10/20 sick hand

MrPillowTalk

Just playing 10/20 on tribeca when this hand occured, dont really know either player but I just caught jaffacake69 bluffing his whole stack for a 4k pot when he had no pair q high, this is either an absolutely inspired call or is terrible, cant decide which.

ezmoneysys has about 2k utg + 1 and bets 80
jaffacake69 raises to 240 in mp (i think dont have hand history so off memory)
folded back around to ezmoney who calls.

Flop comes 7h 4d 7d

ezmoney bets 300
jaffacake moves all in for about 950 on top
ezmoney calls quickly

ezmoney has AcKc ??
jaffacake has QdJd

no queen jack or diamond and ezmoney takes down a big pot with ace high!

I dont know either player like I said I had just picked up a bluff off jaffa so he was pretty much on tilt, but even so there has to be a better spot to call off a grand than with ace high no draw, but when I think about it and the way it played I think he could have just nailed his read?

Opinions?

Daithio

seems like a great read to me. Unless the other guy has a pair he's a monster favourite, and even if he does have a pair (which is not very often) he's not that much of a dog. There's no way he has a 7 anyway, and it does look like a flush draw bet.

fuzzbox

When some1 has 15 outs twice against you, you are not only not a monster favourite, but you are a small underdog.

Moreover - if he has a pair, then you really are that much of a dog.

nikorami

The AK caller just has too much money, thats it. The guy has 2 overcards and the flush draw. FFS why would you call? Called as an underdog to the hand. No offense intended to anyone, but that is just stupidity at its finest. Sure he made a little money, but play like that is why some folks are making a living playing the game.

Gholimoli

looks like a stupid call to me.
i dont think it was a great read.
i mean what does ez put jaffa on?
the only he beats here is AQ/AJ or a dominating A.what are the chances of some one going all in for 1K with AJ on that flop?

Bozzer

Note if ez puts jaffa on following range

60% 99-AA
30% Flush draw
10% Air

then the call is correct

AmarilloFats

Bozzer wrote:

Note if ez puts jaffa on following range

60% 99-AA
30% Flush draw
10% Air

then the call is correct

Wow, Cool, u use pokerstove bozzer???

fuzzbox

Bozzer wrote:

Note if ez puts jaffa on following range

60% 99-AA
30% Flush draw
10% Air

then the call is correct

And if you add even 5% 7 ... what happens?

Samba

I think this is awful play and if you take the play out of the hand, the hand often has a different result.

In my experience, bad players will often call these all in bets on these types of flops.

If you are going to bluff, do it properly, this is a terrible bluff. Flat call the flope and set up the bluff.

When you flat call, AK will now be very worried, now start firing on the turn.

fuzzbox

You cant flat call with those stacks in order to take it away on the turn.

MrPillowTalk

Daithio wrote:

seems like a great read to me. Unless the other guy has a pair he's a monster favourite, and even if he does have a pair (which is not very often) he's not that much of a dog. There's no way he has a 7 anyway, and it does look like a flush draw bet.

I think it was a great read myself my only problem with it is that if I had any pp and was sitting where jaffa was I would have played it exactly the same way he did, if you have a pp that and are bet into on that flop you either have to push or drop, that in mind I like the call if he took that into account and just decided jaffa was on tilt but it is very borderline.

like i said still dont know if its inspired or idiotic

fuzzbox

If he pushed preflop then its a great read (and semi-bluff).
If he calls and bets the flop and calls an all-in ... then its pants.

MrPillowTalk

fuzzbox wrote:

You cant flat call with those stacks in order to take it away on the turn.

This is true, if jaffa flat calls on the flop there is no way ez is going to just give up the ghost on it on the turn, A flat call with a 2 flush board screams weak as any half decent hand (pp trips etc) wants to raise the flop bet to avoid givig free cards to flush chasers or overcards.

I agree with you fuzz about the pre flop play, against this type of player the push is far better, however once he gets to a flop I dont hate his play, Id just like to know why he called it, i.e. because he figured it or because he was a donkey who wouldnt let AK drop.

Samba

Good point Fuzz, my problem is the all in , it stinks of a bluff!

You would need deeper stacks to flat call.

This is a move I see all too often on the HU STT's

fuzzbox

Samba wrote:

Good point Fuzz, my problem is the all in , it stinks of a bluff!

You would need deeper stacks to flat call.

This is a move I see all too often on the HU STT's

How does it stink of bluff ? He reraised preflop, and when villain bet the flop he moved in for a total of 1k.

Doesnt look like a bluff to me.

Bozzer

fuzzbox wrote:

And if you add even 5% 7 ... what happens?

It becomes a fold just. But 5% 7 is too high...it would be more like 3%, which gives a call. Plus my overpair:flush draw ratio might be too large which would make it a clearer call.
Note I'm not defending ez's line, just the final call.

As to the comment that i used pokerstove i can calculate my equity pretty accurately in my head.

Bozzer

Bozzer wrote:

Originally Posted by Bozzer
Note if ez puts jaffa on following range

60% 99-AA
30% Flush draw
10% Air

then the call is correct

AmarilloFats wrote:

Wow, Cool, u use pokerstove bozzer???

I may be drunk but I can still do this math easily

We need 950/3010 equity = 9.5/30 = 3.2/10 = little under 32% equity

30% we’re a little under 50% = 14%

10% we’re a little over (1-6 outs twice) = 7.7%

60% of time we’re a little better than 2/3(1-6 outs twice) = 11%

Equity = > 32%

Sorry if you can’t do this in your head Fats but keep trying mate!!!

RoundTower

Samba wrote:

I think this is awful play and if you take the play out of the hand, the hand often has a different result.

Originally I thought you meant the AK played it horribly. I really don't understand how you can think the QJ played it badly (apart from preflop). He has an excellent draw and will force a lot of better hands to fold.

Norwich Fan Rob

seen this AK guy before, hes a complete and utter muppet