Leopardstown 12th Feb

Crumbs

Just starting a new thread on this from a tangent discussion on the "Newbury 11th" thread.

Winelover wrote:

Going for Blueberry Boy this time wasn't too much between them over Christmas. Noise had 5lb advantage that time. Also I reckon the extra 2f just might suit Bluebery Boy you doesnt have great finishing pace.

BTW Both Noise and Blueberry Boy are great prices for Cheltenham 20 and 25-1..

This time, Mr Nosie has a 3lbs advantage and I don't think a 2lbs pull will change much. The extra 2f will suit Mr Nosie at least as much as Blueberry Boy (who is only entered in the 2m Supreme Novices' at Cheltenham, whereas Mr Nosie is also in the 2m5f R&SA).

I thought Mr Noise ran quite green in that last race. His hurdling wasn't fluent and he took an age to get going in the straight but once he picked up, he lobbed home easily, looking around, ears pricked. He looks a real progressive type.

Also, in his only point-to-point run a year ago, he hammered a horse called Ballytrim, who you may have seen hacking up in the bumper at Thurles today.

masterK

I was there when Mr Nosie won, there was a big word for him on track and like you said crumbs he took a while to get going but when he did there was only one winner and I couldn't see Blueberry Boy reversing that form. It's hard to comment on the races yet as the final declarations won't be in for a few hours.

I notice Scotsirish is entered in the bumper, I've heard from a view sources that he's Mullins best bumper horse, I think somebody posted about him already. If thats true he must be some horse after Ballytrim's victory yesterday.

As usual with Irish racing one of the showpiece races on the calendar has become a farce with a 4/9 favourite in Beef or Salmon with his only realistic challenger being Hedgehunter. I really can't understand with the sort of money on offer why we get such crappy fields time and time again for our top Grade 1 races. Sure HRI should be looking to attract some runners from overseas, I would have thought with the money offer many English trainers would be rushing over the water to compete.

Other interesting entries are Mister Height and Dreux (who a mate of mine keeps telling me to back each way for Cheltengam) in the novice hurdle and Studmaster and Escrea could resume battle in the handicap hurdle.

Winelover

masterK wrote:

I was there when Mr Nosie won, there was a big word for him on track and like you said crumbs he took a while to get going but when he did there was only one winner and I couldn't see Blueberry Boy reversing that form. It's hard to comment on the races yet as the final declarations won't be in for a few hours.

Yeah I think yourself and Crumbs are right on Mr Noise. Blueberry is just a locally trained horse and I suppose its my heart ruling my head type thing- which obviously I shouldnt do...

I think Noise could do V well in Cheltenham (hopefully in the SAH)

D'arkness

Studmaster (place)

Hedgehunter (win)

Our Ben (win)

Mr. Nosie (win)

ScotsIrish (win)

Ballyman

Has Glennfinn Captain any hope?? He seems to be an improving horse all the time.

masterK

Some prices for sunday from Paddy Power

Deloitee Hurdle
Mr Nosie 7 - 4
Blueberry Boy 3 - 1
Glenfinn Captain 5 - 1
Alexander Taipan 6 - 1
Mossbank 7 - 1
Schindlers Hunt 14 - 1
Royaldou 16 - 1

PJ Moriaty Chase
Southern Vic 9 - 4
Our Ben 3 - 1
Sher Beau 9 - 2
Father Matt 8 - 1
Kill Devil Hill 9 - 1
Church Island 14 - 1
Lordofourown 16 - 1
The Railway Man 16 - 1
Major Vernon 20 - 1
Baily Breeze 20 - 1
Kerryhead Windfarm 33 - 1

Hennessy
Beef Or Salmon 1 - 3
Hedgehunter 3 - 1
Strong Project 20 - 1
Prince Of Tara 33 - 1
Native Upmanship 50 - 1
Jack High 50 - 1
Nil Desperandum 50 - 1
Rince Ri 66 - 1

The one that stands out to me is Our Ben at 3/1, looks a very good price and I can see him shortening up. The trip looks a bit on the sharp side for favourite Southern Vic, his last race over a similar distance was a defeat to Father Matt when he just didn't have the turn of foot required.

Mr Nosie's price looks about fair.

Bluetonic

Scribble down Don't Be Bitin for the 3.20. 2nd to Feathered Lady on his last outting by 2 1/2 lengths. Barry Geraghty onboard on sunday.

ziggy

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Crumbs

ziggy67 wrote:

I reckon Southern Vic will take some beating in the PJ Moriarty. He is a good bet at 9/4 IMO.

Over 2m4f on good/yielding ground? Price still too short, I think. Like others, I prefer Our Ben or Father Matt.

Bluetonic wrote:

Scribble down Don't Be Bitin for the 3.20. 2nd to Feathered Lady on his last outting by 2 1/2 lengths. Barry Geraghty onboard on sunday.

*cough* (3rd paragraph.) I'm itching for this race to be priced up somewhere.

ziggy

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fade2black

All the vibes are pretty poor about Southern Vic, and I'd prefer if he was withdrawn to be honest cause he's a super animal. Sher Beau for me in this one.

Morgans

Our Ben is solid value at 3s. Not too sure about his shortening but I do think that Southern Vic hasnt faced any race of this calibre over this distance. Both very good animals, but at the prices Our Ben for me.

In the big one, I've backed Jack High to place, and will do the forecast tomorrow with Beef or Salmon.

wheres me jumpa

Crumbs wrote:

Over 2m4f on good/yielding ground? Price still too short, I think. Like others, I prefer Our Ben or Father Matt.


*cough* (3rd paragraph.) I'm itching for this race to be priced up somewhere.

forecasted at 5/1.

masterK

Heading there tomorrow, really looking forward to it, a cracking days racing. Not great from a betting point of view, but if you want to see top class action it's hard to beat.

My bets for tomorrow are:

1:20 Dreux (place) - In all likliehood Mister Height will stroll home but I reckon Dreux could finish second, the weight swing when just touched off by Marhabe Million should enough to reverse placings, added to that previous beatings of Cogans Lake and First Row.

1:50 Oscar Orangle - Lightly raced and looks open to plenty of improvment, best race to date when just beaten by Tiarella at Clonmel and has the assistance of Barry Geraghty.

2:20 Mr Nosie - Will be surprised if he can't built on his excellent start to his hurdling career, was really impressed by the manner he picked up and won last time at Leopardstown.

2:50 Our Ben - Looks like the trip he's been crying out for, the ground should be better suited to him as well. I'm not convinced by Southern Vic over this trip, the memories of backing him when beaten by Father Matt still linger, he just didn't have the pace to cope.

3:20 No Sound - Off a feather weight I really like the look of No Sound here, still a 5 year old and open to plenty of improvement I can see him getting his nose in front. He's getting a massive amount of weight from Don't Be Bitin based on their Listowal meeting and with Carberry likely to be coming off a strong pace I think the race will be run to suit.

Good luck all.

The jock

D'arkness wrote:

Studmaster (place)

Hedgehunter (win)

Our Ben (win)

Mr. Nosie (win)

ScotsIrish (win)

What race is scotsirish in as i got a tip for him for the cheltenham bumper?He's not running sunday! I was told he has to win in clonmel thursday to get into the cheltenham bumper.

Crumbs

The jock wrote:

What race is scotsirish in as i got a tip for him for the cheltenham bumper?He's not running sunday! I was told he has to win in clonmel thursday to get into the cheltenham bumper.

I think the requirements to get into the cheltenham bumper include that the horse places in the first 4 of a bumper before the end of February.

finnpark

I will throw in my forecast selections:

1.20pm Mister Hight although at 1/2 Im sure no-one will be surprised at this. I would lay the rest of the horses, this seems the sure bet of the day.

The big race of the day for me is Beef or Salmonella vs Hedgehunter. Last time out when they met Hedgehunter finished last while Beef or Salmon won easy. However, at 1/3 Beef or Salmon is my lay of the day. I know I was wrong last time out but I will be laying Beef or Salmon at 1/3 as my nap of the day. I think Hedgehunter could win this, I backed Hedgehunter at 16/1 last week to take the Gold Cup so today will tell a lot, not over confident but fingers crossed.

chump

I'm going aswell, now in a few mins, first time heading to the races. Hope the traffic aint too bad

The jock

Crumbs wrote:

I think the requirements to get into the cheltenham bumper include that the horse places in the first 4 of a bumper before the end of February.

I know that,but what i was saying is that he would have to win or run a great race for willie mullins to run him in the bumper as he has 8 entered.

clusk007

1.50 Gazzas Girl

2.20 Mr Noise

2.50 Southern Vic

3.20 No Sound

4.30 Harbor Pilot

finnpark

Everything crossed for Hedgehunter to do the busines- available at 4/1+ on Betfair.;)

wheres me jumpa

BoS didnt jump well at times but even so always looked in control. although very lucky to keep going after the bad mistake.wrapped up a nice little treble for me with Mr Noise and Mister Hight.

Crumbs

Nice win by Mr Nosie. I ate up the 7/4 on him all this week and I've backed him at a nice price for the R&SA Hurdle at Cheltenham. Will be interesting to see if Carberry rides him or Nicanor should they both run. He seems to be a big lazy type who doesn't put it all in, especially when in front, but not in an ungenuine way. He travels well and should be a good chaser.

Backed Father Matt e/w in the novice chase. Kept battling well for 2nd after being headed by The Railway Man but the only real Cheltenham clue in the race was that Our Ben is still a good bet for the R&SA Chase.

D'arkness wrote:

Studmaster is running at Leopardstown on Sunday.
He'll win there.

Good call. Studmaster was impressive. Jessie Harrington seems to do well with progressive hurdlers. He could follow the likes of Spirit Leader and Macs Joy in winning some decent handicaps on the way to running in graded races next year. My pick, Don't Be Bitin, ran pretty well and held on for a place. I'd like to see him try 2m4f again.

I still fancy Hedgehunter to run into a place in the Gold Cup. Nice prep run.

finnpark

Crumbs wrote:

I still fancy Hedgehunter to run into a place in the Gold Cup. Nice prep run.

You can be sure of it, he is currently 20/1 on Betfair which should be taken, he will be much shorter come March.

He had loads left still in tank but just didn't have the finishing pace, he needed a pacemaker to make the running for him. Beef or Salmon was lucky today to overcome that mistake and at 1/3 approx he was extremely poor value. HH made a huge improvement on last meeting and if he improves as much he will take some beating for Gold cup. HH for the Gold Cup at 20/1.

finnpark

ziggy67 wrote:

I reckon Southern Vic will take some beating in the PJ Moriarty. He is a good bet at 9/4 IMO.

The fact that this horse is owned by a bookmaker's family should tell you what to be doing with it.

GuanYin

Ahh studmaster Wrong race, right result!!

ziggy

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fade2black

ziggy67 wrote:

All so easy with hindsight isn't it? I could just as easily say you shouldn't have backed Hedgehunter.

That really would have been easy to say. Hedgehunter had it all to do today on all known form and ratings. He would have needed some rain to soften things up a lot more and make it a sterner test of stamina and he would have also needed Beef or Salmon to put in a Cheltenham like performance.

masterK

A good days racing all in all. Had Mr Nosie and General Motcombe. Nice to see Beef or Salmon doing the business although he is still prone to a mistake or two. I think Mr Nosie would have won a lot more easily had it not been for the interference he suffered by a loose horse, his jumping went to pieces after that. He will be of interest at Cheltenham.

One thing that really pissed me off was the amount of people who cheered madly when Beef or Salmon nearly fell on track, it was fairly disgusting.

Great win by Studmaster, I have to say as somebody who had backed him in his previous few runs I really didn't fancy him with the hike up the weights, he still looks open to more improvement, I wonder will he be targetted at one of the Cheltenham handicaps?

finnpark

I was happy with Hedgehunter, it gave me a run for my money but Southern Vic was just not out to win - it is not hindsight as I actually layed him big time. He was At the Races Irish correspondent's big tip - enough said.

I think that wetter ground would certainly have suited Hegdehunter but Beef or Salmon was a deserved winner - it had the finish. Hedgehunter is a better jumper and has better stamina but Beef or Salmon has more pace - there is no way that 1 should be 5/1 and the other 18/1 for the Gold Cup, you can be at least fairly sure that Hedgehunter will get around but the same cant be said for Beef or Salmon. Hedgehunter will not be 18/1 to 20/1 come March so snap up that price now

fr wishy washy

masterK wrote:

A good days racing all in all. Had Mr Nosie and General Motcombe. Nice to see Beef or Salmon doing the business although he is still prone to a mistake or two. I think Mr Nosie would have won a lot more easily had it not been for the interference he suffered by a loose horse, his jumping went to pieces after that. He will be of interest at Cheltenham.

One thing that really pissed me off was the amount of people who cheered madly when Beef or Salmon nearly fell on track, it was fairly disgusting.

Great win by Studmaster, I have to say as somebody who had backed him in his previous few runs I really didn't fancy him with the hike up the weights, he still looks open to more improvement, I wonder will he be targetted at one of the Cheltenham handicaps?

I thought the sound on the RTE coverage was all over the place as a lot of the cheering during some of the races was too loud and at the wrong time (like it was added in/false cheering?).

afaik,Studmaster is going for the County hurdle.

chump

masterK wrote:

One thing that really pissed me off was the amount of people who cheered madly when Beef or Salmon nearly fell on track, it was fairly disgusting.

There was a bit of a kerfuffle where I was alright, but I think it was harmless banter. I doubt anyone wanted to see him fall and hurt himself...

I came out even at the end of the day all round... Twas entertaining day alrite. Would definetely go for a day out again...