Is poker becoming less profitable?

Drakar

Title probably says it all, but .... If we look at a situation say a few years ago, and compare it to now. Back then although the 'correct' theory (whatever that is) was largely similar to current thinking, there were probably alot more players who were ignorant of basic poker theory, had no knowledge of odds etc, because of the inaccessibility of the information (The Theory of Poker isn't the easiest book to read for new players for example, now players have access to websites, poker programs and more basic books).

I'd think now that within a few months of playing, most interested players would at least have information available to them on managing bankroll, minimising tilt, knowledge of basic starting hands, relative strengths of hands and basic strategy. Although there is still quite a gap between a good player and a bad one, would it be reasonable to assume that the majority of players is tending towards medium skill (if we imagine a Bell curve), whereas previously there was a large number in the low skill bracket. If everyone plays the same "correct" strategy, then everyone is a long term loser as the house takes it's 10% cut in tournaments and rake in cash games. I know we're far from this point, as there will always be newer players, and always some players who are better than others regardless of the proliferation of poker knowledge, but if we are saying that the "average" (median) poker player has increased in skill, has this not now reduced the expected edge a good player may percieve he has over a table of randomly skilled players?

Also, although I don't have empirical evidence for this, there seem to be alot more grinders relative to fishy types on tables as Poker Professional is becoming a more common job title, but this probably depends on where one plays. It would be interesting to see how it progresses I guess as the years go on...

ianmc38

There are still more than enough naive donkeys out there to make it very profitable.

Scotty #

I'm only playing a few months but I'd imagine for anyone who was winning before the "boom" it has become far more profitable than less profitable.

Ruhan

Do you want to play poker for profit only, or do you enjoy it too?

I'm a fairly new player, but I mainly play for enjoyment of the game, and am learning new stuff all the time. If I just played it for profit, I think I'd lose interest fairly quick. I have no illusions of becoming a professional poker player.

I've bought a few books because I like the theory of poker, and what's going on behind the game, the cards, and like learning the different things associated with the game.

5starpool

Ruhan wrote:

Do you want to play poker for profit only, or do you enjoy it too?

I'm a fairly new player, but I mainly play for enjoyment of the game, and am learning new stuff all the time. If I just played it for profit, I think I'd lose interest fairly quick. I have no illusions of becoming a professional poker player.

I've bought a few books because I like the theory of poker, and what's going on behind the game, the cards, and like learning the different things associated with the game.

You shouldn't play it if you don't enjoy it, but you can't afford to play it unless it is profitable. Enjoyment is desirable, and I think most posters here do for the large part enjoy it, but unless you make a profit then you cannot be any more than a very casual player, and I believe a large percentage of the posters here play 20+ a week (and some many more hours).

Hectorjelly

Despite losing 2k in about 20mins last week this has been my most profitable month ever - and its only 1/2 gone!

Drakar

Hectorjelly wrote:

Despite losing 2k in about 20mins last week this has been my most profitable month ever - and its only 1/2 gone!

Sssh, you're at the 500/1000 level that's full of drunk people coming home from the pub :P

azzeretti

Drakar wrote:

Title probably says it all, but .... If we look at a situation say a few years ago, and compare it to now. Back then although the 'correct' theory (whatever that is) was largely similar to current thinking, there were probably alot more players who were ignorant of basic poker theory, had no knowledge of odds etc, because of the inaccessibility of the information (The Theory of Poker isn't the easiest book to read for new players for example, now players have access to websites, poker programs and more basic books).

I'd think now that within a few months of playing, most interested players would at least have information available to them on managing bankroll, minimising tilt, knowledge of basic starting hands, relative strengths of hands and basic strategy. Although there is still quite a gap between a good player and a bad one, would it be reasonable to assume that the majority of players is tending towards medium skill (if we imagine a Bell curve), whereas previously there was a large number in the low skill bracket. If everyone plays the same "correct" strategy, then everyone is a long term loser as the house takes it's 10% cut in tournaments and rake in cash games. I know we're far from this point, as there will always be newer players, and always some players who are better than others regardless of the proliferation of poker knowledge, but if we are saying that the "average" (median) poker player has increased in skill, has this not now reduced the expected edge a good player may percieve he has over a table of randomly skilled players?

Also, although I don't have empirical evidence for this, there seem to be alot more grinders relative to fishy types on tables as Poker Professional is becoming a more common job title, but this probably depends on where one plays. It would be interesting to see how it progresses I guess as the years go on...

Sure, its all about luck anyway.

Norwich Fan Rob

some people are playing years, and they still havent got a clue.
yes, more are informed now a days perhaps, but there are enough casual / uneducated / bad players out there for us all to do fine.

hotspur

I have no doubt whatever that the general standard of mid stakes online cash games are harder now per level than 2 years ago.

FastMachine

I don't think poker's become less profitable. Most players do get better over time but I think they eventually reach a certain level that they don't progress beyond. Even guys who want to keep improving will be handicapped by their natural ability.
It always helps to have a total fish at your table but if you're a better player than the others (be they decent or good) you'll always make money in the long run.

Lafortezza

The good players generally graduate up to higher stakes leaving the lower levels to the bad/losing/new players.

Hence the reason I 28-table the $25 tables.

gerire

lafortezza wrote:

Hence the reason I 28-table the $25 tables.

U cutting down lately?

Running Bing

FastMachine wrote:

I don't think poker's become less profitable. Most players do get better over time but I think they eventually reach a certain level that they don't progress beyond. Even guys who want to keep improving will be handicapped by their natural ability

.

imo players wont reach this level until they hit high stakes table. At the lower limits(even mid limits) I really dont believe a huge amount of natural ability is required, of course it will help but its all about just playing solid sound abc poker at low levels. If a player genuinely wants to improve and works at it he will most likely beat lowlimit games even if he doesnt have much natural ability.

And without a shadow of a doubt the standards are getting better and theres much less loose money around(But im sure its still a lot better than before the poker boom, I just think the time when everyone wanted to play and nobody had a clue is gone).

Marq

Laugh Out Loud.

FastMachine

Babybing wrote:

imo players wont reach this level until they hit high stakes table. At the lower limits(even mid limits) I really dont believe a huge amount of natural ability is required, of course it will help but its all about just playing solid sound abc poker at low levels. If a player genuinely wants to improve and works at it he will most likely beat lowlimit games even if he doesnt have much natural ability.

Yes, the lower limits can be conclusively beaten playing solid tight abc poker but I think sometimes people underestimate how difficult it can be to play that way. The trick is to figure out the system and just grind it out. Some guys can't figure it out though and then there are others who do but don't realise their potential due to other weakness such as tilt, bluffing too much etc..... I think there's alot of natural ability needed to beat the lower stakes.

I'd see a poker player's natural ability as being more than just knowing when to bet and when to fold - temperment, maths, experience, theory, balls of steel, reading an opponent, tilt prevention, bankroll management, patience - are all areas that you need to have down if you want to be a winner.
The higher up you go, the ones that are needed more are experience and reading an opponent.

And without a shadow of a doubt the standards are getting better and theres much less loose money around(But im sure its still a lot better than before the poker boom, I just think the time when everyone wanted to play and nobody had a clue is gone).

There's still lots of guys giving it away even on the higher stakes. I had a guy today who called off half his stack against me twice when I reraised with AK and AA. Although he beat me both times, flopped two pair with K2 against AA and hit a 5 on the flop with 105s against my AK. Then there was a guy at 10/20 calling off even more preflop with hands like K9, 66, etc.... who also cleaned me out twice before I took it all back with interest.
These are the pure fish/maniacs, but there are lots of basically average and bad players on 5/10 and 10/20. I don't what it was like 2 or 3 years ago as I've been playing a year but it if was any more profitable back then it must have been a pure goldmine.

Scotty #

Babybing wrote:

And without a shadow of a doubt the standards are getting better and theres much less loose money around

I disagree. There's more bad players, by which I mean below average, and there's more loose money in poker now than there's ever been before. Think about it.... How many new players start every day? There all loose money. Yes some of them will become good players but its a small percentage IMO. The bad players will leave the game or continue to lose money but in the mean time thousands of new(bad) players have started. If you take a particular stakes bracket, say $10 STT or .5/$1 cash, and look at the standard now compared with 10 years ago do you really see an improvement? The good may have gotten better but the bad, and there's a lot more of them these days, are terrible.

There will always be more bad players than good like in all sport/competition.

Now possibly your talking about high stakes poker where the new players (at that level) are not so much below average as the new/bad players in low stakes but there will still be more bad than good players.

I don't have any stats to back up my argument but the ratio of good players to bad players had to have increased dramatically since the poker boom IMO. Therefore if you were a profitable player a few years ago when there was not that many people to take money from, then now you must be more profitable , or as profitable at least, now that there are millions more and of an even lower standard .

Drakar

What I was actually referring to, was that of course there are a shed load of new people playing poker, and it's not unexpected that the standard that they play at currently is less than those who have been playing for a while. However, I was suggesting that the bulge of standard on a bell curve is moving towards an improved level of play. So yes, there are more new people than there were before, but there are also way more 'semi-experienced' players than before. So instead of online poker rooms having 3 tables of 1/2 each of which has like 5 fishies, now there are like 20 tables of 1/2 with perhaps 2 fishies on each (statistics made up for your pleasure and enjoyment).

Running Bing

Just to put this into perspective im only playing about a year and a half. I believe I came in just at the peak of the poker boom and for a while the standards were crazy. Im not saying for a second that theres not a lot of donkeys out there anymore im just saying since I began i have noticed the standard getting gradually better.

Scotty #

Babybing wrote:

Just to put this into perspective im only playing about a year and a half. I believe I came in just at the peak of the poker boom .....

Poker hasn't even nearly peaked. Just look at any sites "players online now" compared to 6 months ago or go to live event and see how many "first timers" are there.

Drakar

I thought those were networked bots :P