Saturdays Selections

masterK

A cracking days racing with top quality racing everywhere. Here are my thoughts.

3:35 Uttoxeter - Whereareyounow - 16/1

I'm starting off with a biggy, Whereareyounow will relish the heavy going and will stay all day. He's won around Uttoxeter in similar conditions before. He is 6lb lower than his last winning mark and if he can return to anything like his old form is a cracking bet at the price.

2:55 Uttoxeter - Russian Sky - 8/1

Nina De Sivola is going to be all the rage here so it should be possible to get a decent price on Russian Sky. The 3 mile trip on heavy ground is going to be extremely testing so it's imperative to have a horse with a proven record on your side. An interesting piece of form from a Sedgefield race back in November when Russian Sky was 2nd in a race Nina De Sivola was pulled up in, to further strengthen the case Russian Sky is 13lb better off today.

1:40 Haydock - A New Story - 6/1

A close 3rd behind What a native in the Pierse chase as Leopardstown I fancy A New Story to turn the tables today. They are weighted to finish very close together. One important point to remember about that race was the fact A New Story had a very difficult race 2 weeks previous in the Paddy Power while What a Native was coming back of a short break. The are both off light weights which will be a big help in this test of stamina.

2:25 Uttoxeter - Hoh Viss - 4/1

At 6 Hoh Viss looks like a horse still very much on the upgrade, a proven course and distance winner who really caught the eye last time out when coming from off the pace to win easily from Euro American. A 7lb rise in the weights looks leniant and I fully expect him to go close again.


I might have another one or two to add in the morning.

fade2black

I have to go against ya on the 1:40....I really think this race is all about What a Native. Loves the heavy ground, stays all day and like a New Story has a nice little weight...essential on ground like this. You're right though, it is quite close between the two of them and I hope the race boils down to these two Irish ones but I'm gonna side with Charlie Swan's horse.

2:05 Wolves - George's Flyer NON RUNNER

Back at a more realistic level and on a track where he has a strike rate of 100% I think the flyer is the one here.

1:25 OUR VIC

I always seem to be tipping this horse up on this forum. Anyway, Our Vic would be odds on here if it wasn't for his poor showing in the Robin Cook at Cheltenham in December but I just think that Our Vic is a horse that needs some time between races and because that run was just too bad to be true, he has to be given another chance. Fodmort was 8 lengths back in the Paddy Power Gold Cup but at level weights today he deserves to get a lot closer. He's unproven on the ground though and the bigger danger is likely to come from My Will who will love conditions.

2:25 uttoxeter Magot De Grugy

Should be a decent price, this is another who will love the heavy ground and goes off with a nice light weight. Was well on the upgrade until he was beaten a half length by God's Token (who's come out and won again since) and then had an off day behind Dom D'Orgeval...like Our Vic, I'm just gonna say that everyone is entitled to have a bad day at the office and how many times have we seen horses bounce back after a bad effort at a lovely price. He will enjoy a lovely weight allowance from a few of the more fancied horses here and on ground as heavy as this (that he loves) - he will definitely, at least, get a place.

4:05 Uttoxeter BRIAR'S MIST NON RUNNER

Stepping up in class today but the ease at which he won his latest has to bring him into the frame here. This is the ground he revels in and off bottom weight this one stands out like a beacon. His last run on heavy ground was over 3.6, he steps back 4 furlongs here and will take all the beating.

That's all for now...doubt I'll get back for more though..there's a certain soccer match I'll be watching tomorrow morning.

Good luct to y'all

Crumbs

I'm also siding with What A Native in the 1:40.

3:25 Haydock - Kalca Mome - 6/1

Back in good form of late and has gone well in soft/heavy ground before. The track should be very cut up by the time this race is off and he'll take to it better than some of the others. Often gets outpaced before finishing strongly so hopefully, he'll be able to stay with the leaders at the slightly slower pace on this ground.

(Edit: Just saw that Healio put this one in the Horses To Follow thread last night, so if it loses blame him! )

masterK

fade2black wrote:

1:25 OUR VIC

I always seem to be tipping this horse up on this forum. Anyway, Our Vic would be odds on here if it wasn't for his poor showing in the Robin Cook at Cheltenham in December but I just think that Our Vic is a horse that needs some time between races and because that run was just too bad to be true, he has to be given another chance. Fodmort was 8 lengths back in the Paddy Power Gold Cup but at level weights today he deserves to get a lot closer. He's unproven on the ground though and the bigger danger is likely to come from My Will who will love conditions.

The formbook certainly says that Our Vic should win, I have him down as a maybe at the moment, mainly because I can't stand the horse, you really never know what sort of run you will get for you money.

fade2black

I agree with ya 100% but I have a soft spot for the horse. He's no fondmort in the heart stakes but I think he's worth forgiving today.

scargill

get in there Our Vic. Jesus Christ that loose horse.....nearly lost my life watching it !!!

digiman

fade2black wrote:

1:25 OUR VIC

I always seem to be tipping this horse up on this forum. Anyway, Our Vic would be odds on here if it wasn't for his poor showing in the Robin Cook at Cheltenham in December but I just think that Our Vic is a horse that needs some time between races and because that run was just too bad to be true, he has to be given another chance. Fodmort was 8 lengths back in the Paddy Power Gold Cup but at level weights today he deserves to get a lot closer. He's unproven on the ground though and the bigger danger is likely to come from My Will who will love conditions.

A good start to the day, I thought that the loose horse was going to mess it up for him, thankfully he ran a very good race. Good stuff fade

Cyrus

:eek: phew his class told and he would have won a lot easier if he didnt have to contend with that loose horse

scargill

now for What A Native. Have also put a small e/w on Model Son

Genco

Yep I have What a Native and Our Vic backed to the hilt in a doube .... cant stand to watch the race here atm

Genco

.... ack I am watching it

scargill

thats some ground - very few of them were able for it. Fair play to Model Son - got me out, but only just.

1st (14) Ossmoses 14-1
2nd (11) Model Son 25-1
3rd (4) Sir Rembrandt 12-1

masterK

Very tough conditions at Haydock, A New Story ran Ok, would have been 3rd or 4th but for refusing the last, his jumping was awful though. What a native never really got into it.

masterK

Has anybody else noticed some of the awful rides some of the most fancied horses have been given, 3 that I've noticed so far where on What a Native, Hoh Viss and Nina De Sivola. In each case in big fields the jockeys kept them well out the back leaving them with a massive amount of ground to make up which as we all know is virtually impossible to do. I'm not saying any of these horses would have won but the rides they were given ruined there chances. I thought everybody knew that it was almost impossible to come from well off the pace on heavy ground.

scargill

you do have a point MasterK but in their defence I'd say with the ground they are just trying to keep a bit in reserve. It worked like a dream for AP on Olaso earlier.

Morgans

Plenty of terrible rides today allright, some on winners, but I cant say that I would have had a problem with any of the three you selected. I backed what a native, he jumped off fifth, behind a very strong pace, one which he has probably never had in Ireland before, and was never travelling in Casey's hands. Went backwards after the second, and kept going backwards. Never travelling, and couldnt have been put into the race.

Nina de Savola moved up into third place down the back straight, but couldnt go on in the ground, especially with the weight that he was carrying. Just a slog in the mud. THe hold up horse was given every chance.

Hoh Viss was another that was never travelling, and did well to get into contention on the turn into the straight. In all three races, there was a good gallop on heavy ground, and i dont blame jockeys for thinking the leaders will come back. I think on Hoh Viss there is some case to be made that he should have been closer earlier, but What A Native was beaten after two fences today, and Nina de Savola had every opportunity if good enough.

Horses like Mongermont, Dont be Shy, and has been mentioned Olaso suggest that horses can be held up in heavy ground, if you have the right horse.

fade2black

Crumbs wrote:

I'm also siding with What A Native in the 1:40.

3:25 Haydock - Kalca Mome - 6/1

Back in good form of late and has gone well in soft/heavy ground before. The track should be very cut up by the time this race is off and he'll take to it better than some of the others. Often gets outpaced before finishing strongly so hopefully, he'll be able to stay with the leaders at the slightly slower pace on this ground.

(Edit: Just saw that Healio put this one in the Horses To Follow thread last night, so if it loses blame him! )

Great stuff....the first down the back straight helped our cause big time. Well done Healio and Crumbs. Threw Our Vic in a double with this one. (with two singles)

fade2black

scargill wrote:

now for What A Native. Have also put a small e/w on Model Son

Just spotted that now...good picking scargill, wel done. We'll have you on the payroll as soon as we starting charging membership

masterK

Good call lads, I ended up taking your advice.

Morgans, do you not feel the reason Nina De Sivola empied out was becuase of the amount of energy she consumed getting into contention, if the jockey had her slightly closer that would have been energy conserved for the finish. She probably wouldn't have won either way though.

Of the examples you give both Mongermont and Dont be Shy were in small fields so there were less horses to pass.

fade2black

By the way...MasterK and Morgans....were you in anyway tempted by Carly's Quest's 25-1 this morning? Conditions etc in favour today, I almost added the horse to my selections but chickened out in the end. Very game performance, lead for the most part, 2nd 25-1

Morgans

Morgans, do you not feel the reason Nina De Sivola empied out was becuase of the amount of energy she consumed getting into contention, if the jockey had her slightly closer that would have been energy conserved for the finish.

That's racing. I think had she been held closer to the pace, she might well have finished 3-4l closer, but it in no way made any difference to her placing. The horse wasnt good enough for whatever reason. Just Beth probably dogged it in the end, but Nine de Savola was a long long way behind. It wasnt a particularly bad ride IMO.

Yes there were less horses, but the principle is the same. The ground needed to be made up by hold up horses in heavy ground. In fact, there are reasons to believe that jockeys should sit closer to the pace in races with fewer horses as a soft lead - often got in smaller races - is more difficult to peg back.

In general, all horses should be excused poor runs on this kind of ground, and it is easier for jockeys to get in wrong in these conditions, but I dont think that the rides specified were particularly bad - especially What A Native.

Have written off Carly's Quest myself, and it was a fine run from a mare that loves the conditions. Too old to be improving, she'll do well to get in the winners enclosure again, but best of luck to her.

scojones

Nicely done with Our Vic fade, Ever since you tipped it I've been following it, very good win today and the loose horse nearly made my heart skip a few beats. I had a good enough day today, with Our Vic and Speed Venture both winning for me. I also picked out Triple Mint but never got to put the bet on and it came home at 9/1. In the last at Gowran Park I had Offaly (Nina Carberry) who finished third, just before the off I was very tempted to put an e/w on Oran Flyer. I should have listened to myself

Good to see we all did well, lets hope the Saturday's to come will be as good as the racing today.

Healio

Crumbs wrote:

(Edit: Just saw that Healio put this one in the Horses To Follow thread last night, so if it loses blame him! )

and (if)when it wins you all know where to send the tip!!;)

Nice day all round for everyone, 24 days til cheltenham lets keep it goin!!