Thursday

fade2black

2:10 Carlisle

Looking through this card I think a genuine case can be made for all the favourites winning - I'm serious, I might have a fun little multiple on the lot of them.

I'm not going to go through them all but I'll pick out a couple of highlights from tmorrow's card.

SOME TOUCH

Odds on in his last two starts, and probably, but hopefully not again tomorrow. His win at Mussleburgh shines out in the context of this race and the race after that can be ignored because the saddle slipped. Looking through the opposition only a couple make any appeal. Windy Hills and Numero de Soltzen would be possibilities but you'd think that because both of them finished behind Hard Act to Follow(another JOhnston horse) last time out (in different races) Howard Johnston would have a good line on the form. Secret Pact is interesting and should win soon, he'd be the forecast choice and will win a similar hurdle race soon.

3:10 Thurles

NATURAL STORM

Real banker material this. Feb 18 finishes 4 lengths behind Brutto Facie who stepped up markedly at the weekend. Was booked for second behind useful In Compliance before falling at the last. In the context of this race that form is very handy. On the same day Bog Oak finished 38 lengths behind him and went on to run well enough in a better race behind Allez Petit Luis. Wolf Creek, who finished 24 lengths behind Natural Storm went to win at Clonmel on Saturday. Geraghty takes the ride, the form is there to be seen, let's hope the price is decent.

2:55 and 3:05 Discussion.

Bit of a form tie in here. Kayceecee and Speed Venture are two horses very much on the upgrade. In Kayceecee's race his two main dangers are live ones. The chief one, misbehaviour is in top form after winning his last two but has gone up a total of 15lbs since then and he was slighty lucky last time out after his chief danger blundered at the last taking a lot of shine off the form. (Speed Venture had beaten Misbehavior 6 lengths before these two wins also)Walsingham is a lot more interesting. Receiving 8lbs off Kayceecee last time Walsingham finished 4 lengths behind. He recieves that 8lbs again today, and a further 5lbs. With an improving horse we might say that he'd be entitled to get a lot closer today but I think Walsingham isn't improving like the favourite is.

If Kayceecee does the business then we'll be entitled to be confident about Speed Venture who beat that one a half length in the above mentioned race. In great form at the moment and showing no signs of stopping, decent jockey takes off 7, conditions will suit and a bold run will be expected, expecially if kayceecee advertises the already decent form further

3:15 Carlisle ACCORDING TO JOHN

You know, there's something I like a lot about tomorrow's cards, but at the same time that makes me very suspicious. Anyway it's almost 3:30 in the morning and I'm getting tired so im going to leave it at this one.

This race is a form readers dream so sit back and enjoy. According to John's hurdle debut he decisively beats Rathowen by 5 lengths. Rathowen then goes on to hammer notaproblem and the talented and well thought of King Of Confusion. When I say hammer, I mean 30+ lengths. He then jumped up in class and finished a respectable third to Neptune Collonges (multiple winner, entered in Cheltenham next week)

Okay, According to John's 2nd race he goes off even money favourite and beats Morgan be a couple of lengths after ravelling supremely well throughout the race. Morgan be then does the honourable thing and hacks up in his next race. For God's sake, Regal heights who finished 24 lengths behind According to John that day went on to win two very decent races, only to be stopped by Mister Quasimodo and Senorita Rumbelita (not even a length between the 3). This is all fantastic stuff - take a look for yourself if ya want to.

That's all for now.

finnpark

Does anyone know the story with County Final in the Novice Hurdle today.

Forecast Price: 6/1
PP: 8/1
Betfair: 22/1

Obviously this horse has no chance today - the owners/stable are trying to make a few euro on Befair. However, I think that this offers a great trading opportunity to us - it will never be 22/1 when the prices open on track so I would think that you would be able to lay this horse off for 10/1 to 12/1 at that time and if you back it at 22/1 now obviously you have a good margin there to trade. Good Luck.

Bluetonic

Wincanton 2.30, big money on Martin's horse Shrove Tuesday. In from 7s this morning to 3s.

Just point it out anyhow.

finnpark

Bluetonic wrote:

Wincanton 2.30, big money on Martin's horse Shrove Tuesday. In from 7s this morning to 3s.

Just point it out anyhow.

Bluetonic, the reaon there is a gamble on this horse is that both Equine Profit and Longshots tipsters have tipped this one. Both have a decent track record and a very loyal following hence the support.

fade2black

me wrote:

3:10 Thurles

NATURAL STORM

Real banker material this. Feb 18 finishes 4 lengths behind Brutto Facie who stepped up markedly at the weekend. Was booked for second behind useful In Compliance before falling at the last. In the context of this race that form is very handy. On the same day Bog Oak finished 38 lengths behind him and went on to run well enough in a better race behind Allez Petit Luis. Wolf Creek, who finished 24 lengths behind Natural Storm went to win at Clonmel on Saturday. Geraghty takes the ride, the form is there to be seen, let's hope the price is decent.

I'm scratching my head about this one to be honest. Natural Storm 5/2 Top Strategy 11/4. On previous running to level weights and level again today Top Strategy has almost 8 lengths to find with Natural Storm. Ruby's on board but I don't think he's 8 lengths better than Geraghty. 5/2 is a lovely price I think.

Morgans

I agree with you about Natural Storm. Big price. Not certain about according to john, and have opposed him with Capybara ew 6s this morning. Backed him to win at 10s on betfair also. Badly handicapped over fences, he stays all day, and i think he is value against the fav who has to carry 12-1 in soft ground on a stiff track. he might be good enough, but I wouldnt take the current odds about him. I think the value is betting each way against him.

Morgans

Sir Overbury is a great ew bet to beat Mounthenry in the 3.45 also. Racing POst analysis seems to have missed a trick by failing to mention the exttaordinary nature of Sir OVerbury's latest win. He was hampered 4 out by the fatal fall of Rheindoff, and lost at least 10 lengths, looking more than likely to be pulled up. He still had enough to beat a decent field of would be novice chasers, coming from out the back to win going away. Mercuric was third. The RP seem to think that he should uphold the form. Having previously said that he likes better ground, I hope the ground rides to the YLd-Soft description in the RP, at 7/1 he has serious chance of overturning the favourite. Lots of these will be winning novice chases next year, so its one to watch.

fade2black

Have to agree that the weight on the ground is the big concern with According to John but I firmly believe that he's a horse on the up and up and the form can't be argued with.

scojones

fade2black wrote:

2:10 Carlisle

Looking through this card I think a genuine case can be made for all the favourites winning - I'm serious, I might have a fun little multiple on the lot of them.

I'm not going to go through them all but I'll pick out a couple of highlights from tmorrow's card.

SOME TOUCH

Odds on in his last two starts, and probably, but hopefully not again tomorrow. His win at Mussleburgh shines out in the context of this race and the race after that can be ignored because the saddle slipped. Looking through the opposition only a couple make any appeal. Windy Hills and Numero de Soltzen would be possibilities but you'd think that because both of them finished behind Hard Act to Follow(another JOhnston horse) last time out (in different races) Howard Johnston would have a good line on the form. Secret Pact is interesting and should win soon, he'd be the forecast choice and will win a similar hurdle race soon.

Nice one fade, 3/1 winner there. Secret Pact goes into the notebook.

The jock

fade2black wrote:

2:10 Carlisle

Looking through this card I think a genuine case can be made for all the favourites winning - I'm serious, I might have a fun little multiple on the lot of them.

I'm not going to go through them all but I'll pick out a couple of highlights from tmorrow's card.

SOME TOUCH

Odds on in his last two starts, and probably, but hopefully not again tomorrow. His win at Mussleburgh shines out in the context of this race and the race after that can be ignored because the saddle slipped. Looking through the opposition only a couple make any appeal. Windy Hills and Numero de Soltzen would be possibilities but you'd think that because both of them finished behind Hard Act to Follow(another JOhnston horse) last time out (in different races) Howard Johnston would have a good line on the form. Secret Pact is interesting and should win soon, he'd be the forecast choice and will win a similar hurdle race soon.
QUOTE]

Great tipping,and you got the forecast up.What a price he was 3/1,I remember riding in a point to point against this horse and he completely ran away with the race back when trevor horgan had him.

Bluetonic

Bluetonic wrote:

Wincanton 2.30, big money on Martin's horse Shrove Tuesday. In from 7s this morning to 3s.

Just point it out anyhow.

Winner @ 11/2

scojones

Bluetonic wrote:

Winner @ 11/2

It was tipped on sportslive which got me interested in it. 11/2 great price.

The market got it wrong with Strong Project at Thurles. drifted to 2/1 and won easily.

Healio

hear anything on boule d'or today in nad al sheba??

fade2black

I've backed it Healio cause I was told at the start of the meeting that it would win at least once. Has been well backed today so maybe today is the day

Healio

I have backed it already myself, just thought to myself if anyone can steer him home it'd be Frankie!!

Centurion

Good Luck All

PLACE Bets for me on a horse who is trading rock solid on Betfair

UNCLE MICK [ 4.50 Towcester] CD Winner: Win odds,6-1
£5 @ 1.96

fade2black

It all kind of unravelled there.

TwistsAndTurns

Some good calls today fade2black.

Morgans

I've said it before, and I will say it again. And I understand that I am talking through my pocket, but Geraghty is the most overrated jockey in racing. Made three consecutive mistakes that probably cost the horse that race, almost strangling him into the 5th, 4th, and 3rd last. The horse has to have 5lbs in hand before i will back him in a chase again. Infuriates me, the profile he has.

Accordion to John beats Capybara. At least I got the value at 7s ew. It was worth the punt.

fade2black

I'm not going to say much because I'd be seriously talking through my pockets but compared to Ruby's ride on the inferior Top Strategy Barry's leaves a lot to be desired. A profit on the day so I can't complain...The discussion selections were poor enough but that's all they were, selections for discussion.

Morgans

You werent far off the mark when you said that Ruby would be worth about 9lbs to a horse. Geraghty is a sham, and the worst thing about him is that he is the cockiest jockey in the weigh room. I wouldnt have him in the top ten jocks in Ireland.

Sir OVerbury backed from from 7s into 9/2. Good each way bet. All he has to do now is win.

Corben Dallas

v nice call with Some Touch and Accoding to John =Nice double!
Cheers

Bluetonic

Bluetonic wrote:

Wincanton 2.30, big money on Martin's horse Shrove Tuesday. In from 7s this morning to 3s.

Just point it out anyhow.

Bluetonic wrote:

Winner @ 11/2

Shrove Tuesday runs again today in the 5.10 in Leicester.

Edited: Shrove Tuesday (N/R)