Pot odds and choosing hands to play

Bananna man

The other night I had a situation that happens alot. I've been trying to find a calculator to work out the exact odds but this scenario happened a few nights ago and it's been bugging me as to whether or not I would make the same play every time...

40 Tourney final table there's 10 players. I am 2nd in Chips and holding AD,9D on the Button. There's a sizable pot pre-flop BB (player A) and Player B are in the pot with me.

Flop comes down 9S, 3D, 4D (giving me Top Pair and nut flush draw) Player A raises all in (short stack) and Player B re-raises all-in. To call will commit 70% of my chips. I considered that there was an over-pair or trips but called anyway because I "considered" pot odds were worth it.

Player A turned over JJ and Player B turned over QQ. I won the pot when the Queen of Diamonds hit the river.

Afterwards however I was lambasted on the chatroom for making the call. Was I wrong? Did I calculate pot-odds wrong? What would you do in this situation?

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

what were the chip counts?

Flush Phill

It's a good call. You had plenty of outs.

I'd call this everytime tbh

azzeretti

Flush Phill wrote:

It's a good call. You had plenty of outs.

I'd call this everytime tbh

I wouldn't EVERY time, what were the chip stacks for the other players?

Bananna man

I cant remember the axact chip counts but the BB was small stacked and when Player B re-raised i would have been left with about 70% of my chips left if i lost

ArmaniJeanss

Bananna man wrote:

To call will commit 70% of my chips. I

Bananna man wrote:

I cant remember the axact chip counts but the BB was small stacked and when Player B re-raised i would have been left with about 70% of my chips left if i lost

Its important to know which you mean here (30% committed or 70% committed). What was the pre-flop action btw?

kincsem

Assuming you had 100 chips and it cost 70 to call. In the pot are say 40 (Player A short stack) and 70 (Player = 110. You are getting 110 to 70 or 1.57 to 1.
Or another way – you invest 70 to make a pot of 180. Your investment is 70/180 or 38.9%

What are your chances of winning with Ad 9d.
Any A will give you two pair, aces and nines. I assume this wins.
Any 9 will give you trips. I assume this wins.
Any diamond give you an ace high flush. I assume this wins.

Outs are (3 x A) + (2 x 9) + (9 x diamonds) = 14 outs

There are 45 cards unseen (52 – 3 – 2 = 45). (3 on flop: 2 in your hand.)

You have two chances to hit. So roughly (2 x 14)/45 = 59.5%

You are paying 39% for a 60% chance. Easy call.

You could be against made trips or someone drawing to a small straight. Ignore that. Even better is where they are drawing to a lower flush or have top pair with a lower kicker.

Fatboydim

In that situation I think it depends on the money for places and what you want out of the tournament. There's incomplete information as you say there is a sizeable pot pre-flop. Presumably raises from the pocket pairs. In which case how much were they relative to blinds and indeed your stack. As if they raised heavily with their hands- a call with A9 is going to get you into trouble most of the time. Almost certainly your nine is beat in that situation as you have two players all in - in front of you. But you have outs against a lot of hands here and of course you're ahead of any ace. You have nine outs to the flush, plus two to the nine and three to the ace - 14 outs in total. Of course that drops if the any of the pairs were diamonds. if you want to win tournaments these are the kind of gambles you have to take. So I suspect if there was any dodgy play from you it was more likely to have been preflop.

cardshark202

I would imagine your preflop action was somewhat dubious, but on the flop I try to jam it in as quick as possible.

fuzzbox

Easy call on the flop.

Terrible call preflop.

staringelf

fuzzbox wrote:

Easy call on the flop.

Terrible call preflop.

exactly what i was thinking. preflop i'm raising on the button with it but facing big pressure from the small and big blind (who also played it terribly by the way not pushing if they were that short) i fold. post flop, i call every time. figure to have plenty of outs and you'll have a monster stack if you win which if played correctly should carry you to first place.

theslick

kincsem wrote:

Outs are (3 x A) + (2 x 9) + (9 x diamonds) = 14 outs

There are 45 cards unseen (52 – 3 – 2 = 45). (3 on flop: 2 in your hand.)

You have two chances to hit. So roughly (2 x 14)/45 = 59.5%

52 - 3 - 2 = 47 not 45

and the formula is

P = 1 - P(miss turn)xP(miss river)
= 1 - (47-14)/47 x (46-14)/46
= 51%

sprocket1

did ya go on to win??

kincsem

theslick wrote:

52 - 3 - 2 = 47 not 45

and the formula is

P = 1 - P(miss turn)xP(miss river)
= 1 - (47-14)/47 x (46-14)/46
= 51%

OK 47 not 45 .... and I know there are less cards in the deck after the turn than there were after the flop. But do you do the calculation you listed after the flop? I doubt it. It's enough to do a quick calculation and get a rough idea if it is value to call or not.

theslick

kincsem wrote:

OK 47 not 45 .... and I know there are less cards in the deck after the turn than there were after the flop. But do you do the calculation you listed after the flop? I doubt it. It's enough to do a quick calculation and get a rough idea if it is value to call or not.

No - memory - like I know a flush draw or outside straight draw are about 2-1 against.

5starpool

theslick wrote:

No - memory - like I know a flush draw or outside straight draw are about 2-1 against.

After the flop just obviously. But then again I'm just stating the obvious. Obviously.

kincsem

A good way to figure it is - with 14 outs you are 50/50 to fill so you can call any bet (assuming it is not life threatening). You can only be putting in 50% of the pot and usually much less. An example would be holding AQ hearts with two small hearts on the flop ---> giving 9 flush cards + 6 overcards

Deduct 3% for each out less than 14 - if you have 8 outs (say an open-ended straight) you are approx 50% - 3% x 6 = 32%. Open-ended and drawing to one overcard you could give yourself 8 + 3 ~ 50%-9% ~ 40%

But I like to get a feel for what the other players have. An additional consideration is the number of players. It is much better to be drawing in a three-handed pot (or more) and to be drawing to the nuts. Often heads up the other player will force the issue without a hand but with 3 or 4 players they are less adventurous.