Interesting hand from the PPP satellite

fuzzbox

Well maybe its not that interesting.

I cant quite remember the stack sizes, but I think it was something like -

Me 37k
Villain 22k.

Blinds were something like 600/1200 or 500/1000.
I have raised villains Blind quite a few times of late, he has thought about it and laid down. I'm expecting him to fire at me fairly soon. He is almost certainly gearing up for it, but is clearly worried about my ability to knock him out.

I am the CO and villain is the BB. Lets say its 600/1200.

Folded to me, and I make it 4000 to play with 8c6s, villain thinks for ages and calls. I think he has no hand, but figures I might call a push. I expect him to bet the flop.

Flop 8h 7h 3h
Villain leads for 5k, I push.

How do you like dem apples?

Ardent

The way he leads out, I'm thinking he at least has a very high heart or an overpair. I'd be inclined fold with three hearts out there.

I'm thinking he calls with something like the the ace/king of hearts coz he got sick of you stealing his blind and he made his flush?

fuzzbox

Ardent wrote:

The way he leads out, I'm thinking he at least has a very high heart or an overpair. I'd be inclined fold with three hearts out there.

I actually figured the opposite.

Norwich Fan Rob

with your aggressive nature and constant raising of him, if he has hit this at all, he checks it to you.

5k is a pfo bet and leave my blind alone bet.

he believes u have missed, he has not hit.

brianmc

My read is AJo with the Jh and he thinks he's ahead.

fuzzbox

brianmc wrote:

My read is AJo with the Jh and he thinks he's ahead.

Stunning ...

I really wish that I could narrow my opponents holdings down to such small ranges. I would become a master player, if I could only achieve this.

How do you do this?

Norwich Fan Rob

if he has a big A, hes over the top pre flop like a shot given your history.

brianmc

fuzzbox wrote:

Stunning ...

I really wish that I could narrow my opponents holdings down to such small ranges. I would become a master player, if I could only achieve this.

How do you do this?

I don't... Obviously.

What I mean is... Any two big cards with a heart in them, I feel makes up a large part of his range. I wouldn't rule out 99 or TT perhaps even a lower pocket pair with a heart.

Also, when I say, with a heart I mean with at least one heart although one is a lot more likely than two.

Also, I'm just playing a guessing game based on your posting of the hand. I'm not... sorry, wasn't... actually trying to assess your play.

Assessing your play given the range I've just established and your background to the hand, I, personally, don't see a problem with it. WP.

Ste05

I like this move, he can't call this without either a made flush or at least the A or K of hearts, both are unlikely, I'd assume he'll fold more often than call here to make this a profitable move (no maths, just my own gut feeling).

I don't like his 5k bet, it just opens the door for the re-raise, it looks like it's small enough to get away from if you push, but hoping that it's enough to make you fold.

brianmc

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

if he has a big A, hes over the top pre flop like a shot given your history.

I'd reword that as...

if he has a big A, he should be over the top pre flop like a shot...

Norwich Fan Rob

hes got something along the lines of 89, or J8s (not hearts), or small pp, folds to a push 90% of the time.

Ardent

Anyway, it's a satellite. Who the hell knows what he has. Maybe a sh*tty small heart.

What happened. A steal went horribly wrong?

cardshark202

I'd say he has something along the lines of a small pp llike 55 or 66, although it is possible he hit a set. Either way I see nothing wrong with how you played it.

Gholimoli

i dont like the push simply cuz it seems to me like he is pot commited.
he has 20K,you make it 4K to go preflop,then he leads for another 5K on the flop leaving him self wtih around 10K and the blinds are 600/1200.
there is about 20K in the pot now so he is likely to call you with any bit of the flop at all or with any high hearts.

fuzzbox

Gholimoli wrote:

i dont like the push simply cuz it seems to me like he is pot commited.
he has 20K,you make it 4K to go preflop,then he leads for another 5K on the flop leaving him self wtih around 10K and the blinds are 600/1200.
there is about 20K in the pot now so he is likely to call you with any bit of the flop at all or with any high hearts.

Is that a bad thing?

Ardent

Gholimoli wrote:

i dont like the push simply cuz it seems to me like he is pot commited.
he has 20K,you make it 4K to go preflop,then he leads for another 5K on the flop leaving him self wtih around 10K and the blinds are 600/1200.
there is about 20K in the pot now so he is likely to call you with any bit of the flop at all or with any high hearts.

Same as that. If I was him and I had any heart I'd call, pot committed almost.

fuzzbox

Ardent wrote:

Same as that. If I was him and I had any heart I'd call, pot committed almost.

Once again, is that a bad thing?
Its not like I'm bluffing ... I do have top pair.

brianmc

fuzzbox wrote:

Once again, is that a bad thing?
Its not like I'm bluffing ... I do have top pair.

I'm with fuzzbox on that one... He's pot committed?? Perfect!

Fuzzbox is most likely ahead. He doesn't want him folding. He wants this to be game over.

cardshark202

Exactly. The whole idea is to try get your opponent to put his money in with the worst of it so if he manages to pot-commit himself in this spot then great. When I'm a statistical favourite in a hand I want a call.

5starpool

Ardent wrote:

Same as that. If I was him and I had any heart I'd call, pot committed almost.

Even a pair of 6's with one being a heart? I like FB's move here because he has several ways to win the pot.

1. Put opponent off a stronger hand with the all-in, such as overpair with no heart.
2. Get called by a pair under 8 hoping you are just bullying.
3. Get called by player with 1 heart, and no more come.
4. Put opponent off a 'leave-me-alone' steal bet on the flop. Most likely I think.
5. Get called when behind and get lucky. Not where he wanted to be though.

Of course there is potential that FB is behind and gets called and stays that way, but even if that did happen, nice recovery from 15k to get a ticket.

fuzzbox

Results.

Well - heres what I thought.

1. I would expect villain to come OTT preflop with a big hand. Thus he probably does not have an Ace, nor does he have a PP.
2. I would expect villain to check a big hand on the flop. Thus he probably does not have a made flush, and he might not have any pair either
3. Villain would like me to fold
4. I am likely ahead of his range, but I would like villain to fold some hands that have good equity against me (like two overcards with one heart).


So I pushed hoping that he would fold a weak heart, but expecting him to call with Ah or Kh and any side cards.

In reality, villain thought for AGGGEESS and finally called with JhTs.
How on earth does he call with this rubbish, and if he is planning to call with it, then he should have just moved in on the flop.

From his point of view - I must surely have a big heart fairly often, which would have him with hardly any outs. I might even have a big pair with a heart, which has him destroyed.

Anyway - call he did, and improve he did not - and victory was mine.

---

As an extra bonus, I feel that showing this hand down like this - made people stop taking shots at me on raggy flops

Ardent

Top pair? So what?

Scenario 1: The villain has top hand (e.g., overpair) and get's put all in by hero.

Scenario 2: Villain is on a flush draw, bets out a semi bluff. He was two chances to hit his flush and a maybe a number of other outs. Gets put all in.

Auto call both times.

Either way, I don't like the all in either. The steal didn't work and the all in is a potential crippler and you really don't know where you stand in the hand.

brianmc

fuzzbox wrote:

In reality, villain thought for AGGGEESS and finally called with JhTs.
How on earth does he call with this rubbish, and if he is planning to call with it, then he should have just moved in on the flop.

You already know how he called with it.

villain was weak and passive. He is under pressure. You're already expecting him to crack soon. He's been bullied to death and doesn't know what to do.

He tried to fight back. It hasn't worked. More pressure. Flush draw might win this for him. The possibility of the flush offers instant release. call.

You were exploiting this already. You were trying to force him into this mistake.

wp. pat on the back for fuzzbox.

fuzzbox

Ardent wrote:

Top pair? So what?

Scenario 1: The villain has top hand (e.g., overpair) and get's put all in by hero.

Scenario 2: Villain is on a flush draw, bets out a semi bluff. He was two chances to hit his flush and a maybe a number of other outs. Gets put all in.

Auto call both times.

Either way, I don't like the all in either. The steal didn't work and the all in is a potential crippler and you really don't know where you stand in the hand.

So there are only two scenarios avilable?

Its never
- villain has a crap hand but thinks that hero missed a raggy flop
- villain has a worse pair than hero

????

fuzzbox

brianmc wrote:

You already know how he called with it.

villain was weak and passive. He is under pressure. You're already expecting him to crack soon. He's been bullied to death and doesn't know what to do.

He tried to fight back. It hasn't worked. More pressure. Flush draw might win this for him. The possibility of the flush offers instant release. call.

You were exploiting this already. You were trying to force him into this mistake.

wp. pat on the back for fuzzbox.

Well the problem is that this is the precise type of hand that I would like him to fold.

He is actually a favourite on the flop I think

9 hearts + 3 9s + 2 Js + 2 Ts = 16 outs - twice.
Eek

Gholimoli

fuzzbox wrote:

Is that a bad thing?

well if he has a heart it gives him about 8 outs.
if he has two over cards to your top piar that gives him another 4 outs.
you may be ahead at the moment but i doubt it you would be much of a favor in the hand if he calls.
also i think it safe to assume that his two cards are over 8 seen as he called your 4k riase.

brianmc

fuzzbox wrote:

Well the problem is that this is the precise type of hand that I would like him to fold.

He is actually a favourite on the flop I think

9 hearts + 3 9s + 2 Js + 2 Ts = 16 outs - twice.
Eek

True.

Now I see why it's on your mind.

I now adjust my statement of well-played to marginal... In the heat of battle, while trying to keep the pressure on the villain I have to say I'd probably have played the exact same sequence.

You're "behind" any overpair with or without a heart and you're behind any big cards with a heart. Is a call better?

Gholimoli

brianmc wrote:

You already know how he called with it.

villain was weak and passive. He is under pressure. You're already expecting him to crack soon. He's been bullied to death and doesn't know what to do.

He tried to fight back. It hasn't worked. More pressure. Flush draw might win this for him. The possibility of the flush offers instant release. call.

You were exploiting this already. You were trying to force him into this mistake.

wp. pat on the back for fuzzbox.

a call by villain was not a mistake based on odds and the situation in hand.

fuzzbox

I was thinking about call after the hand. I didnt actually know if he had a heart or not, and I wouldnt mind him folding JT with no hearts because he would have 10 outs with that hand, and thats quite a lot.

Also - I think he will call with a 7 (with or without a heart) also.

Its an pretty unclear situation - I also thought that he wasnt pot committed, as he would still have 10BBs or so if he passed his hand. But I was wrong.

Norwich Fan Rob

bottom line is u are defo ahead on this flop, this is no way this type of villian leads for 5k with anything thats ahead of u.

he has 11k behind, if he had any more at all, he could pass, even as it is, its not an auto call imo with just J high and a poor flush draw.

im defo all in everytime when he leads at this.

brianmc

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

bottom line is u are defo ahead on this flop...

Ahead maybe... favourite? Maybe not.

Is villain smart enough to know when he has a monster draw? If the villain is that smart then can the villain know that he has a monster draw?

What was your image like thus far fuzzbox?

Gholimoli

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

bottom line is u are defo ahead on this flop, this is no way this type of villian leads for 5k with anything thats ahead of u.

he has 11k behind, if he had any more at all, he could pass, even as it is, its not an auto call imo with just J high and a poor flush draw.

im defo all in everytime when he leads at this.

being ahead is not enough when your chancing most of ur stack.
i was in a tourny with AKo and raised got a caller from some one with same stack as me. flop Ah 2s 4s villain goes all in for something like 20BB and i call.
he shows A5s .i was ahead but he was fav to win and he did.

fuzzbox

Gholimoli wrote:

being ahead is not enough when your chancing most of ur stack.
i was in a tourny with AKo and raised got a caller from some one with same stack as me. flop Ah 2s 4s villain goes all in for something like 20BB and i call.
he shows A5s .i was ahead but he was fav to win and he did.

If you had folded you would have made a mistake.

RoundTower

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

bottom line is u are defo ahead on this flop, this is no way this type of villian leads for 5k with anything thats ahead of u.

he has 11k behind, if he had any more at all, he could pass, even as it is, its not an auto call imo with just J high and a poor flush draw.

im defo all in everytime when he leads at this.

I think this is right, it looks like he has left himself enough behind that he can pass to the raise. I would push every time here, I really don't like folding top pair. You said this was a satellite, how many are left and how many get paid?

Gholimoli

fuzzbox wrote:

If you had folded you would have made a mistake.

nah ,accourding to Sklansky you make mistake by doing something opposit to what you would do had you seen the other person's card.
i would fold if i had seen his hand .

fuzzbox

Gholimoli wrote:

nah ,accourding to Sklansky you make mistake by doing something opposit to what you would do had you seen the other person's card.
i would fold if i had seen his hand .

Then you would have made a mistake. You should call if you see his cards.

kickintheteeth

fuzzbox wrote:

9 hearts + 3 9s + 2 Js + 2 Ts = 16 outs - twice.
Eek

is it not 3 Js and 3Ts, leaving him 18 outs? and what do u mean by teh "twice" comment?

5starpool

kickintheteeth wrote:

is it not 3 Js and 3Ts, leaving him 18 outs? and what do u mean by teh "twice" comment?

If you count 3 J's and 3 T's as well as 9 hearts, then you are counting 2 cards twice. 16 is correct. 16 outs twice means that he has the turn and the river to hit his card on, 2 opportunities to hit a ~30% shot.

Edit: as below with the J. 3 of them.

fuzzbox

kickintheteeth wrote:

is it not 3 Js and 3Ts, leaving him 18 outs? and what do u mean by teh "twice" comment?

Twice = two cards - so the outs are available on either card.

We cant count the hearts twice - Th would be counted a 2nd time. 3 Js is fair comment though. 17 outs for him .. the fiend.

Norwich Fan Rob

17 outs = fcuk, thats a decent enough fav........(68%)
however, if u were pushing with QQ with Qh, or made high flush, he has only runner runner FH, which is 1.2%.

handsfree

rob how did you work out 68%. just wondering because i was trying to work it out myself just through a thought process but i came to the conclusion that you definitly can't double the odds. my reasoning being that if you flip a coin twice you aren't guatanteed to win your odds being 75%. just out of interest

Norwich Fan Rob

2 cards to go, no of outs x 4 = %
1 card to go no of outs x 2 + 2 = %

fixer

where did you ever read that bit of creative math?

Norwich Fan Rob

not sure where exactly where i read it, but it approxs to within 1% of the correct odds for calc your win % after the flop and turn.

RoundTower

handsfree wrote:

rob how did you work out 68%. just wondering because i was trying to work it out myself just through a thought process but i came to the conclusion that you definitly can't double the odds. my reasoning being that if you flip a coin twice you aren't guatanteed to win your odds being 75%. just out of interest

If you just double the odds, it's close enough if the number of outs is small.

So for a coin it is a long way off, but the chances of rolling a 6 in 2 rolls of a die are "about" 1/3, and the chances of hitting your number in 2 spins at roulette are "approximately" 2/37.

edit: there isn't any number that gives you the % chance of winning with 16 outs on the flop, it depends on the exact hands and your opponent may also have chances to improve. So being a bit off is OK anyway.

handsfree

ok i worked it out on pen and paper

1st scenario hit both of your cards 16/47*16/46=0.3404*0.3478=.1183
2nd scenario hit one card 16/47*30/47=.2220
3rd scenario hit one 31/47*16/46= .2294

now add and *100 = 56.97%

fuzzbox

you have to subtract the times that he hits precisely one pair and I improve to trips or two-pair.