Follow the Maidens

fade2black

The basic premise of this new fangled system (if I can call it that) is to follow the early flat season maidens and flag horses that have run well on their debuts or first time out this year.

Factors to look out for include -
Will they do better over further/shorter?
Will they do better on more suitable ground?

As soon as the horse is flagged it will be put in to a horse tracker and then the subsequent race he/she is entered in will be evaluated to see if the horse is worth a bet.

The qualifiers will then be posted up here.
__________________
First Qualifier:

Thursday March 30th
Lingfield 2:30

Royal Bandit

Had its first day at school at Kempton last Saturday and ran quite well just going down by a neck at 16-1. My notes about this horse were to not back it in a better event than he contested first time out until he was more proven. This basically means that I had my doubts about the quality of the opposition, hence the quality of the form.

Tomorrow's race is inferior to last saturday so this one should take all the beating if he's learned from his first time out.

fade2black

Royal Bandit finished fourth. The horse drifted from 11-8 to 2-1 and ran very green. Still finished better than anything though and if the race was 6f he would have been a decisive winner. This horse remains in the tracking list but will only be backed in this grade (or maybe Cl5) again and at 6 furlongs.

Tomorrow's Qualifiers:

Monday April 3rd
Southwell 2:30

Urban Warrior

Finished 2nd in his only two outings to date. Last time looked uncomfortable turning the bends and had too much to do to catch the front runner. Finished well though and looks a horse that will win at 6 or 7 furlongs. The trainer goes 5furlongs again today but I think more positive tactics (under Frankie Detorri) will see him break his duck.

Lingfield 2:40

Everyman

3rd in the Brocklesby last week which is obviously the best form in this contest today. Lost a lot of ground at the start and finished with some purpose. Looks sure to come on from that initial run and will take all the beating here if he's learned from his debut.

F/C Prices (my own)
Urban Warrior - 8-13
Everyman 3-1 (Fast Freddie will probably be the unworthy favourite)

So far:

Qualifiers: 1
Winners: 0

masterK

I think you are on to something with Everyman, I took a note on him after the Brocklesby, he was very green early on but finsished impressively. I'd say he'll go favourtie today, probably 7/4 or 2/1.

fade2black

Urban Warrior beaten a nose by a newcomer. Can't account for the newbies unfortunately. Luckily the price was too restrictive anyway.

fade2black

Well we're seeing the problem with this system now. Everyman didn't bother to leave the stalls. Really frustrating, but we're dealing with kids after all.

wolfe

miss kool cat got left behind in the stalls in that race but still managed a creditable 4th. Was Backed in from 10's to 4/1. One to follow i reckon.

fade2black

There was only one horse left in the stalls in that race...that one may have missed the break. Definitely follow him though mate.

wolfe

sorry, my mistake i meant to isay t missed the break.

It felt like an eternity before it got out of the stalls. had it backed at 10's! Pity though it didn't get placed.

keano442

wolfe wrote:

miss kool cat got left behind in the stalls in that race but still managed a creditable 4th. Was Backed in from 10's to 4/1. One to follow i reckon.

my own theory is to oppose short-priced two-year-old maidens who have one promising run behind them, because you just don't know how 2yos will react to their first experience of the track. They're only babies with plenty to learn and they can easily run below par on their second course experience.

MISS KOOL CAT will fall into this category next time around after today's run. I will probably be laying her on the exchanges next time out, as she could well go off at 6/4 or so given the money that came today.

fade2black

That's not a bad theory at all keano and many people do oppose these horses when they are 2-1 or under next time.

I didn't bet on these horses today and I still believe that it could be a worthwhile experiment come the summer. All these horses will be fresh in the mind of everyone on here and I think they are all winners waiting to happen.

keano442

it's great to pick out horses from watching races and putting them in the notebook for the future, there's no doubt about it. I'd been waiting for a while for GVA Ireland before he won at Uttoxeter a few weeks ago - he caught my eye at Navan before Christmas.

Fyodor was another I picked out on the Flat last year after he got no run at all in a race at Beverley last Septemer - he duly won on his next two starts at 4s and 8s (though I missed the second one ... d'oh).

No doubt you will pick several winners from taking note of eye-catching horses, and it's great fun when it comes off. Just be wary of those two-year-olds...

k.

fade2black

Warwick 3:55 Days of my Life
Yarmouth 3:35 Eagle Eye

wolfe

And Miss Kool Kat Runs Again Todayin The 6.05 Bev.
Keano Was Right........... 6/4 Favourite........i Think I Will Steer Clear!!

fade2black

Maybe until they're proven themselves. My horse tracker let me down last weekend as two qualifiers ran, one won and the other placed at a big price. If there's anything to be learned from this system is that

1. Some races just don't work out (i.e this years brocklesby)
2. These horses are only kids and will take longer than 1-2 outings to see them in their true light.


I'll list all the qualifiers on this thread soon and we can all follow their progress, without investing any money of course.

fade2black

I've eased off a little on this but the Horse Tracker informs me about DRAGON DANCER in the 5.25 at Newbury. The step up in trip should be a help. Decent chance.

fade2black

Beaten into 2nd by the gamble of the day. 8-1

scojones

fade2black wrote:

Beaten into 2nd by the gamble of the day. 8-1

Not bad at all boss. Keep this up, it's interesting to say the least. It's risky as you've already highlighted but I'm sure it will click.

fade2black

Follow the maidens to the derby?

Ah well, Visindar wasn't what I though he'd be against that opposition.