Folding AA 3-handed...

Iago

I've taken this from another forum, and to be honest this is as clear a push as I've ever come across, however given that there is some debate going on in the other forum from players I would respect, and who believe folding is not really that bad, and that WPT magazine advocates a fold, I thought I'd post it for discussion.


My chips are in here so fast I'd rip the felt with them, anybody any different and why?

The guy sets the scene, last 3 of an stt so all have made the money. Each player is equally stacked with 10k (this seems high, esp for internet).

Hands r delt and hero picks up AA in the bb, he comments that he thinks this is his double time. Nothing 2 starnge so far. but then button makes a big bet, 3 way imo a button raise does not mean much strength but hero does make it clear it was a BIG bet. to our heros horror the sb then reraises. this puts our hero in a "pickle" Obv he has the best hand, but some1 could suckout on him and he could take 3rd instead of 2nd. he lets the time run down and folds his cards. "boy, let me tell you, it hurt."

so, other two had QQ and 99 and with no help 2 either player the QQ button won and our hero moves up the ladder.

Hero writes,

"As it happens, I went on to win the tournament after battling for about 20mins, but i was wondering what you thought of my fold? My thoughts are that it was a good call (surely he means fold?!!??), because i ended up winning the tournament."

imo, this is a strange play, but it gets, for me, a lot worse.

This is the reply from the WPT academy,


"If you had been short stacked and in desperate need of some chips, then folding the Aces would have been suicide. But as things stand, this is 1 of the rare times that folding aces almost guranteed you a profit. When the two players moved in, it was 95.9% likely that one of them would get knocked out (statistically there is only a 4.1% of a split pot), leaving you in 2nd place with a shot of 1st. Folding rockets is hard, but not always wrong."

Any opinions?

NickyOD

Without any mention of the payout structure its impossible to answer but if this is a 50%/30%/20% payout then the fold is absolutely horrible if the stacks are all equal at the start of the hand.

ianmc38

Ridiculous fold. if the money difference between 2nd and 3rd place is extremely important to the player, then its ok. otherwise its absolutely ridiculous.

Against 2 stacks of the same size, he'll win this tournament 2/3rds of the time by pushing here.

Flush Phill

I was once involved in something similar to this. We were playing cards in the local gaa club and there were three of us left. I was short stacked and right of the dealer so i paid my blind and re-raised all in. SB called my raise and re-raised the BB all in, BB called. (At this point i thought i was rightly screwed)

SB had KK

BB had AA

I had JQs

Flop came 9 10 K rainbow, giving me a run to the king, giving SB Trips and BB a pair of aces. I won after turn/river.

I'd probably have called in your guys situation, but i can understand where hes coming from.. especially if the prize money is big.

Lafortezza

Anything up to a $1000 Stt and I'd call. A higher buy-in Stt than that and I'd probably have to think.

handsfree

this is as clear as day to me. you have a huge +EV in the very worst case,both other players have PP's. in that case there are only 4 cards in the deck that can hurt you. other case your up against Ak-AJ. either way passing up such an advantage is criminal and if the money means that much to you the stakes are too high.

ollyk1

This is a clear fold. More people should fold aces preflop and the amount of times guys overplay kings here is crazy too. They are just a pair people!!












:rolleyes:

handsfree

ollyk1 wrote:

This is a clear fold. More people should fold aces preflop and the amount of times guys overplay kings here is crazy too. They are just a pair people!!

lol

califano

'a run'!
heard that one a few times in the Anglers yesterday. Please:rolleyes:

Norwich Fan Rob

lol................what do u want people to do b4 u when u have AA in the BB...........fold?

i call here no matter what reads, stacks i have.

but in this case the button could have anything, and u will likely get it HU anyway.

5starpool

I'm sure Gholi will appear and be the first to defend folding AA, which there is a certain twisted logic for doing, but there is no way that I would do it.

ianmc38

Flush Phill wrote:

Flop came 9 10 K rainbow, giving me a run

Lol

nikorami

Folding AA in this situation(and almost any other) makes a person a gobsh^$. What a joke....If you want to play poker or any other sport like a scared little girl then go for it. Personally, I believe that the best poker players are winners and will always play this. Now from a money standpoint if the difference in money was huge(and I mean huge)..for example like at ladbrokes where only the top 2 get Pokermillion seats and 3rd gets money, then maybe, because that assures you of a seat and first and second are the same, so just muck because you are getting the same result. But if it were only one seat..I shove em in and consider those that do not as weak of conviction. Hope I didnt offend anyones sensibilities.

RoundTower

NickyOD wrote:

Without any mention of the payout structure its impossible to answer but if this is a 50%/30%/20% payout then the fold is absolutely horrible if the stacks are all equal at the start of the hand.

I don't think this is correct. Unless you are considering a tournament where second place gets MORE than first place you should still call according to my estimate.

If the top two get the exact same prize money you have a borderline call. If first gets even 10% more than second it is a very clear call. Take a note that the "players you would respect" are most likely idiots or that they are warming up for April fool's day.

RoundTower

Iago wrote:

to our heros horror the sb then reraises. this puts our hero in a "pickle" Obv he has the best hand, but some1 could suckout on him and he could take 3rd instead of 2nd.

If the "players you respect" are talking like this I change my mind, they are definitely idiots.

a-k-47

folding AA 3 handed? ffs i dont care what situation im in , im calling. what a pu55y...what kind of respect would the greats great for that move, none.

Gholimoli

this is a donkey fold.
button raises,SB reraises, now BB thinks well i have AA and i dont wanna play it 3 handed and i will be deffo go second at least.what rubish.
first of all there is nothing to say button will call the SB reraise so there is nothing certain about BB moving up a place for sure.
also if his point is "ah i dont wanna play AA 3 way bla bla bla" his over the top all in would more than likely make one of them fold so he would end up playing the hand HU more often than not.
i mean he says it himself "a raise from button dosent mean much" and if thats what you believe then why not make him fold by going all in.
then only way this would have some merit was maybe if the prise structure was 50/40/10 or something out of the ordinary like that .simply moving up to second place does not justify this at all.

Iago

RoundTower wrote:

If the "players you respect" are talking like this I change my mind, they are definitely idiots.

that was a paraphrased quot from the mag, not from one of the players.


Nobody directly advocated a fold here, but the general consensus was that it depends on the payout structure and what you stand to benefit from folding. There was also a point raised as to whether the "everybody had 10K" comment meant you had slightly more or slightly less than either player. The train of thought followed that in the 10-15 seconds you have to make a decision in an online tournament you may well decide that as you're guaranteed 2nd folding is the right move with any two cards, depending on the prize structure etc. Of course an STT is completely different to a MTT situation.

Again, nobody advocated folding in this position although all agreed that sometimes (very rarely) it is right to fold AA.

fuzzbox

People should stop contriving stupid scenarios where it is "right" to fold AA preflop in a tourney.

Its an awfully pointless exercise.

Goodluck2me

folding aces here i think is ridiculous. if your afraid of being sucked out but your happy with second, then call as the chances of BOTH hands beating you are so small you are getting well over the odds to rasie nevermind call.... your looking for action with your aces so why be afraid of it when you get it. would you prefer if they folded around to you?

Drakar

RoundTower wrote:

I don't think this is correct. Unless you are considering a tournament where second place gets MORE than first place you should still call according to my estimate.

If the top two get the exact same prize money you have a borderline call. If first gets even 10% more than second it is a very clear call. Take a note that the "players you would respect" are most likely idiots or that they are warming up for April fool's day.

I don't think this is correct (but do agree with the above in that this is a pointless exercise :P). Lets imagine this is a 6 seater STT where the first two get a seat in the 2007 WSOP and 3rd gets nothing. In that (unlikely) scenario it's a very clear fold (not a borderline call). Similarly, if first gets 55% and second gets 45%, by folding you have a 95% chance of getting at least 45% of the prizepool, by calling you might have a ~70% chance of getting 55% of the prizepool. Again in this unusual scenario it's a fold. Obviously there's a point at which it's worth it, but with only two prizes at least, 10% isn't it.

<edit> Oh, and obviously in most normal situations calling is easy here.

Ste05

lafortezza wrote:

Anything up to a $1000 Stt and I'd call. A higher buy-in Stt than that and I'd probably have to think.

The stakes should make no difference. Unless this is your entire BR and you actually would prefer to be guaranteed second place. Although if that's the case then you shouldn't be playing Poker. The only way the stakes could make a difference would be that the chances of the other player having AA might be slightly higher, (so negligible to make it irrelevant)

But maybe my sarcasmometer is slightly off today... :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

RoundTower

Drakar wrote:

Similarly, if first gets 55% and second gets 45%, by folding you have a 95% chance of getting at least 45% of the prizepool, by calling you might have a ~70% chance of getting 55% of the prizepool. Again in this unusual scenario it's a fold.

Hmm this was the situation I imagined earlier where I thought it would be a call. Perhaps my maths is wrong.

So suppose first pays $55 and second $45. To simplify everything suppose the other two players have moved all in already and you have a 2/3 chance of winning if you call (about right if they both have distinct pairs).

If you fold one of them will almost always get knocked out and you will be left heads up with a 2:1 chip disadvantage. Your expectation here is between $45 and $55, closer to $45. Call it $48.

If you call you will lose 1/3 of the time and split second place for $22.50. You will win 2/3 of the time for $55. So your expectation is 1/3 of $22.50 plus 2/3 of $55, which is $44. Which does in fact make it a marginal fold.

If you make it so that you win 70% of the time, which is correct if they both have say JJ or better or AK, or if you account for the 5% chance that they split the pot when you fold -- then it becomes a call. But it looks like it is still a fold when first prize and second prize are exactly equal.

I know these are hypothetical situations that never come up, but didn't someone post a real STT hand here where it was right to fold AA?