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Avian Bird Flu

  • 13-02-2006 5:32pm
    #1
    oxygen_old
    Closed Accounts Posts: 897 ✭✭✭


    What do ye think of this bird flu then eh? It meets two of the three criteria for a pandemic. The only criteria its lacks is the ability to spread easily among humans. The avian bird flu of the 1940's killed over 50 million people, and with current global travel this outbreak, were it to outbreak,they reckon this outbreak could kill millions more than that. Scary stuff, I know I will be watching Sky news to check it doesn't become human passable


Comments

  • #2
    Thomas_S_Hunterson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,151 ✭✭✭Thomas_S_Hunterson


    Joint fabrication of bothe the CIA and the major US pharmaceutical companies;)
    I think we're getting a bit worked up about it


  • #3
    oxygen_old
    Closed Accounts Posts: 897 ✭✭✭oxygen_old


    In fairness, I dont think we are. They estimate a current day outbreak could kill up to 150 million people,and its not just confined to the very young and very old


  • #4
    Thomas_S_Hunterson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,151 ✭✭✭Thomas_S_Hunterson


    oxygen wrote:
    Scary stuff, I know I will be watching Sky news to check it doesn't become human passable
    At least if your at home watching Sky news, you're unlikely to pick it up:p
    I still think the media may have blown it out of proportion somewhat


  • #5
    GuanYin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 15,552 ✭✭✭✭GuanYin


    oxygen wrote:
    What do ye think of this bird flu then eh? It meets two of the three criteria for a pandemic. The only criteria its lacks is the ability to spread easily among humans. The avian bird flu of the 1940's killed over 50 million people, and with current global travel this outbreak, were it to outbreak,they reckon this outbreak could kill millions more than that. Scary stuff, I know I will be watching Sky news to check it doesn't become human passable

    First off: "avian" bird flu? I mean, is there a feline bird flu we should be worried about? Or maybe a canine bird flu? My greatest personal fear is nematode bird flu.

    And I think that really just sums it up. To quote Dawkins, "Science Journalism is far too important to be left to journalists." If they can't even give the thing a sensible name, what else are they likely to screw up?

    The answer is the reality of the situation. Fear sells newspapers and this Bird Flu is really just this years SARS. Is it a problem? If you are in close contact with poultry, then yes it is. However, the chances of a human transmissible strain developing and creating a global epidemic are, for now, slim.

    If you want to find out about it, buy Scientific American or New Scientist and have a read, but don't go scaremongered after watching Sky News or reading The Sun, The Star or the Daily Mail. These are the very people who write articles saying how shocking it was that people with "suspected SARS" were turned away from hospitals (full of sick people who were most at risk).


  • #6
    DrIndy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭DrIndy


    All that is needed is for it to jump species to be lethal, but this is very unlikely to happen as you would first need to infected with human flu AND then be infected at the same time with bird flu AND THEN through sheer chance, have the two virus particles mingle their receptors sufficiently to become lethal, it is not a case of one marker being added like the H5 or N1 separately, as all this would do would be to create a new strain of normal flu, but would need to be BOTH markers hopping into a human virus.

    Finally, it would need to disperse widely without first killing the host to ensure transmission. If you note, all the places where bird flu has occurred, it has been in isolated communities.

    It needs to be watched and closely, not panicked about....


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  • #7
    GuanYin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 15,552 ✭✭✭✭GuanYin


    DrIndy wrote:
    All that is needed is for it to jump species to be lethal,

    That "all" is a big ask, especially in H5N1. To be fair it is unlikely and even if it did, I'd be confident enough that its spread could be limited.
    Finally, it would need to disperse widely without first killing the host to ensure transmission. If you note, all the places where bird flu has occurred, it has been in isolated communities.

    And that tells us more about the nature of the disease.

    It needs to be watched and closely, not panicked about....
    Agreed, but no more than many other high mortality viruses and less than the ones that actually spread human to human.

    I'm baffled that the SARS fiasco taught the media nothing.


  • #8
    geraghd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 99 ✭✭geraghd


    Well if the current avian flu spread rapidly during peak season I wouldnt imagine it would be terribly hard to get a human (or indeed a pig) infected with both and both viruses mixing to create a lethal human flu virus of pandemic proportions. And what are the two of the three criteria necessary for a pandemic?


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