benefiting from the decision to move the race to a sharp track. At Cheltenham, he finished a long way behind Fondmort and My Will in the Ryanair Chase, but this good jumping front runner, should be in the mix from flagfall today. Given that he put up his best performance in the novice event 12 months ago on this track, Aintree suits the horse perfectly and there are worse place bets than to speculate that this horse benefits from the jumping errors from rivals. He shouldn’t be quite good enough to hold off all comers, but he should do better than his odds suggest.

L’Ami has the best jumping of the principals and with Tony McCoy to galvanise the horse should he get outpaced, he is the solid option. That said, there are more talented horses in the race, and with Take The Stand finding it very difficult to get his head in front, it is left to Monkerhostin, who has a lot going for him in this company and should go very close, but he is not the easiest horse to get a grip on, and it is the enigmatic Beef or Salmon who interests most at the prices. Although the percentage call is to oppose Beef or Salmon away from Ireland, 100/30 and bigger is available with the high street bookies, and it is simply too big to resist for a horse that has simply more talent than his rivals. Of those at longer odds, See You Sometime might run into a place if all falls right for the horse.

finnpark

sjones wrote:

My nap is My Way De Solzen.

Im laying this one. Think it will be beaten today.

phantom_lord

2.35 Monkerhostin

Corben Dallas

I'm laying BoS, up against quialty up and down the field, wont be able to niggle his way into this race will have to win it. Only plus is that its a smaller field than Chelts.

BoS seems to be able to dominate in Ireland where hes never against more than 2/3 quality horses in the field. Plus i think we can say the turning over of War of Attrition in the Lexus was down to WoA not being 100 fit, which flattered BoS.

fr wishy washy

E/W Fundamentalist in the 2.00
E/W Bleu Superbe in the 4.20

RedPeppers

Andreas in the 4.20 has a great chance will be on him at 9/2 has ideal trip/ground and will in my opinion take some stopping.

Also will be doing My Way De Solzen 2.00 cant see him losing.

finnpark

RedPeppers wrote:

Andreas in the 4.20 has a great chance will be on him at 9/2 has ideal trip/ground and will in my opinion take some stopping.

Each Way for me at 9/2.

Redlancer

Well I think this meeting is better than cheltenham as there are not as many poor handicaps
My selections

2.00 Fundamentalist (did beat Inglis Dreaver)
2.35 Beef or Salmon
3.10 Fair Along (just as i had him e/w in triumph)
3.45 Munster e/w
4.20 Mansony
4.55 Blazing Bailey Nap

last race I would leave be

iloveireland

3:10 - AFSOUN - NAP
2:35 - MONKHERHOSTIN
4:20 - NYRCHE - e/w - i think someone said this above aswell. - should go well
4:55 - BOYCHUCK - is as good as any of these and is fresh from not running at cheltenham where i fancied him anyway.

chump

Has to be Detroit in the next. Friendless it seems, but I'm on. Fair Along nb?

fade2black

I'm on Afsoun, just because I really wanted to back the horse at Cheltenham but the vibes were poor about the horse. Don't think it's going to be a good Aintree for the Cheltenham winners. Sure we'll see..

fade2black

fade2black wrote:

I'm on Afsoun, just because I really wanted to back the horse at Cheltenham but the vibes were poor about the horse. Don't think it's going to be a good Aintree for the Cheltenham winners. Sure we'll see..

Haha, yeah right. What a game horse. Well done to those that backed DC.

Redlancer

DC has shown his class I must say and hold my hands up and say I didnt think he could do it. It looks like a horse with real steel. Could be a champion hurdle contender in waiting. Getting a bashing at the moment

finnpark

finnpark wrote:

What are your NAPs for Thursday?

Think that Mighty Man is only sure bet of the day??

Nice return here, got it at about 10/3 on Betfair. Well up for the week now. Layed fav too. With Ballycass back in the National it could be a great week:D

aido_2006

havent done bad myself so far... 2 places in first two with my way de solzen and l'ami and a win with detroit city... hopefully andreas runs a good next one!!

eirebhoy

I had Katarino in the last thanks to his massive rating here:

http://www.adrianmassey.com/6/rating.php

jimmyboy

I did a yankee today and I'v had Mighty Man, Detroit City,Celestail Gold and I have Andreas in the next to finish a great day.I also had E2 e/w on Beachcomber Bay. graet day for me:D

Jak

Nyrche placed, saved my day, great race .. so close to a fantastic result.

aido_2006

jimmyboy wrote:

I did a yankee today and I'v had Mighty Man, Detroit City,Celestail Gold and I have Andreas in the next to finish a great day.I also had E2 e/w on Beachcomber Bay. graet day for me:D

Nice One!!

Had andreas and nyrche backed each way their so going well...

next one im going for buena vista...

chump

Nrych woulda completed a beautiful day for me...
Had Mighty Man and DC...

ew on nyrch so no loss

eirebhoy

Jak wrote:

Nyrche placed, saved my day, great race .. so close to a fantastic result.

It would have been 3 in a row for Adrian Massey's sytem.

jimmyboy

It's a great horse, but I think Natal may just get the better of him

rag2gar

Anyone think thorntons horse is going to win the 4.55. Layed him on betfaair there at 4.6

chump

I'm on him

scojones

sjones wrote:

My nap is My Way De Solzen.
My other bets are Monkerhostin, Afsoun, Christy Beamish, Jacks Craic, Buena Vista, Wyldello.

Best of luck tomorrow, talk to ye tomorrow night / Friday.

Well, my placepot was ruined by the time I got home, soon as I turned on the tv they announced that Jacks Craic was second from the back and I dropped my head, but it moved up beautifully to win it in fine style. Nice each way value on Christy Beamish too. Looks like a better Aintree than Cheltenham for me already.

aido_2006

A win for natal...

Healio

Amaretto Rose is my nap of the day. So far have had mighty man, premier dane e/w and blazing bailey. My day rests on amaretto rose and middlesbrough getting into the semi's.

TwistsAndTurns

Late getting up (on nights) backed Natal and Wyldello singles and doubles.

http://www.adrianmassey.com/6/rating.php, first time seeing this very interesting!

aido_2006

Good first day had Rhacophorus at 8/1 backed e/way...