Hand from E-WSOP Vienna.

NickyOD

Blinds 50-100. My table image should be fairly tight at this point. I'm probaly one of the more active players at the tablle but I hanve't shown any bluffs, made any bad calls or been involved in any big pots.

An EP overly tight player limps in and I make it 350 one from the cutoff with AT of spades. Only the BB calls me. I don't know what his range is here but its probably quite wide. HJe has been very active. He is a good player but is probaly seeing too many flops.

The flop comes down 3-4-7 with 2 spades. He checks and I bet 500. He calls. The turn is a red 9 and he checks. I take a free card. The river is the Ten of hearts and he checks again.

Now a lot of the time I check here but I felt that if he has a hand better than TPTK he is betting this river card, so I decide to value bet 500 even though I really have no idea what he called the flop bet with. He immeditely raises to 2500. I started the hand with 7.5K in chips. He started the hand with about 15K.

Call or fold?

Gholimoli

i couldnt let this go Nicky to be honest with you.
i would have checked the river behind to be honest but would call his raise .
what could he have that would justify a big check raise like that on the river.
i would call this unless i was playing Johny Chan knowing he can double check a made str to the river.

Lafortezza

You lose to T7 or 97s or something. He might be trying to get you off a missed flush draw but without a decent hand on the river he'd be more likely to call. I think he missed his check raise on the turn, and wanted you to bet a weaker hand on the river so checked again.

AmarilloFats

Fair play for making this thin value bet...I lose far to much value by not betting these rivers. I prefer a bet of 1000 on river....As played I call.

Norwich Fan Rob

he has u on a flush draw, and wants to give u the chance to bluff at the river, and u are beat imo.

Ollieboy

this is a horrible situation, but I think I would have still bet the river and tried to extract more money out of him, I cant really imagine that he has a big pair, as he would have raised you earlier with the flush draw on the board, so he's either hit the 10 and thinks he's ahead, or he's trying to take the pot of you. If he want to take the pot of you I think he would have bet out on the river instead of the check raise move.

I think he had K10 and thinks he's ahead. You cant really laydown top pair top kicker in this sitation.

He could be one of these players that likes to defend his blinds and hit 2 pair on the flop with the flush draw, so decided to let you bet...

cardshark202

Ollieboy wrote:

this is a horrible situation, but I think I would have still bet the river and tried to extract more money out of him, I cant really imagine that he has a big pair, as he would have raised you earlier with the flush draw on the board, so he's either hit the 10 and thinks he's ahead, or he's trying to take the pot of you. If he want to take the pot of you I think he would have bet out on the river instead of the check raise move.

I think he had K10 and thinks he's ahead. You cant really laydown top pair top kicker in this sitation.

He could be one of these players that likes to defend his blinds and hit 2 pair on the flop with the flush draw, so decided to let you bet...

K10? So he's calling on the flop with what exactly? I would be shocked if he had bare top pair here. In fact its more likely that he may have had a missed flush draw too. Its either that or a hand that has you beat imo.

fuzzbox

How can he call the flop with KT, and yet not bet the turn?

mewso

A set played at snails pace? Alot of players these days slow play to the point of overkill. Just a wild guess. So I say fold.

fuzzbox

It seems like his range is either big hand/air. He wont have a medium hand here very often (as that would just call).

Since your hand looks very much like either missed overs/missed flush draw, then a check/raise has a good chance to succeed. But if he wanted to bluff at the pot - he should just lead the river - so since he check/raised - he really should have a strong hand.

If he put you on the missed overs/fd, then he has to check the river to try to let you bet it, as you wont call with nothing, but once you bet it, then he can hope you have a hand with which to call.

Looks like a big hand more than air, because surely air just leads out on a bluff?

99 perchance?
77 maybe?

Tough spot.

hotspur

Yep he obviously isn't scared that you might have hit the 10, I'd say the majority of the time he has you well beaten (set seems reasonable, maybe a stubborn 56) and it's certainly big hand or air as Fuzz puts it. This is a Sklansky maths moment, you're getting 2.35 times the $2k to call, so it needs to be a bluff as little as 30% of the time for it to be a call, I reckon it is a bluff more than 30% (although I guess purely from the hand about 35% of the time) of the time so I call.

ollyk1

Lets look at this from the villains point of view. Nicky has continuation bet the flop and then slowed down and checked the turn. Then Nicky bets the highish scare card on the river making it look like a "value" bet.

I reckon the villian doesn't have much here at least 50% of the time and decides he can reraise Nicky out of it so on balance I call.

The alternative is the villian has AT+ and is beating us. If I got lucky on the river with AT or two paired with the ten on the river I would check raise. I don't think he checks an already made two pair or set from the the flop or turn on the turn and river. So basically I expect to see a bluff here 50% of the time and a hand with a T the rest of the time but on balance I call.

I'm looking forward to hearing how this ended

Ollieboy

cardshark202 wrote:

K10? So he's calling on the flop with what exactly? I would be shocked if he had bare top pair here. In fact its more likely that he may have had a missed flush draw too. Its either that or a hand that has you beat imo.

By Nicky checking the turn, meant that he had nothing and with the big raise he buts nicky on Ak etc, so wo when the flop is all muck he just takes the free card, the call on the river is the only bit that throws you, otherwise if he had trips, would he have not bet the river, hoping Nicky would defend the pot.

He hit the 10 and was hoping that Nicky would try one more bluff and than come over the top of him.

Ollieboy

ollyk1 wrote:

Lets look at this from the villains point of view. Nicky has continuation bet the flop and then slowed down and checked the turn. Then Nicky bets the highish scare card on the river making it look like a "value" bet.

I reckon the villian doesn't have much here at least 50% of the time and decides he can reraise Nicky out of it so on balance I call.

The alternative is the villian has AT+ and is beating us. If I got lucky on the river with AT or two paired with the ten on the river I would check raise. I don't think he checks an already made two pair or set from the the flop or turn on the turn and river. So basically I expect to see a bluff here 50% of the time and a hand with a T the rest of the time but on balance I call.

I'm looking forward to hearing how this ended

totally aggree Ollie

cardshark202

Ollieboy wrote:

By Nicky checking the turn, meant that he had nothing and with the big raise he buts nicky on Ak etc, so wo when the flop is all muck he just takes the free card, the call on the river is the only bit that throws you, otherwise if he had trips, would he have not bet the river, hoping Nicky would defend the pot.

He hit the 10 and was hoping that Nicky would try one more bluff and than come over the top of him.

So villain called the flop with what exactly? Who calls on the flop with two overcards and no flush draw? Villian is not coming over the top of nicky with just a pair of tens. Its either air or a big hand. If it is air I would suggest that villian had two overs and a flush draw or some sort of busted straight draw maybe (although the latter seems quite unlikely).

RoundTower

I really don't know what hand he can have here. Whatever hand he has this is an extraordinary line to take. If I had to guess, 68 of spades or 99 that was hoping to check raise the turn. The only other possibility is a missed draw that was giving up on the pot, but reads your bet for weakness.

I was going to fold originally, but now I think I'd call getting 2.4 to 1, partly out of curiosity. Around now I'd hate having bet the river.

Ollieboy

cardshark202 wrote:

So villain called the flop with what exactly? Who calls on the flop with two overcards and no flush draw? Villian is not coming over the top of nicky with just a pair of tens. Its either air or a big hand. If it is air I would suggest that villian had two overs and a flush draw or some sort of busted straight draw maybe (although the latter seems quite unlikely).

of course he would come over the top of Nicky with a pair of 10's, Nicky more or less told him that he had nothing on the turn! So at this stage 10's are good.

He felt Nicky was at it and he could out play him on the river, or maybe he had 10 10, but I doubt this.....

I dont think he had a flush draw or a straight draw, because he would have bet this to take the pot earlier at this level of game and he show no strenght until the river.... He knew if he bet a pair of 10's Nicky would fold, so checking and letting Nicky try to steal it would be the exact play if you hit the river. If he had trips, he would have move on the turn or river, but more than likely the turn with a flush draw on the board and Nicky betting it.

The more I think about this, the more I'm sure your ahead Nicky...

The only other thing could be a bluff, but it would have been a fairly bad bluf as I would have tried to take it on the turn...

ocallagh

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

he has u on a flush draw, and wants to give u the chance to bluff at the river, and u are beat imo.

I haven't ready the rest of this post yet - but I really like that style of thought!

or, if he is really good, he has u on a missed flush draw and has allowed you to fire off one last bluff on the river just so he can come back over the top with the re-bluff to gain a few extra chips...

OR

He spotted you hesitating while you considered value betting. He took this to be a sign of weakness and he has nothing.


50/50 IMO which makes it a call.

cardshark202

Ollieboy wrote:

of course he would come over the top of Nicky with a pair of 10's, Nicky more or less told him that he had nothing on the turn! So at this stage 10's are good.

He felt Nicky was at it and he could out play him on the river, or maybe he had 10 10, but I doubt this.....

I dont think he had a flush draw or a straight draw, because he would have bet this to take the pot earlier at this level of game and he show no strenght until the river.... He knew if he bet a pair of 10's Nicky would fold, so checking and letting Nicky try to steal it would be the exact play if you hit the river. If he had trips, he would have move on the turn or river, but more than likely the turn with a flush draw on the board and Nicky betting it.

The more I think about this, the more I'm sure your ahead Nicky...

The only other thing could be a bluff, but it would have been a fairly bad bluf as I would have tried to take it on the turn...

So he called on the flop with KT, QT, JT AT? Just two overcards. Putting on a pair of tens with a worse kicker is just ridiculous. He is more likely to have two pair or a busted draw.

I think its probably just about a call, but a crying one at that.

Ste05

I think I'd call here too. I think your check on the turn pretty much told him you were on either over cards or a flush draw. If you had a made hand on the turn, surely you'd have bet it. This 10 doesn't look like any sort of a scare card to him. I'd say by the turn check, he has discounted you holding a pocket pair.

It is a very odd line the villian took on the hand. What kind of hands check call this flop, checks the turn and then check raise's the river. Missed draws, bluffs and very dangerously played trips or 56 (possibly of spades - too tight to really count to often). I'd call expecting to be behind less than 40% of the time.

Even if you call and lose you still have over 45BB's which is still playable...

RoundTower

ocallagh wrote:

He spotted you hesitating while you considered value betting. He took this to be a sign of weakness and he has nothing.

I think this is quite likely if he is in fact bluffing.

fuzzbox

Ollieboy wrote:

By Nicky checking the turn, meant that he had nothing and with the big raise he buts nicky on Ak etc, so wo when the flop is all muck he just takes the free card, the call on the river is the only bit that throws you, otherwise if he had trips, would he have not bet the river, hoping Nicky would defend the pot.

He hit the 10 and was hoping that Nicky would try one more bluff and than come over the top of him.

The check part is good if he hit a 10, but the raise part is bad.
If Nicky is bluffing, then Nicky cannot call a raise, so it is bad to raise if he has a medium hand.

So he should have better than one-pair, or nothing more than any other hand.

But if he wanted to bluff, he could just lead at the river ... why check-raise???

NickyOD

fuzzbox wrote:

The check part is good if he hit a 10, but the raise part is bad.
If Nicky is bluffing, then Nicky cannot call a raise, so it is bad to raise if he has a medium hand.

So he should have better than one-pair, or nothing more than any other hand.

But if he wanted to bluff, he could just lead at the river ... why check-raise???

This was basically my thinking also. Why check raise, and why check raise for so much? Why not just call if he has a piece of the board here. I had to think about this one for a long time and eventually called. He tapped the table and mucked his hand. I never found out what he had. I'm assuming he tried to pull a delayed bluff with no hand hoping to check raise the turn. He should really have folded the river. My bet is so small that it can't possibly be a steal. I think he was annoyed that his plan to check raise the turn failed then took the oportunity on the river without thinking it through. I thought it was interesting that a value bet that a lot of players wouldn't make in my position managed to induce a huge bluff whcih got snapped off.

Hectorjelly

I hate the bet on the river unless you were trying to induce a raise, its a good spot to value bet, but your bet is far too small. Reopening the betting has a price itself. As you mentioned you cant be bluffing because its so small, so you are better off betting 2k and making it look like you have AK and dont want a call.

NickyOD

Hectorjelly wrote:

I hate the bet on the river unless you were trying to induce a raise, its a good spot to value bet, but your bet is far too small. Reopening the betting has a price itself. As you mentioned you cant be bluffing because its so small, so you are better off betting 2k and making it look like you have AK and dont want a call.

I don't reallly like a check behind if I'm pretty sure my hand is good but I think betting 2K is pointless really. The reason I bet so small is because I thought he may have an AX hand which caiught one of the smaller pairs and would look me up. If I bet 2K he won't call and it is much less liekly to induce a bluff than a bet of 500 as he will have to commit so much more chips to the pot. If I bet more I think he folds almost all of the time.