Bluff calling

fuzzbox

Party 5/10 6-max game.

Villain is a tight regular. I know he is tight, and I have played many times with him. He probably doesnt know me as well, because I have changed my name recently enough.

He has 2k in the CO
I have 1k on the button

Preflop
Villain opens for 35, hero calls with 5h4h.

Flop (85)
Ks 8d 5d
Villain bets 55, hero calls (I call here because I'm planning to bluff any diamonds, or anytime he checks the turn, or maybe I hit a 4/5 and get paid a little from a king.

Turn (195)
Ad
villain checks, hero bets 140

And so it goes.

charlesanto

What hand do you put him on KQo ?

ianmc38

Whats your question?

handsfree

try and keep this to a minimum because even though you probably win the hands that you do it you'll be found out in a costly manner.

Bandana boy

whats your plan for the turn if he calls

ChipLdr

Although a decent strategy when it works it can turn sour when it turns out the other player has the flush or the nut flush draw on the turn. In your example Lets say he has Ak with the king being a diamond. If he calls your bet and a diamond or an A or K hits on river hits you've just lost a lot of money on a hand you should never have been involved in the first place.

Bozzer

ChipLdr wrote:

Although a decent strategy when it works it can turn sour when it turns out the other player has the flush or the nut flush draw on the turn. In your example Lets say he has Ak with the king being a diamond. If he calls your bet and a diamond or an A or K hits on river hits you've just lost a lot of money on a hand you should never have been involved in the first place.

Fuzzbox isn’t calling the flop with the sole intention of bluffing a diamond. He is exploiting his opponents tendency to check fold the turn in situations like these when he is weak. This is a great flop to bluff call. What opponents is this a particularly effective strategy against? - opponents who raise a significant % of hands preflop,then autobet the flop a large % of time, then check the turn if they’ve missed. Most of the time they are conceding the pot to you on the turn. Players playing in this manner at these stakes are setting money on fire until they make the necessary adjustments.
What adjustments should villain make to prevent himself from being exploited in these situations? You may say ‘start firing two barrel bluffs’ or ‘start checking your good hands on the turn’. These may be an improvement but the better answer is to lower your preflop raise %(especially in ep) and to stop autobetting the flop when you’ve raised preflop(particularly against cognizant opponents). Now your hand range when you bet the flop is appreciably narrower and stronger, which makes it less exploitable. You need to balance your game effectively.You cover your flop checks by also checking good hands. The same goes for the turn. You cover turn value bets with double barrel bluffs and so forth.
But good players are less interested in game-theoretic optimal strategies and more interested in exploitative ones. For instance if your opponents are folding to your turn check-raises with big hands very frequently then you can start semibluffing more or playing back with air. If your opponents then start checking a lot of turns for fear of being check-raised then you can start checking drawing hands to them,knowing your likely getting a free river. Manipulating your hand ranges to interact with your opponents and give you an edge is the name of the game.
In this particular hand fuzz may not need a diamond to take this pot away, villain could have A high or a pocket pair < K on the flop and intends to give up on the turn barring improvement. If I were fuzz I would rather another diamond had fallen because the A may have helped villain’s hand but betting should still be +EV given what fuzz knows about villain.

fuzzbox

Bandana boy wrote:

whats your plan for the turn if he calls

River you mean.

Hit a 5 of course.

fuzzbox

charlesanto wrote:

What hand do you put him on KQo ?

I thought it looked more like KJ.

hahaha - I cant put him on a specific hand, because Im not a mind reader.

What hand do you think HE puts ME on ?

fuzzbox

Well said bozzer

fuzzbox

ChipLdr wrote:

Although a decent strategy when it works it can turn sour when it turns out the other player has the flush or the nut flush draw on the turn. In your example Lets say he has Ak with the king being a diamond. If he calls your bet and a diamond or an A or K hits on river hits you've just lost a lot of money on a hand you should never have been involved in the first place.

Do you think he checks the turn with AK and the Kd?