No Odds To Call

Samba

As Hector's inbox is full, i'll just go ahead and post my question here.


In short my question is(tribeca 2k starting chips 1v1 STT's)

If i get a player down to say 600 Chips or there abouts, let's say we both limp in to a pot and I flop a draw, flush or open ended straight draw.

If my opponent pushes on the flop, should I be calling every time here with a draw as if I hit it's worth $400, i.e I can end the game there and then, if I miss and he doubles up I am confident that I can still go on to win the game most of the time.

So I have no odds to call in terms of chips but in terms of Money it's worth a win if i hit

To draw or not to draw is the question

wayfarer

If your not getting the odds and the blinds aren't threatening your ability to outplay your opponent then I'd say no. If on the other hand, it's your opponent who is the better player, then it night be correct to call.

roryc

I agree. It all depends on how you rate your ability against this player. Most of the time I would call, against an equal/better player

Hitman Actual

From a maths perspective, and I stand to be corrected on this:

If we call:
Stack sizes 3400:600.
Assume your draw is 2/1 (33%)
If we lose, stack sizes = 2800:1200, so we still win 0.7(400) 66% of the time.

€EV = 0.33*400 + 0.66(0.7(400)) = +€316.8

If we fold:
€EV = .85(400) = 340

So fold is better.

RoundTower

I would treat it like a cash game - you should only call if you think you have the correct pot odds. You make the point that if you win you get $400, if you call and lose you still get $400 most of the time (say $300 on average). However if you just fold you expect to get about $350 out of it anyway.

Only thing that would make me think differently here is the value you put on your time and how many of these things you can play at once. If you can take a slightly unfavourable gamble in order to get the game over with quickly, you might be correct to take the gamble so you can start up another table.

Goodluck2me

lenny_leonard wrote:

From a maths perspective, and I stand to be corrected on this:

If we call:
Stack sizes 3400:600.
Assume your draw is 2/1 (33%)
If we lose, stack sizes = 2800:1200, so we still win 0.7(400) 66% of the time.

€EV = 0.33*400 + 0.66(0.7(400)) = +€316.8

If we fold:
€EV = .85(400) = 340

So fold is better.

any chance you could explain that formula lenny and where the figures come from.cheers.

Hitman Actual

goodluck2me wrote:

any chance you could explain that formula lenny and where the figures come from.cheers.

No problem. First of all, I'd better start by saying that I'm not the best maths guy here by a long shot, but seeing as Roundtower didn't rip shreds through my maths I'll assume they're correct.

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The fold bit first, cos it's easier. It's a 2K heads-up game, so we have 3400 chips and villain has 600 if we fold. It's generally considered that the chances of winning a tournament are proportional to chip ratios, so we have an 85% chance (3400/4000) and villain has a 15% chance (600/4000). So we now stand to get an 85% portion of €400 (the prize money):

€EV (fold) = 0.85*400 = +€340.

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Now when we call: I'm assuming that we have a 33% chance of winning with our draw, which is general enough in these cases. So when we win with our call, we gain our 33% portion of €400:

0.33*400 = €132

But the 66% of the time that we call and lose, we still win a certain amount of time, again depending on chip ratios which are now 2800:1200 (we've just doubled up the villain). So now we still win 70% of the time (2800/4000). This gives the second part of the "call" formula:

0.66*(0.7*400) = €184.8

This gives:

€EV (call) = (0.33*400) + (0.66*(0.7*400)) = 132 + 184.8 = +€316.8

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So now we compare the expected values (€EV) of fold and call, and as folding gives the higher return, this is the theoretically correct way to play the hand.

Of course, this all depends on both players being of equal skill.