How much to bet?

valor

2/4 NL at party
Villain sitting with 800, I cover
He hasnt been at the table for that long, but he doubled up recently when he called a big bet on the turn with QQ vs aflush and hit a 4th heart on river, opponent pushed with a low flush and he called with the Q high flush

table folds to villain on button who makes it 15, I make it 48 in the SB with KK. Villain calls

Flop comes AJ9 rainbow
YUCK. Pot is now 110, i fire 75. Villian calls. Okay so far?

Turn comes a K. Bingo!! [I think]
pot is 260, we both have over 650 left behind.

How to proceed?

a-k-47

Pot bet the turn, if he calls, river blank, push for the rest.. a rag?..if not unlucky if villain called the re raise with q10 or slowed aa...

RoundTower

valor wrote:

2/4 NL at party
Villain sitting with 800, I cover
He hasnt been at the table for that long, but he doubled up recently when he called a big bet on the turn with QQ vs aflush and hit a 4th heart on river, opponent pushed with a low flush and he called with the Q high flush

table folds to villain on button who makes it 15, I make it 48 in the SB with KK. Villain calls

Flop comes AJ9 rainbow
YUCK. Pot is now 110, i fire 75. Villian calls. Okay so far?

Turn comes a K. Bingo!! [I think]
pot is 260, we both have over 650 left behind.

How to proceed?

I would bet the pot or just less than the pot here. Of course he might have AA/QT, but from the sound of it this guy will pay you off with any two pair, so I am willing to go broke here. If you check or bet any less than 200 the pot is too small on the river.

pok3rplaya

Just play your standard line as if you had AQ or whatever. If that means bet pot then thats what you do, if you usually bet half pot or 2/3 then do that. If he was anyway tricky I'd be tempted to run a C/R on him like you're afraid of the A but it sounds like with this guy you're going to have to do the betting for him. It feels like he hit the A.

Just bet and try to get it AI.

fuzzbox

pok3rplaya wrote:

If he was anyway tricky I'd be tempted to run a C/R on him like you're afraid of the A

Do you want him to fold?

pok3rplaya

fuzzbox wrote:

Do you want him to fold?

Nah but if he has a weakish Ace then he just might fold if you bet into him again. A C/R gets another bet out of him if he's floating on your flop bet. Also if he's not going to fold anyway then its an effective way to get the pot big enough to get AI.

Here its not worth it though IMHO because of the way the board is lining up and the type of player he is.

Ste05

I think I'd make it 200 to go here, that way it leaves him with enough to come over the top All-In if he wants to. It also builds the pot enough that I can push all-in on the river without it being an overbet to the pot. This is my standard line for situations like this and I'd be interested to hear any alternative lines....

ianmc38

I was at the table of an almost identical hand on Doyles Room the other night. $2/$4 NL, the villain had called the big raise with QTo.

I hope there was a different outcome here!

I like to bet about 200 here as well.

Ollieboy

I think a pot bet here is to big, you want to get paid and its unlikely that he has Q10 or AA, so I would be trying to milk this for as much as its worth.

If you check, its very likely that he'll check behind you and take the free cards, so I would rather bet here and make it look like I'm trying to push him off the pot, so I would try to bet an amount that looks weak, but also enough to force him out of the hand, your last bet of 75 was called, so I would bet between 130/150 here, I would rather the 130 amount as its 1/2 the pot and makes it look like your not pot commit and still trying to be aggressive. It also gives him the option of bluffing or coming over the top of you by going all-in.

I think a bigger bet and he'll drop the hand. With a 130 bet you can push a 200 bet on the river or another 150 bet, the trick he is to get paid.

Also is raise on the blinds, could be a standard steal attempt and he’s feeling over confident after this flush hand, so I would be trying to get paid the max here and if I bet the pot and he fold, I wouldn’t be a happy bunny.

eggie

He could also be holding A J, A 9, A K, A Q, A 10 - leaving him behind but possible outs on the riverfor a bigger house or a straight. I'd make it expensive for him to see the river and wouldnt be too worried about him folding because he doesnt have the odds to call. If he has aces or Q 10 he'll possibly re-raise ya on the turn, if not he'll take a freee card if you decide to check hoping for him to bet so you can re-raise him. I would definitely NOT give him the chance of a free card!!

POT

Ste05

Ollieboy wrote:

I think a bigger bet and he'll drop the hand. With a 130 bet you can push a 200 bet on the river or another 150 bet, the trick he is to get paid.

The trick is to stack him.

Ollieboy

Ste05 wrote:

The trick is to stack him.

Theres a thin line between stack him and getting paid, I think a big bet will push him of the hand. He raise on the button, with a marginal to good hand and your betting him on him having a monster hand also, I dont think thats likely, the trick is to get paid and that means value betting him to the river.

Eggie, he's a 7% chance for him here and to be honest, we could have more outs than him with the board pairing etc, the only hand your worried about his AA and I think he would have reraise preflop if he had the Bullits.

I think he might have had a pocket pair or A rag and a pot bet would force him out.

So what happen?

delanec8

Ollieboy wrote:

I think a pot bet here is to big, you want to get paid and its unlikely that he has Q10 or AA, so I would be trying to milk this for as much as its worth.

If you check, its very likely that he'll check behind you and take the free cards, so I would rather bet here and make it look like I'm trying to push him off the pot, so I would try to bet an amount that looks weak, but also enough to force him out of the hand, your last bet of 75 was called, so I would bet between 130/150 here, I would rather the 130 amount as its 1/2 the pot and makes it look like your not pot commit and still trying to be aggressive. It also gives him the option of bluffing or coming over the top of you by going all-in.

I think a bigger bet and he'll drop the hand. With a 130 bet you can push a 200 bet on the river or another 150 bet, the trick he is to get paid.

Also is raise on the blinds, could be a standard steal attempt and he’s feeling over confident after this flush hand, so I would be trying to get paid the max here and if I bet the pot and he fold, I wouldn’t be a happy bunny.

I dont think the trick is to get paid everytime. You shouldnt be worried about the times which you could have milked a little more off him. I think you should be more interested in making the most over the long term and by only betting 130 on the turn and 200 on the river you are letting him off cheaply if he has two pair or a set of Js or 9s. (youre leaving about 350 which could have been won).

By the way you have described this player, he would be willing to get all his chips in with any two pair or even AQ so i like the 200 bet on the turn and then all in on the river. A-Rag may be the only type of hand which this player will call your 130,200 bets and fold to 200,all in.

IMO check raising here is not an option. There aren't many situations in a cash game where it is a good move imo. I dont think trying to induce a bluff by betting relatively small is a good move either unless you have good notes on the player.

Ollieboy

I cant believe you people, you have 3 kings, there's only 2 hands that can beat you at this stage, AA or Q10, and you want to force him out of the hand. The last bet was 75 and now you want to jump to 260 because thats the pot size! Theres a big difference between calling 260 and calling 75, betting 260 gives him no option but to be fully committed to the pot and he's not going to do that with a marginal hand. If your not going to get paid with 3 kings, when the .... do you get paid....


Value bet it and get paid, if he as AA or Q 10, than the poker gods are against you, if he as 2 pairs, he'll hopefully raise, but I would rather have an extra 330 of his money in there than getting no more in.

RoundTower

You want to get paid for his whole stack, and he is quite deep. Even if you stack him only half as often as you take 250 off him, it is better to aim to stack him.

I think a small bet of 150 here looks almost as strong as 220, but it makes it so much harder to get paid on the river.

delanec8

Ollieboy wrote:

I cant believe you people, you have 3 kings, there's only 2 hands that can beat you at this stage, AA or Q10, and you want to force him out of the hand. The last bet was 75 and now you want to jump to 260 because thats the pot size! Theres a big difference between calling 260 and calling 75, betting 260 gives him no option but to be fully committed to the pot and he's not going to do that with a marginal hand. If your not going to get paid with 3 kings, when the .... do you get paid....


Value bet it and get paid, if he as AA or Q 10, than the poker gods are against you, if he as 2 pairs, he'll hopefully raise, but I would rather have an extra 330 of his money in there than getting no more in.

We dont want to force him out of the hand. We want to maximise our profit over time. Betting 200(not 260) imo is the best way to do this.

His hand range after calling that flop would usually be (AA, Q10, JJ, 99, AK, AQ, AJ, A9, J9 Any other Arag suited, maybe even KJorQJ although not likely). We will usually lose all our money when he has AA or Q10 regardless of what we bet. When he has JJ or 99 we will probably stack him no matter how we bet because you will often be reraised.

If he has AK,AQ,AJ,A9,J9,KJ, most of the time he will commit all his chips if we oblige by betting heavy enough. In these situations value betting saves the villian €350. With any other ace the villian may call €200(but will mostly fold) on the turn but more often than not will fold an all in on the river. A lot of the time the villian will fold an Arag to €130 on the turn anyway. A lot of the hands which the villian has which he is willing to call your value bets with are also hands which he is willing to go broke on. Attempting to stack him only has to work half the amount of time value betting works to make it a more profitable move and considering his hand range imo i think it would.

Hectorjelly

200 on turn - push river

Ste05

What if he calls, do you really think there's any hand he's calling for $130 but folding for $200. IMO this little bet of $130 actually looks stronger than a bet of $200, why would you bet so little on this board, (A raiser's dream board BTW) I think there's a better chance he'll fold here for the 130 "milking bet" just because it's so obvious.

If you bet $200, it's a pretty standard raise, and one that you'd do with any hand you had here, that size raise only gives him 2 options, that being an All-In re-raise (meaning you might be able to get away from AA - read dependant) or to call and pot commit himself (hopefully without realising it). Also in the OP the Villian is described as someone who will call a big Turn bet, why you would telegraph your hand like this with a small bet. There's a slim chance he's re-raising you here, if he has AJ/ A9/ AK/ 99 he'll call both a turn and river bet, but there's more likelihood of stacking him with a $200 bet on the turn (making the pot $660 with both having $450 behind for a river bet. Much better line than betting $130 making the pot $520 and leaving $520 each behind. Which line do you think has a better chance of getting all his money.

Also what hands do you think he's calling $130 on the Turn and $200 on the River, but folding to $200 on the turn and 300-450 on the river??

Ollieboy

Ste05 wrote:

What if he calls, do you really think there's any hand he's calling for $130 but folding for $200. IMO this little bet of $130 actually looks stronger than a bet of $200, why would you bet so little on this board, (A raiser's dream board BTW) I think there's a better chance he'll fold here for the 130 "milking bet" just because it's so obvious.

If you bet $200, it's a pretty standard raise, and one that you'd do with any hand you had here, that size raise only gives him 2 options, that being an All-In re-raise (meaning you might be able to get away from AA - read dependant) or to call and pot commit himself (hopefully without realising it). Also in the OP the Villian is described as someone who will call a big Turn bet, why you would telegraph your hand like this with a small bet. There's a slim chance he's re-raising you here, if he has AJ/ A9/ AK/ 99 he'll call both a turn and river bet, but there's more likelihood of stacking him with a $200 bet on the turn (making the pot $660 with both having $450 behind for a river bet. Much better line than betting $130 making the pot $520 and leaving $520 each behind. Which line do you think has a better chance of getting all his money.

Also what hands do you think he's calling $130 on the Turn and $200 on the River, but folding to $200 on the turn and 300-450 on the river??

This guy as raised from the blind when everyone else fold, I would be 90% sure he does not have a monster and a Ace would be the best we can hope for, you want to get as much of this guy as possible and betting the pot would be brilliant if he called. I guess the reason Valor is asking the question, is he overbet the hand and loss the fish. But I'll leave that for him to tell us.

The reason I would bet 130 is, I hoping he see's the chance to come over the top and might see the bet as been weak, I would even bet 150 to double original bet, if he as an ace he might force raise and if he thinks he's ahead he'll re-raise and you can push all in. If he calls, you can bet 300 on his river. In a 2/4 cash game you'll be doing very well to get his stack with a pair of Aces.

Ollieboy

delanec8 wrote:

We dont want to force him out of the hand. We want to maximise our profit over time. Betting 200(not 260) imo is the best way to do this.

His hand range after calling that flop would usually be (AA, Q10, JJ, 99, AK, AQ, AJ, A9, J9 Any other Arag suited, maybe even KJorQJ although not likely). We will usually lose all our money when he has AA or Q10 regardless of what we bet. When he has JJ or 99 we will probably stack him no matter how we bet because you will often be reraised.

If he has AK,AQ,AJ,A9,J9,KJ, most of the time he will commit all his chips if we oblige by betting heavy enough. In these situations value betting saves the villian €350. With any other ace the villian may call €200(but will mostly fold) on the turn but more often than not will fold an all in on the river. A lot of the time the villian will fold an Arag to €130 on the turn anyway. A lot of the hands which the villian has which he is willing to call your value bets with are also hands which he is willing to go broke on. Attempting to stack him only has to work half the amount of time value betting works to make it a more profitable move and considering his hand range imo i think it would.

if you bet the pot you'll force him out of the pot and I cant see him calling 200 with a pair of Aces.

Ste05

Ollie, my question was: What hands do you think he will call or re-raise $130 but fold to $200 on this board?? There's basically none, unless he's an idiot, in which case it doesn't matter what you bet.

Here's an example of a situation where this smaller raise will lose you equity, say he has 99, JJ, A9, AJ, even AK, you bet $130, he re-raises to $350, now you push. This gives the Villain a great opportunity to drop all these hands. He may not, but it gives him the opportunity to do so. But he is guaranteed to call with AA. And if he does fold, it's cost you about $300, because more often than not these hands he'll call both a turn and river bet. If you just bet standard there's a much better chance you get his whole stack.

On another level, say you just bet $130 and he just calls with these hands, then you bet another $250 on the River, again he'll just call. Hence actually losing you about $300 again. Do you really think A rag (or any hand for that matter) is calling $130 or re-raising on this Board. If he's not calling $200 he's not calling $130 either. If he doesn't have a hand to play on the Turn, he doesn't. You need to maximise your potential earnings. If he folds so be it.

The only time I'd ever bet $130 would be if I knew the Villain likes to call continuation bets on the flop with the intention of bluffing on the turn, I'd also have to be sure he knew I was capable of laying down big hands. But this level of thinking isn't normally required.

IMO betting smaller is a bet that loses you money in the long term.

ianmc38

Betting 130 here is horrible IMHO.

valor

I thought id fold out everything apart from AA with a big bet so i bet $150. He called.

river comes a 9 to make me second boat

I bet $300.

Good or bad??

Ste05

Turn was really the key point of this hand TBH, this is probably all you can extract from a weaker hand now, JJ or A9 might possibly push now, but unlikely, obviously 99, AA both push now, which you really have to call. You could have tried pushing here, but it lets alot of hands get away. What happened in the end??

Paul Tergat

Valor got called by JJ, nice turn then!