Bird flu in Africa etc

lostexpectation

Im a bit confused http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/story.asp?j=172326834&p=y7z3z754x&n=172327594

"The disease has killed some 100,000 Nigerian birds so far."

does that mean the disease has killed 100,000 (chickens) in Nigeria or the Nigerians have culled 100,000 chickens in an attempt to stop the spread?

Quite a difference, is bird flu more a threat to food stocks then humans?

casanova_kid

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/4700264.stm
Looks like they died, not culled.

DadaKopf

H5N1 has a mortality rate of something like 60% among birds. Nigeria has a poultry population of around 140 million, and already 100,000 of those have died from avian flu. It makes sense that many more will be culled.

While the newspapers seem more concerned with the human toll as a direct result of infection from backyard chickens, I'm more worried about the effect it'll have on the livelihoods of millions of poultry farmers across west Africa.

Poultry farmers are already suffering at the hands of chicken producers in Europe who dump CAP subsidised chicken parts - wings and other bits we don't eat - in west African countries at below cost. Due to this dumping, domestic producers can't sell better quality chicken in their own countries or across the region. In Ghana, just a few hundred miles from Nigeria, 400,000 people, most already living in extreme poverty, stand to lose their major source of precious income. Ghana has already been made extremely vulnerable to an epidemic of this magnitude by 20 years of IMF and World Bank structural adjustment programmes that have destroyed the poultry sector. Now Ghana is helpless to prevent the spread of avian flu if it reaches them, but if the IMF hadn't caused the industry to collapse, Ghana would be much better able to limit the outbreak's damage. he IMF's 'advice' caused refrigeration plants and vaccination and avian health programmes to cease.

This is something that the whole region is experiencing.

So I'm more worried about the millions of farmers and workers who'll be out of jobs, who won't be able to buy food to live, and who won't have any money to reinvest once their livestock are dead. At least Nigeria has oil to reimburse their farmers. Then there are the millions who need chicken as a source of essential proteins.

Interestingly, the fear in the rich countries about a flu pandemic is possibly causing some movement on the WTO agreement on access to essential medicines, which, as it currently stands, is completely unworkable for poor countries - and it was designed that way by big pharma.

The_Minister

At least it will cure the AIDS crisis.:D


Seriously, Lets hope the Africans get it under control or there could be worldwide trouble

DadaKopf

Firespinner wrote:

At least it will cure the AIDS crisis.

:eek:

The_Minister

DadaKopf wrote:

:eek:

We were all thinking it.......

The_Minister

Geez i didn't mean to kill the thread.....its a good topic.......sorry.......guys.......hey guys.........oh don't be like this........fine see if I care!!:mad:

Victor

Firespinner wrote:

At least it will cure the AIDS crisis.:D

Not only are brash, inconsiderate and insulting, you are also short sighted.

Yes, AIDS victims are suseptible to infection and many die of influenza, but you would be turning a serious problem into a profound crisis as you go from a steady rate of deaths to a flood. In such circumstances, trouble starts, governments fall, wars start. More people die.

Still funny?

The_Minister

Victor wrote:

you would be turning a serious problem into a profound crisis as you go from a steady rate of deaths to a flood. In such circumstances, trouble starts, governments fall, wars start. More people die.

Still funny?

Thats called slapstick.

DadaKopf

Eh, what? Is someone gonna ban this jerk?

The_Minister

DadaKopf wrote:

Eh, what? Is someone gonna ban this jerk?

It was only a joke lighten up. its not like it was said seriously.
(Though I think it is within shouting distance of the line)

DadaKopf

Oh, jokes. I get jokes. This wasn't funny.

Unpossible

At least it will cure the AIDS crisis.

I think it would be very bad for everyone if the flu made that kind of jump. To paraphrase a doctor in a documentry on tv recently; "We are not too worried about a few isolated deaths, the problem is when the flu doesnt kill the patent and is allowed to mutate. Then it can spread throughout the human population".

dbnavan

Firespinner wrote:

We were all thinking it.......

Speak for yourself, I second the call for a ban

DadaKopf

I think it would be very bad for everyone if the flu made that kind of jump. To paraphrase a doctor in a documentry on tv recently; "We are not too worried about a few isolated deaths, the problem is when the flu doesnt kill the patent and is allowed to mutate. Then it can spread throughout the human population".

Even if the flu in Africa doesn't mutate (it very well may not), the nature of farming in west Africa, and the general nature of development there, will mean that millions of poultry farmers and workers involved in the industry, who have already been made extremely vulnerable by forced liberalisation, may not only be out of work, but they and their families may starve because they won't be able to afford food. Those to do become ill won't be able to afford treatment. Some families may be decimated and they could very well become caught in a poverty trap.

I don't know whether this can be avoided now or not, but a contingency plan has to be put into place to stop this from happening. Either that or the pharmaceutical companies let anyone who wants to produce the vaccine, and chickens and people in developing countries get innoculated for free.

The_Minister

Currently, I'm more concerned that its reached France. That means it may reach Ireland.

dadakopf wrote:

Either that or the pharmaceutical companies let anyone who wants to produce the vaccine, and chickens and people in developing countries get innoculated for free.

If it does mutate early estimates show that a vaccine would not be ready for a month. We would be lucky to get it.

dbnavan

Firespinner wrote:

Currently, I'm more concerned that its reached France. That means it may reach Ireland.





If it does mutate early estimates show that a vaccine would not be ready for a month. We would be lucky to get it.

Are you not banned yet? :eek:

BIG IF anyone that died from it had close contact with the birds, I have no doubt it will reach Ireland if it is in France.

The_Minister

dbnavan wrote:

BIG IF anyone that died from it had close contact with the birds, I have no doubt it will reach Ireland if it is in France.

Its not impossible that it will mutate. Apparently the Spanish Lady was the same kinda bug. Why couldn't it be spread by snails, so much easier to stop than birds

dbnavan

Firespinner wrote:

Its not impossible that it will mutate. Apparently the Spanish Lady was the same kinda bug. Why couldn't it be spread by snails, so much easier to stop than birds

I never claimed it to be impossible, believe me I am fearful as anyone that it will, but the likely hood is decreasing IMO just by the fact that it has already been in some of the most densely populated areas in the world (asia) and didnt mutate,

Lets just hope....

The_Minister

dbnavan wrote:

I never claimed it to be impossible, believe me I am fearful as anyone that it will, but the likely hood is decreasing IMO just by the fact that it has already been in some of the most densely populated areas in the world (asia) and didnt mutate,

Lets just hope....

Yeh I don't fancy being the Omega Man:D
As I understand it it only reached sparsly populated rural areas of those countries.

oxygen_old

Its worth noting that a bird flu pandemic killed 50 million ppl in Spain in the 40’s, and its estimated with current global travel that more likely it would be 150 million ppl killed this time around

zuma

oxygen wrote:

Its worth noting that a bird flu pandemic killed 50 million ppl in Spain in the 40’s, and its estimated with current global travel that more likely it would be 150 million ppl killed this time around

Are you thinking of the Spanish Flu after the First World War which killed 10 or 20 million people as Spains population has never been...EVER...50million and is currently around the 40million mark!

GuanYin

oxygen wrote:

Its worth noting that a bird flu pandemic killed 50 million ppl in Spain in the 40’s, and its estimated with current global travel that more likely it would be 150 million ppl killed this time around

Nope, the worst case scenario figures - that is, *IF* it became human to human transmissible *AND* was still as lethal *AND* was still as contagious in humans as it is in birds *AND* all the epidemiology containment teams cocked up *AND* none of the major countries were prepared for a pandemic - suggest that 150 million could die.

Which is a very different thing to what you're saying.

lostexpectation

who this peter nolan guy from the freeper institute doing on the big bite today,
his tagline said FI environmental insitute but then he waffled on about something a nothing,( although to be fair him he played down the mass human pandemic panic).

i hope rte aren't going to get into the habit of ringing up the feeeper institute everytime they are short a pundit like they did with rbb etc

DadaKopf

The Freedom Institute is a 'think tank' (i.e. not anything like any kind of tank, or institute or anything) run by a bunch of right-wing nuts who can't string facts together to make anything resembling a coherent argument. That's because they're fethishistically obsessed with libertarianism and make every little thing cohere to their dogmatic worldview.

Incidentally, Richard Waghorne was a member of some organisation like "Republicans in Ireland" or some rediculous pro-Bush group around election time.

lostexpectation

who is this peter nolan guy, i think he was trying to come at it from a business/economic risk angle but then Williams asked him what he worked as and he said IT... ?

ah he a suppsed management consultant whatever that is

btw williams also had on eoghan harris willie frazier sean crowe and some guy from saoirse and who was that skinny guy beside?

13 off topic posts binned in this thread.

I suspect the thread has less time to live than a Bird with the Flu if I see any more off topic tripe in it.