Peak Oil?

silverharp

Not sure if this is the right place but are people on this board aware of Peak oil? from what I have read it is something that could hit within the next couple of years? are our politicians discussing this or waiting for Europe to do something? RTE radio did a good piece on it a couple of weeks back

rsynnott

silverharp wrote:

Not sure if this is the right place but are people on this board aware of Peak oil? from what I have read it is something that could hit within the next couple of years? are our politicians discussing this or waiting for Europe to do something? RTE radio did a good piece on it a couple of weeks back

Certainly, many European countries are stepping up nuclear build...

Fingalian

Yeah, I read it, scary stuff. Another good book in a similar vein is 'Twilight in the Desert' basic premise is that the Saudis have overestimated their reserves. Seeing as we here in Ireland have no known oil reserves, and we are the end of the gas interconnectors I think we are pretty vulnerable to shocks in the energy supply chain.
What do people of building a nuclear power station to cater for our energy needs? My view would we build one up in Wicklow, though I don't know that Dick Roche would think of that.

Saruman

Could always build one on one of our uninhabited islands... reduce the exposure the humans should something actually happen..
Though to be honest... might be better to buy some land in say.. france... then build one there... supply Ireland and Europe.. if thats even possible...

Anyway yes Until someone comes up with cold fusion or something.. i think Nuclear is the only way to go.. i think its mostly clean and safe as long as its all done properly and not run by Mr Byrnes.

BrianD3

Peak oil is one of the hottest discussion topics on the internet at the moment and can only get hotter in years to come. There seem to be a lot of extreme viewpoints out there - on one side are those who predict armageddon, on the other are those who completley dismiss the whole idea of peak oil. Then there's those who have all sorts of conspiracy theories about oil companies, governments etc. Finally there are those who say that "the market" will sort everything out. It's hard to know what to believe....

Personally, I think that there could be big problems ahead. Not because of a lack of technical expertise for developing alternative energy sources but because of economic, polictical, organisational and social problems. Everything from governments being too inept to tackle complex issues to the general public panicking to "entrepreneurs" cashing in on the whole thing to the detriment of others.

nicelives

I would agree with the original poster in that I'm absolutely amazed that politicians in general haven't tackled it. If they continue on this vein for another year or two we're going to suddenly be at the mercy of importing nuclear produced power that will have been imported into NI. I've generally been a Fine Gael voter and campaigner in the past but if there is not some plans revelealed in the next while I'll have to vote Green at the next election out of sheer necessity.

Bizarre how the minister for the environment can have all these long term plans for transport and not factor in how we're going to fuel it.

rsynnott

nicelives wrote:

at the mercy of importing nuclear produced power that will have been imported into NI.

Really, that's one of the better scenarios. More likely, because of our ridiculous attitude towards nuclear power, we'll be using very, very dirty coal power.

silverharp

Good to see there is some awareness out there, btw Colin Campbell (well known Peak Oil writer) is having a meeting in Dublin (mansion House from memory) at the start of April, will try to make it there

The only upside I see for Ireland is that there maybe alot of Gas of the SW coast, at least it would buy some time, in the mean time hopefully wind and wave power would take off internationaly

The_Minister

silverharp wrote:

The only upside I see for Ireland is that there maybe alot of Gas of the SW coast, at least it would buy some time, in the mean time hopefully wind and wave power would take off internationaly

Wave power is pretty useless and wind is too eratic. Hydro would be our best bet but we have no capacity for it.

CJhaughey

Firespinner wrote:

Wave power is pretty useless

Why do you say that? Wave power is getting quite advanced now.

silverharp

I wouldnt be too quick to write off wave power in the long term, the advantage for ireland it that we have a big coast and low pop density, there are limits to effeciency etc but given that goverments will start giving incentives the technology will improve. you can also diversify the risk by having interconnectors to wave/wind farms in Scotland or the continent. the main problem with any renewable is that you need a large latency or you have to come up with some kind of storage

rsynnott

silverharp wrote:

I wouldnt be too quick to write off wave power in the long term, the advantage for ireland it that we have a big coast and low pop density, there are limits to effeciency etc but given that goverments will start giving incentives the technology will improve. you can also diversify the risk by having interconnectors to wave/wind farms in Scotland or the continent. the main problem with any renewable is that you need a large latency or you have to come up with some kind of storage

Storage is essentially impossible, interconnectors are very inefficient.

silverharp

Storage is not impossible but the solutions would be expensive, you can pump water up a mountain and use when needed, you could use the surplus generated to make some form of biodiesel as a reserve, water could be heated and stored.

As for interconnectors of course they are less then perfect but there are developments in superconductivity that could make a difference in the next couple of decades


Ive read some stuff by peak oilers where basically every form of alternative energy is ruled out because there is a hidden subsidy from oil, basically the argument goes that you can't make a solar power infrastructure from solar power. Even nuclear doesn't make sense beacuse of the conventional energy involved. Who knows, I'm of the view that average energy consumption will have to drop but so what I don't need my apples to come from NewZealand. There is alot of slack in the system at the moment from how energy is used but there will be severe economic consequences

rsynnott

silverharp wrote:

Storage is not impossible but the solutions would be expensive, you can pump water up a mountain and use when needed, you could use the surplus generated to make some form of biodiesel as a reserve, water could be heated and stored.

Unreasonably inefficient, and in the case of the mountain thing requiring special geography. They tend to end up working out at a few % efficiency.

silverharp wrote:

As for interconnectors of course they are less then perfect but there are developments in superconductivity that could make a difference in the next couple of decades

Room temperature semiconductors could indeed solve many of our problems, but they're an "always a few decades away" thing, like sensible fusion power.

silverharp wrote:

Ive read some stuff by peak oilers where basically every form of alternative energy is ruled out because there is a hidden subsidy from oil, basically the argument goes that you can't make a solar power infrastructure from solar power. Even nuclear doesn't make sense beacuse of the conventional energy involved. Who knows, I'm of the view that average energy consumption will have to drop but so what I don't need my apples to come from NewZealand. There is alot of slack in the system at the moment from how energy is used but there will be severe economic consequences

Nuclear is economical these days; the latest French plants cost less to run than coal plants (cheapest conventional) and only slightly more to build. Third and fourth generation plants currently under development (and a third generation EWR is being built in Finland) are set to as much as double that efficiency in some cases.

silverharp

I do believe that nuclear power will be part of the answer, I've read something about a design called pebble bed reactors which can be built on a small scale and have little or no risk of blowing up, in fact I've put my money where my mouth is and bought share in a uranium company last year on the basis that there will be shortages of uranium in the next 5 to 10 years as 40% of uranium comes from decommissioned weapons which is coming to an end.

re the superconducting, I 've only come across it in passing as I follow some of the metal markets, now maybe they mean it in the way "nano" is thrown about, but see article below

http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/pr14oct03.html