saturday?

Ideo

tranquilizer in the 4.25 at kempton. ive been stalking the boards for a while now, thought i should post something!

fade2black

Seems everyone has been stalking these boars lately. Something about this week that they're all coming out of the woodwork. Welcome scooby...good luck with tranquilizer

ziggy

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wolfe

my selection today is LUDOVICO at Kempton. Notably Callan is riding at Lingfield today but moves over to Kempton for this one ride.

Being backed already best price 11/4 at the moment.

Repli

scooby_doo_no1 wrote:

tranquilizer in the 4.25 at kempton. ive been stalking the boards for a while now, thought i should post something!

Is that from the stables or are you just guessing? He's in the 5.25 by the way, not 4.25

scojones

So it's April Fools day, I might as well make a fool of myself by actually betting today then.

I'm also going to go with Young Mick in the 2.30 at Lingfield, I've been following that for quite a while now and it had a great win during the week for me at 2/1. Back on the A.W today, it should run a good one.

Fontwell 2.20 Oscar Jack
Did extremely well in France, making it's English debut today. This is a very poor race and I cannot see this being beaten at all.

Kempton 4.25 Border Music
I've selected this horse many a time on this forum in the past. Super form in it's last three starts, but it has to overcome a minor shift in the weights to beat these. If it can reproduce it's form it showed in it's last three races it should win again.

I also agree with Tranquilizer in the 5.25 at Kempton, I can't see Llamadas overcoming the weight it has with the wide draw it has today.

There's no much to chose from today. I'll have a look at the other cards and possibly add to these. That's my Lucky 15 and a few trixies for good measure.

Ideo

i was having a look at the cards yesterday and only post it up last night when i got in...after a few drinks! but i still give him a shot. and no its not from the stables

wb

Lingfield 3.05

Is there anyting that can beat MY AMALIE in this race? I can't come up with many negatives for it. VERY short price, (Currently 1.26 on betfair, and 1/4 with most bookies) but it is an absolut banker in my book.

fade2black

wbailey wrote:

Lingfield 3.05

Is there anyting that can beat MY AMALIE in this race? I can't come up with many negatives for it. VERY short price, (Currently 1.26 on betfair, and 1/4 with most bookies) but it is an absolut banker in my book.

And it's priced accordingly. Like Shalapour last week...you really want to get involved at that price??

Repli

Lingfield 3.05

Is there anyting that can beat MY AMALIE in this race? I can't come up with many negatives for it. VERY short price, (Currently 1.26 on betfair, and 1/4 with most bookies) but it is an absolut banker in my book.

I've seen a 1/7 shot lose in a 3 horse race before when I worked in the bookies, it wouldn't surprise me if he lost I'd go for Discotheque as an E/W in that race.. 9/2 currently on PP in from 5/1 or a SFC or RFC with Amalie/Discotheque might return good money..

scojones

sjones wrote:

Fontwell 2.20 Oscar Jack
Did extremely well in France, making it's English debut today. This is a very poor race and I cannot see this being beaten at all.

Does anyone have any ketchup for my hat?

wb

fade2black wrote:

And it's priced accordingly. Like Shalapour last week...you really want to get involved at that price??

Not on its own. But I have it as a double with Young Mick

wb

Left it way too late on young mick there I reckon.

scojones

wbailey wrote:

Left it way too late on young mick there I reckon.

Agreed, but it couldn't really get a clear run. The jockey couldn't make up his mind as to whether he wanted to go in the inside or the outside. I still think Young Mick was the best horse in that race.

Repli

Maybe.. another furlong on the trip and he would have flew home.. ah well.. have Miss Highjinks for an E/W on the 2.45

fade2black

That's the danger with hold up horses. All the races in the past two months where Young Mick has come 2nd he arguably should have been the winner.

wb

And it's priced accordingly. Like Shalapour last week...you really want to get involved at that price??

I've seen a 1/7 shot lose in a 3 horse race before when I worked in the bookies, it wouldn't surprise me if he lost

I'm probrally setting myself up here, as murphys law will ensure the horse loses after I post this, But:

I can't see why alarm bells go off when a horse goes odds on. If you lay a horse you are effectively backing odds on.
When analysing a race, I try to work out my own prices before I check the real one. If I was to lay that horse, I would wan't to be laying it for 1.15 or 1.2

I backed it at 1.26 because I believe it is worth that price.

With a sensible staking plan, there is no need to have rules where you don't back odds on in my opinion. If the price is a value bet, odds on or not, I think you should do it.

Each to their own I suppose, but thats the way I look at odds on.

hiscan

i fancy peace offering as an each way bet in the 4.25 at kempton
there was an apprentice jockey riding it last time out and the horse got badly hampered

Repli

wbailey my own slant on it is I just have to bet so much for such a small gain (eg €100 to make €25 profit), I know at that price there's a very good chance he will win (which he did, congrats ) but there's still the chance of him losing !

Repli

There's money for Kingsgate Prince in the 3.55, Tony Quinn is the jockey 5-4 from 11-8

wb

Repli wrote:

wbailey my own slant on it is I just have to bet so much for such a small gain (eg €100 to make €25 profit), I know at that price there's a very good chance he will win (which he did, congrats ) but there's still the chance of him losing !

Yeah, I know what you mean. I lay a lot, so I probrally have a different outlook to odds on.

But the main thing for me is value. I know some simply wont agree that 1/4 or 1/5 is good value, but what I try to do is work out in my head how much I would lay that for. (in this case I would have took 1.2) I backed it at 1.26, which in my mind was a value bet. Similarly, If I feel that a horses price should be 3/1, and it is available at 2/1, I won't back it, even if im 'sure' it will win, as it is not value for money in my opinon.

I'd better stop here, I'm starting to sound like eddie hobbs :eek:

scojones

sjones wrote:

Kempton 4.25 Border Music
I've selected this horse many a time on this forum in the past. Super form in it's last three starts, but it has to overcome a minor shift in the weights to beat these. If it can reproduce it's form it showed in it's last three races it should win again.

And it does just that, still though, an evens favourite is nothing to shout about.

Repli

Got him at 5/4 I'm actually up today for a change woo, didn't see the race though Channel 4 are showing countdown now??

wb

Well, I just logged in and checked my balance. A pretty crappy day was had for me.
I hate this time of the year for betting, between the weather and the change-over. Roll on Summer.

Ideo

bring on the flat! ah flat racing, brings back memories of summer 2001 when i got into the races...those were the days! aidan obrrien + mick kinane, a match made in heaven!

ziggy

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