Nut flush, river pairs the board

AmarilloFats

relevant Stacks 200
Ac9c in SB.
Mp Limps, Button Limps, I complete, BB Checks.

Flop Jc 7c Kh (pot $8)

I check, bb Checks, MP bets $8, Button calls, I call, BB folds.

3 see a turn of

Tc (woohoo) I lead here sometimes against 2 opponents. POt $32..

I check, MP bets $12, Button calls, I make it $55, MP calls, Button folds

River is Ts (pot about 150)

I bet ????(wots agood amount here)
I have about $130 Left!!!!

fuzzbox

Shove.

Western_sean

I'd guess the Mp has something respectable the straight or a non nut flush maybe pocket 7's if you have come unlucky. I don't think you should try to get it all in the middle though, the only thing that calls an all in here is the full house. I'd bet about 50 and hope for a call from something I'm ahead of.

hotspur

Go all in and you're probably only being called by a boat which is a rookie error with the nut flush, if I bet I'm probably only betting 1/3 of the pot.

Samba

I agree with hotspur, shoving in your chips here is not wise play.

No re-raise preflop, he is unlikely to limp with JJ/KK, 1010 a possibilty.

The best you can hope for is a straight, he could have a royal at worst


If had a penny for everytime I lost my stack when i was learning learning by pushing all my chips in witih the nut flush on paired boards and lost



how did it pan out?

ntlbell

hotspur wrote:

Go all in and you're probably only being called by a boat which is a rookie error with the nut flush, if I bet I'm probably only betting 1/3 of the pot.

You bet 1/3 so there's 200 in the pot he comes over the top for his remaining 130, 330 in the pot 80 to call your getting over 4-1

you then?

fuzzbox

Guys - the pot is 150 and we have 130 left.
Its not like we are shoving for 300 into a 150 pot. Our all-in is less than a pot sized bet.

We will get called by all the flushes and the straight, and probably trip Ts. Yes we get called by all the full-houses too, but we also get called by weaker hands.

Shoving seems best to me. Betting 50 is just bleh. Do you ever fold a raise after you bet 50?
You bet 50, and he shoves ... you now have to call 80 into a 150+50+130 pot (320).
If you never fold, then push yourself, because you are losing value against his worse flushes/straights/two-pair that he just cant lay down/trip Ts that he just cant lay down, and you are still paying off a full house.

Gholimoli

fuzzbox wrote:

Guys - the pot is 150 and we have 130 left.
Its not like we are shoving for 300 into a 150 pot. Our all-in is less than a pot sized bet.

We will get called by all the flushes and the straight, and probably trip Ts. Yes we get called by all the full-houses too, but we also get called by weaker hands.

Shoving seems best to me. Betting 50 is just bleh. Do you ever fold a raise after you bet 50?
You bet 50, and he shoves ... you now have to call 80 into a 150+50+130 pot (320).
If you never fold, then push yourself, because you are losing value against his worse flushes/straights/two-pair that he just cant lay down/trip Ts that he just cant lay down, and you are still paying off a full house.

Oh yeah - he doesnt often check a full house on the river either. (that does not mean that he never does it, just not often)

agree with this.
if his got a house so be it .
if you check his gonna bet at least half the pot wich your going to have to call.if you bet anything and he comes over the top your gonna have to call.
conclusion : shove.

Western_sean

The reason I'm for betting 50 is that unless he has the boat - he should be worried that your looking for a caller because of the size of your bet.

I think the 50 should put him off raising with all the hands your ahead of. If I think he's a reasonable player then as far as I'm concerned the push is a boat - and I'm out of that it's not 4/1 - it's dead money

If you think he won't work this out then push he could be playing anything you're ahead of and he's probably calling with it.

Oh yeah - he doesn't often check a full house on the river either. (that does not mean that he never does it, just not often)

I don't follow he's last to act isn't he? Why would he check?

ntlbell

Western_sean wrote:

The reason I'm for betting 50 is that unless he has the boat - he should be worried that your looking for a caller because of the size of your bet.

I think the 50 should put him off raising with all the hands your ahead of. If I think he's a reasonable player then as far as I'm concerned the push is a boat - and I'm out of that it's not 4/1 - it's dead money

If you think he won't work this out then push he could be playing anything you're ahead of and he's probably calling with it.

I don't follow he's last to act isn't he? Why would he check?

I can't agree with this, your putting in another 50 and folding to a re-raise which could be anything, any flush, any straight or a set

Western_sean

I can't agree with this, your putting in another 50 and folding to a re-raise which could be anything, any flush, any straight or a set

If I'm the villan here the 4/1 odds I'm getting from the pot make me wonder why someone is pricing me in to call. The bet should show pot commitment from the villans point of view - even though as I've said I'm willing to let it go -

To my mind the only reason to raise this is the nuts given that your offering 4/1 on the all in which from a villans point of view would mostly be called.

Should a villan holding a non full house hand on a board as scary as this not be tempted to try and contain the potential losses?

fuzzbox

Western_sean wrote:

If I'm the villan here the 4/1 odds I'm getting from the pot make me wonder why someone is pricing me in to call. The bet should show pot commitment from the villans point of view - even though as I've said I'm willing to let it go -

To my mind the only reason to raise this is the nuts given that your offering 4/1 on the all in which from a villans point of view would mostly be called.

Should a villan holding a non full house hand on a board as scary as this not be tempted to try and contain the potential losses?

1. What hands will he call 50 with that he will not call 130 with?
2. If villain has a worse flush or a straight, but believes that you are not strong, then he might believe that his flush/straight is the best hand and raise, and if you lay down against this then you are making a very big mistake.

Hectorjelly

With those stack sizes we have to pay off a house (especially with the preflop action) so the focus should be on maximising our win whilst ahead. I would bet 80-90 or all in depending on the opponent, probably all in.

I hate your turn play

Hectorjelly

Western_sean wrote:

If I'm the villan here the 4/1 odds I'm getting from the pot make me wonder why someone is pricing me in to call. The bet should show pot commitment from the villans point of view - even though as I've said I'm willing to let it go -

To my mind the only reason to raise this is the nuts given that your offering 4/1 on the all in which from a villans point of view would mostly be called.

Should a villan holding a non full house hand on a board as scary as this not be tempted to try and contain the potential losses?

No. If I had a king high flush on this board and some one bet 60 leaving me with 60 I would go all in because they have just pot committed themself with any number of lesser hands. If the pot was smaller then containing losses would be more important.

fuzzbox

Hectorjelly wrote:

I hate your turn play

Agreed.
Im not too much of a flop fan either.

AmarilloFats

Hello,

Hectorjelly wrote:

With those stack sizes we have to pay off a house (especially with the preflop action) so the focus should be on maximising our win whilst ahead. I would bet 80-90 or all in depending on the opponent, probably all in.

I hate your turn play

Great, why?
I think my turn play made my river decision more difficult. If I could play it again, i would lead for a full pot on the turn, push the river. As I said in OP I "lead here sometimes", I reckon most times.
I think my turn check raise narrows my range.

FB, your "Yes indeedy I agree with him" post makes me ill. My flop play is more than fiine. I am OOP and I have an average draw I do not want to balloon pot or get weaker draws to fold.

AmarilloFats

I thought a push would get called as often or more often than a 3/4 pot bet.
I wanted to earn maximum when ahead, And I thought I was ahead.
He called with KT for FH.....pah

Hi HJ, Turn play, an alternative? Leading full pot on turn!?

hotspur

What hands is the other player going to reraise all in with if you bet $50? It means he isn't afraid of the obvious full house potential, meaning he has one or is a total moron. If I know he isn't a total moron then it is correct to fold to the reraise even when getting 4-1 on your money in my opinion. Are you pushing as a value bet OR to avoid having to make a folding decision that you don't like having to make? I see very little wrong with your flop or turn play myself.

Samba

Personally I don't believe in paying better hands off.

Any good player should know when he is ahead or behind.

RoundTower

Samba wrote:

Personally I don't believe in paying better hands off.

Any good player should know when he is ahead or behind.

Not sure if this is a joke or not, Samba?

I bet about 90 on the end against an unknown opponent, I just expect him to fold too many hands to an all in here. I think the flop play is fine though I would usually bet. Don't like the turn.

AmarilloFats

Hey.
I love reading about how all u guys hate my turn play;) any chance of giving me some advice, alt lines, logic..Yew know..

Thanks

RoundTower

Bet $25 and hope to get raised.

Hectorjelly

Leading for 20+ or just flat calling are better in my opinion. Check raising really spells out for your opponents that you have a flush.

fuzzbox

Lead the turn.

If I was villain, I would check the club hoping to fill up, or being ready to call a much smaller river bet.

Check/raise the flop is not an awful play, although I dont like being OOP with a draw too often, but you are looking to pick up the pot for free and you probably have 12 outs if called which is good.

Lead the flop is also good, as that can disguise your holding.

Check/call flop and check/raise a flush turn is usually not the best plan, because many people just check when the flush card comes.

AmarilloFats

Appreciate it, Thanks. I think "hate" mite be a bit strong..

So you lead to turn for $20, Villain calls. The river pairs the board. Do you still go broke??

fuzzbox

AmarilloFats wrote:

Appreciate it, Thanks. I think "hate" mite be a bit strong..

So you lead to turn for $20, Villain calls. The river pairs the board. Do you still go broke??

No

AmarilloFats

fuzzbox wrote:

No

Helpful...PLease stop..
Usually helpful responses take the form, It depends INSert Logic here////...

fuzzbox

AmarilloFats wrote:

Helpful...PLease stop..
Usually helpful responses take the form, It depends INSert Logic here////...

I do not go broke - the reasons are pretty clear (are they not?)

I bet maybe half-2/3rds pot and fold a raise.

I dont expect to get raised by a worse hand very often.

AmarilloFats

fuzzbox wrote:

I do not go broke - the reasons are pretty clear (are they not?)

I bet maybe half-2/3rds pot and fold a raise.

I dont expect to get raised by a worse hand very often.

so pot is $150 you bet $100. Leaving yourself with $50. And you fold to a push getting 8:1..
Ni han
Thanks for posting, but really. Stop being snotty. Yes and no answers are of zero help.."I agree with HJ" answers are no help..and this rubbish u just posted is of no help..
"It's obvious" is a thinly veiled cope out... When u are Sklansky u can get away with saying sh1t like that..You're not..

cardshark202

AmarilloFats wrote:

so pot is $150 you bet $100. Leaving yourself with $50. And you fold to a push getting 8:1..
Ni han
Thanks for posting, but really. Stop being snotty. Yes and no answers are of zero help.."I agree with HJ" answers are no help..and this rubbish u just posted is of no help..
"It's obvious" is a thinly veiled cope out... When u are Sklansky u can get away with saying sh1t like that..You're not..

I think fuzz is referring to 2/3rds of the pot after leading the turn. the pot size would almost certainly be different therefore its highly unlikely you'd be getting 8:1 on your money.

fuzzbox

AmarilloFats wrote:

so pot is $150 you bet $100. Leaving yourself with $50. And you fold to a push getting 8:1..
Ni han
Thanks for posting, but really. Stop being snotty. Yes and no answers are of zero help.."I agree with HJ" answers are no help..and this rubbish u just posted is of no help..
"It's obvious" is a thinly veiled cope out... When u are Sklansky u can get away with saying sh1t like that..You're not..

Jesus dude - Im not being snotty.

Pot is 32 on turn, you bet 20 and get called - pot is 70.
Bet 45 and fold a raise.

Im sorry this is of no help to you.

If the pot is 150 and I have 130 left, then I push.
If the pot is 70 and I have 175 left then I can bet and fold a raise

If you cant count the pot, thats not my fault.

Lafortezza

Calm and civil, calm and civil....

Atlas_IRL

i would bet a small amount on the turn and hope to get raised...

Ive seen ppl losing your hand a few times by checking and giving ppl free cards to possibly get a full house and take YOUR pot..


on the river bet i would prob bet 70-80 to see where i stand but i would be prob be pot commited after that anyway...

AmarilloFats

I'm calm, I'm calm..Taken, fuzz was refering to Scenario 2, I was refering to my original post..
But seriously too many posts are posted to sound clever, obscure or to agree with respectedposter..When maybe the object should be more about informing and educating..
...Cartoons of the prophet and now this, man i feel militant.

TacT

Move in on turn or check river and call small bet IF you think he's having you on. Fold to an all-in or big bet on the river

If you have the nuts and it is vulnerable (ie a flush that can be rivered by a boat) then you need to get them out of there and take down the pot, make them pay to hit and if they do, so be it, you got your money in while ahead and got sucked out on. Personally, if anyone is flat calling my nut flush, it's obvious what they're up to, unless they're absolute idiots. I'll give them credit for a two pair or set and when the board pairs alarm bells are automatically going off. There's no chance in hell the rest of my stack is going in as dead money. Nobody playing to win should throw good money after bad!

A lot of players use the reasoning that it's only x amount to call but if you know you're beaten then there's no point in calling x amount to pay them off. Whether it's $4 into a $16 pot or $20 into a $100 pot. Let's say you have top two pair and you know your opponent is drawing at a straight and it comes off on the river, are you calling his value bet knowing that you are beaten? If you are, why are you doing it? Doesn't make any sense to me

Would you stick it all-in if you had the straight and the board paired too? I know I wouldn't and it makes me more money by not being the idiot and letting them stick their stacks in when they have the straight and I have the boat.

AmarilloFats

TacT wrote:

A lot of players use the reasoning that it's only x amount to call but if you know you're beaten then there's no point in calling x amount to pay them off. Whether it's $4 into a $16 pot or $20 into a $100 pot. Let's say you have top two pair and you know your opponent is drawing at a straight and it comes off on the river, are you calling his value bet knowing that you are beaten? If you are, why are you doing it? Doesn't make any sense to me

Hi Tact.
You can only apply a % of certainty to what the other guy has. If someone bets 20 into a 100 pot and considering their range you think they have a beeter hand than you 90% of the time;
Well pot is offering you 6:1. and So if your 90% is accurate calling here has a -60EV(90%u lose 20 + 10%u win 120).. If you use www.pokerstove.com a few times you end up thinking like this.

The more money I get in on the turn the easier the river decision is, this applies every time u have the nuts. When I played the hand I choose to check raise the turn, this announced my hand(bad). This meant me and villain had about 150, and pot was 150. I consider these stacks too shallow to get away from this hand(on river), in this sceanrio against this opponent...I bet the river for value and at that stage I'm instacalling a push...

If I lead the turn for $25 and he calls, well that's different, and it would depend, but easier to get away...

TacT

What did you think he was calling with when you announced to him, "I have the flush!" The only logical answers are a two pair or a set that needs a board pair to beat you. When the river paired the board, that should have automatically announced to you that you were more than likely beaten and his push only confirms that fact, does it not?

Obviously reads are never 100% but it was easy enough to read that situation given your holding and the fact he was flat calling. If he had raised then you know he has a weaker flush and there is no need to fold on the river but he didn't. He flat called (drawing and giving indication) that he wasn't ready to commit his chips until he had you beat so why call the river or even bet at it? You must have known that he was drawing to beat you, no?

AmarilloFats

villain would call my push with any flush. a straight and maybe even a king....This was not a case of you're only getting called when you're beaten..
He will call my turn with 1pair 2pair, any draw, any King...I was 90% sure he did not have a set.

RoundTower

I agree villain calls you on the turn with a lot more hands than just a set/2 pair. But if the board pairs and the pot on the river is 70 and you bet 45 and he pushes all in you can usually fold.

Western_sean

I was 90% sure he did not have a set.

I can't see why you are so sure he doesn't have a set surely his play so far is consistent with that holding?

TacT

The play you are describing (i.e has trips draws to 10 outs for full house or better) is based on the implied odds of nearly stacking the opponent in all cases. I'm interested in how you are thinking about this, specifically -

Why should villan be confident that the implied odds are suffiicient given that a percentage of opponents will fail to pay you off completely / at all ?

What exact value are you placing on these implied odds and why?

Also given the action should the villan be concerned that there are less than 10 outs which would make the expectation on this play marginal?

Sean