AQ - when "floats" go bad

fuzzbox

PP 6-max 3/6
Stacks 600

Preflop
Villain opens UTG for 22, Hero calls on the button with AdQs, two to the flop

Flop (50)
9d 8d 3s
Villain bets 40, hero calls (this is a good spot to "float").

Turn (130)
Ah
check, and I change my plan and just check

River (130)
Qc
Villain bets 100, hero minraises (200), villain thinks for a while, and pushes, Hero ...?

I f.cked this up pretty good right !!

Ho ho ho - Green Giant.

Lafortezza

Reads on Villain? Is he the type to raise 88/99/JTs UTG?
I'd call this.

padraig_f

His play seems consistent with a big hand, one that's 2-pair or better. The river seems a terrible spot to bluff when he hasn't much invested, and top pair would just call.

JT seems kind of unlikely as I'd expect him to continue his semi-bluff on the turn with that, especially when a good bluffing card has come out.

So I think most of the time he's playing a set or 2-pair. The problem is I'm not sure there's much to distinguish between these two in the betting action. They both could be played pretty much the same, 2-pair is combinatorially more likely but probably pushes less often on the river.

The pot odds say you need to be ahead roughly 30% of the time on the river to call. I think it's close but my gut is telling me to fold.

cardshark202

Out of the various hands that beat you, only two stick out in my mind, QQ and JT. I villian is tight UTG then JT can be ruled out. If so, it only leaves QQ, which is statistically very unlikely so I call believing he has TT-KK and is trying to push you off an ace or a weak re-steal (though his hand does have some showdown value if this is the case).

I can't believe villian would check the turn with 88 or 99 on that sort of board.

RoundTower

I think I fold. He almost certainly isn't bluffing or overplaying one pair. Plenty of players are cautious enough not to put in the third bet here without the nuts here, particularly when your play is consistent with JT.

I was going to say I thought you played the hand well, but now I don't know.

Goodluck2me

whats a float?

valor

calling a continuation bet on the flop with air with the intention of taking the pot away on the turn with a lead/raise

Goodluck2me

cheers... im glad to hear theres a name for it...

MrPillowTalk

Tough spot.

I think its a bad raise on the river, but once hes moved in I am probably going to call and pray he has AK.

A fold is fine too but given the pot odds and the fact it will probably be good for your table image to have everyone thinking you minraise a medium strength hand then I call.

Hectorjelly

The only reason I can see to min raise the river is that you can get away from a three bet all in. If I was the villain and you were unknown I thought was tight I would fold AK to the min reraise because you cant be bluffing, but I would definitely consider calling a real raise because of the missed flush draw.

There are plenty of 3-6 players that I would call instantly here, but against an unknown I think this is a pretty standard fold. I cant see how he can be bluffing, and no sane player is 3 betting a hand all in that you beat there.

As an aside I think you should stick to party

fuzzbox

Results:
I passed. He had to have a better hand than me here. As round tower said, my hand looks a LOT like JT to him, so it should be hard for him to come OTT with a lesser hand.

Thanks for the feedback guys.

Btw - HJ - PP = Party. PPP = Paddy Power.

Why should I stick to party? ... I suck, you would eat me up.