Thursday

scojones

I might be heading to the Limerick races today, so I'm looking over the card at the moment. I was at Clonmel a few weeks ago where Sea Diva and Tiarella were racing, and infact had their last runs. Whilst at Clonmel, one of us got talking to Gareth from At The Races who really fancied Sea Diva. In that race I had already picked out Bye Day with Paul Carberry, but I decided I couldn't let Sea Diva go without having a bet on it, giving what Gareth had said. In the end Bye Day won and Sea Diva came second.
I also had Tiarella in the race before it, who came second and was well ahead of the field IIRC, but was second by about 10 or 12 lenghts over two mile carrying the same weight. But we have to remember, it was heavy ground, infact the ground was so bad that Clonmel was abandoned after the race with Sea Diva and Bye Day. Today the ground is soft, but the race is an extra 3 furlongs. I remember thinking Tiarella was looking kind of weak coming to the finish, and Sea Diva finished strong enough in it's race, which was 2 mile 2f, and has lighter weight today.

I am so undecided that I'm going to do dutching on them both and hope one of them comes close or does the business.

Oh and the race is the 3.35 at Limerick

Limerick 5.35
Anyone that knows me knows I'm mad about Nina Carberry. She's on top weight Givus a Rose in the last race at Limerick today, who was beaten in it's last race by Sorrentina by a distance of 12 1/2 lenghts. But in that race, Sorrentina was carrying 10 - 6, today it's 11 - 7, a considerable bump in the weights. Givus a Rose is carrying more or less the same as it was last time out. Tiffany's Case finished 4 lenghts infront of Givus a Rose last time out also.

For most of the ones I've mentioned, this is a bump up in trip by 2f from their last run, which was on heavy ground, this being soft ground today. I'm going to be dutching on Givus a Rose and Sorrentina.

scojones

With Fandinni being a non-runner this race is all about Vaughan. Proved itself over class 3 and 4 on good and good-to-soft ground. Hasn't really done much wrong in it's last few outings and is carrying less than last time out. Well used to this sort of company and should get that win today.

Ludlow 2.50
No value in Perle Due Pue who should win this. There's value in Very Special One who had a great run at Hereford after a short Christmas break, where it was the beaten favourite when carrying 11-8 in class 4 over 2m. Granted, this is a bump up in trip and class, but it hasn't done much wrong over this distance and is down in the weights. It's a two horse race between these two, and I'm going for where there's value as I'm not willing to put what's required to get a good return from Perle Due Pue.


***NOTE*** Ludlow is Abandoned.

Taunton 2.30
Before The Mast beat Very Special One (see above) two outings ago, and is brought to Taunton today for what looks like a very competitive class 4 handicap chase on paper. Italian Counsel hasn't ran in 543 days so I'm not going to go near it. Both Adecco and Before The Mast are up in the weights from their last outings, and it will be interesting to see how Wizard of Edge goes today. This is going to be a close race between Wizard of Edge, Adecco and Before The Mast. The blinkers have certainly helped the top weight in it's last two outings, and I do expect these three to be the top three finishers. I should probably stay away from this contest seeing as how it's very close between these three, but I'm going with Before The Mast. No surprises if I'm wrong here.

Taunton 4.00
Thornton is on fire lately and he mounts Rare Gold here today. Once again, there's no value in Bold Fire and these are the two who can win this race. I'm going to go with Rare Gold, but I'm also going to do a forecast on Bold Fire win and Rare Gold to come second, just to cover myself. I'm kind of stuck for time now as I have to see if I'm going to the Limerick races or not, but it's obvious why both of these are contenders here, with little or no explanation needed.

**Note** Taunton is now off too

iloveireland

LINGFIELD 2:40 - i am going to tip SAPHIRE STORM at a massive price of 18/1.his form doesnt say alot but this horse has raced three times in lingfield and has finished 4th 3rd and 2nd way better than on any other course..7 furlong seems to be ideal and donna caldwell is on board who i still have alot of fate in.it has DRAW THREE aswell so that is very important.
might be worth punt.18/1

LINGFIELD 3:40 - GRINGKO is racing here at 13/2.his last race was 1 mile 2 and the horse didnt get alot of luck.it had a hard draw but still finished best. is upped to 1mile4 so it shoulds definatly suit and it has a good draw so should run a better race and it finished 2nd last time but this race has better horses.

scojones

Sea Diva non runner, going with Shoutte who beat Tiarella in Clonmel last time out. currently trading at 6/1. To clarify, bets on Shoutte and Tiarella.

masterK

sjones wrote:

Sea Diva non runner, going with Shoutte who beat Tiarella in Clonmel last time out. currently trading at 6/1. To clarify, bets on Shoutte and Tiarella.

Well done there, Tiarella wins at 10/1.

fade2black

Nice won bud...well followed.

scojones

Tiarella given a way better ride today, last time out it was thrown at the front from the start and it weakend inside the last 2f, today it was held back and let go towards the end. Just shows what a difference a ride can make.

Genco

Some nice calls today thanks guys .... hopefully Tyson comes in but think I will lay some off anyway

Back Treble 16:35 Limerick - Win Market - 4 Nine O (Won)
16:40 Lingfield - Win Market - 1 Orchard Supreme (Won)
17:45 Nad Al Sheba - Win Market - 8 Tyson (Not settled)

Back Double 16:35 Limerick - Win Market - 4 Nine O (Won)
17:45 Nad Al Sheba - Win Market - 8 Tyson (Not settled)

Back Double 16:40 Lingfield - Win Market - 1 Orchard Supreme (Won)
17:45 Nad Al Sheba - Win Market - 8 Tyson (Not settled)

scargill

Genco - hope you laid off - I feel your pain, I was waiting for one result last week that didn't come in.

Genco

Yeppers, I managed to bottle out as usual and covered 50% to ensure a nice return regardless of the result. No idea why I bother with multiples when I have such a tendency to lay off once I get a couple of winners up

scargill

Genco wrote:

No idea why I bother with multiples when I have such a tendency to lay off once I get a couple of winners up

know what you mean - I've been taking it handy over the last month or so on the betting (waiting for Cheltenham) and tend to do the odd patent/lucky 15 over the weekend for an interest. Always end up laying some off even after 2 winners on a lucky 15 !! betfair makes it too easy to lose your bottle!