Stealing blinds

breadmonkey

I have been thinking about this and it confuses me. For the sake of this discussion, let's just say it's late in an STT, it's folded around to you in the BB. You have been playing tight early on but have been gradually loosening up.

Now, you decide to steal.

1) Since you are "stealing",then it doesn't matter what 2 cards you have?? Or do you need to have something semi-decent to have some chance of winning if you get called?

2) You are betting into unknown hands since the SB and BB have yet to act.

a) The SB/BB is holding a monster AA/KK...etc, it is unlikely that he will chase you away with a massive reraise, right? So in this case you are probably doomed to lose at least what you raised.

b) The SB/BB has something reasonable but wants to take the pot right now and so reraises big. Even if it's something like 66, he is probably way ahead of whatever trash you're holding, so say you fold.

c) The SB/BB has trash, they both fold, and you take the pot.

d) One or both of them smooth call, and then you don't really know where you stand, but you do have position.

So say you think the blinds will fold to a raise of 3xBB if they are holding nothing, then that's your raise. Each time you win, you get 1.5BB, and each time you lose, you lose4BB (lets discount the smooth call for the moment). So you need this play to be successful 4 times out of 5 just be just about ahead.

So, really, my question is this: Is this essentially blind (prdon the pun) gamble?

Feel free to tear my reasoning to shreds, I;m here to learn.

Bp!

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Bp!

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Bp!

Hey Bread,
Blind stealing is essential throughout your play and picking the right moments is where it lies. When you get down to 4 or 5 players you should be doing it once every 1 to 2 orbits just to stay in the game and not fall too far back from a win.

As for the cards to raise with on the button, I prefer to do with it with playable hands (though it depends at what stage of a tournament) , usually ill raise with any A or suited K or somtimes an ok King, any pocket pair is worth a raise (as long as blinds are worth stealing)

"a) The SB/BB is holding a monster AA/KK...etc, it is unlikely that he will chase you away with a massive reraise, right? "

Its rare enough the SB/BB will not raise here, they usually hope you actually have a hand so they raise to get more money in the pot, unless you have been playin very aggressivly (and they think you will do the betting for them post flop)the SB/BB will usually raise here so you can get away from the hand if its complete trash (6 6 on the button isn't complete trash)

If they have trash and fold..excellent

If one of them smooth call..well you should have a playable hand with any A or K so its not all doom, as you say you have adavtage of poistion, if they check throw in a bet if you can afford it, most times they will fold without a hand. and if you connect dont always be afraid if they push after your bet, they mite just be on the resteal but tread carefully !:)

Iago

breadmonkey wrote:

I have been thinking about this and it confuses me. For the sake of this discussion, let's just say it's late in an STT, it's folded around to you in the button. You have been playing tight early on but have been gradually loosening up.

Now, you decide to steal.

i presume you mean button above?

1) Since you are "stealing",then it doesn't matter what 2 cards you have?? Or do you need to have something semi-decent to have some chance of winning if you get called?

yes and no, ideally you want to have at least a semi-reasonable holding if you're going to do this. It depends on how the table has been playing and specifically how the SB and BB have been playing. If they've been pretty tight then you can make this move with a much wider range of hands.

2) You are betting into unknown hands since the SB and BB have yet to act.

True to a point. as the number of players decreases though you can start playing a wider range of hands more aggressively. Although they have unknown hands their hands have to be significantly better than average in order to call a raise. Unless you've been playing up all game they have to allow for you having a strong hand.

a) The SB/BB is holding a monster AA/KK...etc, it is unlikely that he will chase you away with a massive reraise, right? So in this case you are probably doomed to lose at least what you raised.

They would probably raise with KK, maybe just flat call with AA. If they raise then you can get away from the hand. If they flat call and check the flop you can get check behind if required. If they bet the flop then you can fold if you don't have enough of it. This will come down to your read on the player combined with the cards on the board.

b) The SB/BB has something reasonable but wants to take the pot right now and so reraises big. Even if it's something like 66, he is probably way ahead of whatever trash you're holding, so say you fold.

That depends on what you define as trash, how many players are left and how many chips the blinds have. Each example is different, for example

5 players left I'm on the button with 3K blinds at 50/100 and the BB has 1200 left after posting the blind. I'm dealt Qd9d and it's folded to me. I raise to 400, SB folds and BB goes all-in.

What factors to consider;

1. I'm getting reasonable odds to call here regardless

2. The BB is pretty shortstacked so his range has increased from what it would have been earlier

3. but there's been a raise in front of him so his range should have tightened up

4. but that raise came from the button who could have been chancing his arm, so the re-raise could well be a semi-bluff. Maybe I have a hand, maybe I don't but if to call this raise I have to have a reasonable hand.

5. if I call and lose am I comfortable with my remaining stack.

6. How has he played up to this point, loose or tight, taking chances or not.

based on all of this you decide whether to call or not. if he's holding 66 or lower then the odds are you're probably close to 50-50, but he's representing a bigger hand than that.

So say you think the blinds will fold to a raise of 3xBB if they are holding nothing, then that's your raise. Each time you win, you get 1.5BB, and each time you lose, you lose4BB (lets discount the smooth call for the moment). So you need this play to be successful 4 times out of 5 just be just about ahead.

That's presuming that every time they call they are way ahead of you and you don't catch up. It discounts the times they call when it's 50-50 or when they push you fold. As you should (mostly) be doing this as a semi-bluff rather than a full bluff then the number of times you have to win will decrease. This is all dependant on stack sizes and remaining players as well, you can't qualify it without those details.

It also doesn't take account of the times you'll do this when there's one limper in the pot which increases the risk but also the reward.

So, really, my question is this: Is this essentially blind (prdon the pun) gamble?

Feel free to tear my reasoning to shreds, I;m here to learn.

If done correctly then it's not a gamble, but an essential part of the game. the key is to identify the players you can away with it against and not to go to the well too often.

Of course the upside is that if you do it a lot, then when you do get a hand you increase the likelihood of getting paid off, especially if you show down a few bluffs beforehand.