Messy live game hand

Hectorjelly

All of the players in this hand are big winners, 3 of them make a living from cards and one of them deals for a living. But - and this is a big but, our home games have always been shambolic affairs, and it can be hard to put a player on a hand when each player sees at least 80% of flops, some more than that. The stacks are all quiet deep, im unsure of exact amounts. The blinds are .25 .50.

I have 68o utg, so I limp. The player to my left makes it 6. The sb and the bb call. I call as well. The flop is 568 with 2 clubs. I bet about 20. The preflop raiser pushes in a pile of chips, im not sure how many. I am 100% sure he has an overpair. The sb thinks for a while, and pushes for about 280. I am pretty sure he has a draw, but he could well of flopped a straight. I think he has a draw more than 80% of the time. Whilst Im taking all this in the BB calls as well for about 250. This is the player whose game I know the least about. He is relatively inexperienced and a little out of his depth here. I dont think he would call preflop with a hand that made a straight here. He could well have a draw - to be honest I have no idea what he has, a set is a possibility - but the way this game is going I would be suprised if he didnt reraise 88 or 66. I cover all the players in the hand. The preflop raiser will definitely fold whatever I do. Do I call or fold?

ianmc38

If we assume the following ranges, then you still have a chance against a made straight. The only one i havnt factored in is Ac7c.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 19.6396 % 19.64% 00.00% { 8h6s }
Hand 2: 02.4625 % 02.46% 00.00% { JJ+ }
Hand 3: 32.4925 % 32.49% 00.00% { AcKc }
Hand 4: 06.7134 % 04.69% 02.02% { Ad7d }
Hand 5: 36.6733 % 34.65% 02.02% { 9s7s }

fuzzbox

With 20 invested, and no idea if you even have any equity, then I think you can lay this down here.

ArmaniJeanss

It sounds like a wild (alcohol-fuelled??) game where you would be unlucky not to find better spots to make money.
So my gut instinct is fold.

Hectorjelly

ArmaniJeanss wrote:

It sounds like a wild (alcohol-fuelled??) game where you would be unlucky not to find better spots to make money.

This is not a reason to fold. If I lose the hand I can buy in again.

ianmc38

I fold because the action before me suggests that I'm up against a set, a straight and the nut flush draw. The nut flush draw may also have an open-ender making him a massive fav to win.

We could have:

Board: 8c 6c 5d

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 18.4146 % 18.29% 00.12% { 8h6s }
Hand 2: 31.2195 % 28.17% 03.05% { Ac7c }
Hand 3: 10.7317 % 10.61% 00.12% { 5h5s }
Hand 4: 39.6341 % 36.59% 03.05% { 9h7d }

Hectorjelly

Stop posting worse case scenarios! Firstly the first guy almost certainly has a draw. The second guy im not sure of, but a draw is definitley possible. Player 3 (preflop raiser) is immaterial as he is about to fold.

Daithio

Gambly call.

Ste05

I think it's a close your eyes and push.

Hoping they both only have draws, even if one has the made straight you still have outs.

Worse case scenario and one of them have a made straight you still have about 20% equity,

If both players have draws (say one with the up and down, and the other with the Flush draw) you have about 50% equity.

I've discounted the chances of trips, according to your reads, and therefore I think I'd grimace and push.

Pot will be giving you over to 2:1, assuming both call, and seeing as 80% of the time neither has the made straight and therefore I think this is a +EV push.

RoundTower

Ste05 wrote:

I think it's a close your eyes and push.

Hoping they both only have draws, even if one has the made straight you still have outs.

Every time Ste05 posts hand advice I like it more and more. This means he probably plays like me which may be bad advice in the long run. It's a home game, so gamble that no one has a set and some small % of the time you'll be ahead and everyone will miss.

fuzzbox

Ste05 wrote:

I think it's a close your eyes and push.

Hoping they both only have draws, even if one has the made straight you still have outs.

Worse case scenario and one of them have a made straight you still have about 20% equity,

If both players have draws (say one with the up and down, and the other with the Flush draw) you have about 50% equity.

I've discounted the chances of trips, according to your reads, and therefore I think I'd grimace and push.

Pot will be giving you over to 2:1, assuming both call, and seeing as 80% of the time neither has the made straight and therefore I think this is a +EV push.

Worst case is that some1 has a set of 8s, and you win once every time you sacrifice a goat.

Even a set of 6s and you are not very happy.

ianmc38

Hectorjelly wrote:

Stop posting worse case scenarios!

Worst case secario is there's a set of 8s, a made straight and the nut flush draw. Then it's oh oh spaghettios

Hectorjelly

ianmc38 wrote:

Worst case secario is there's a set of 8s, a made straight and the nut flush draw. Then it's oh oh spaghettios

There are only 2 players that im concerned with

Hectorjelly

At the time I folded quite quickly - I assumed that the BB would not call without a big hand, in fact he had 35clubs; the sb had K7clubs. I suck

careca

off topic. hector, clear out your private messages, trying to send one to you. ta

ianmc38

Hectorjelly wrote:

At the time I folded quite quickly - I assumed that the BB would not call without a big hand, in fact he had 35clubs; the sb had K7clubs. I suck

WTF. HJ posting at 9am? :eek:

On the nightshift?

I think more often than not we can expect a set and Ac/7c in this situation. 3c5c is surprising.