Maths question/implied odds/stack size

gosplan

Hi all, just a brief maths question.

This situation came up the other day and I was wondering about my figures. Playing in a low level .50/.50(cease scoffing now please, everyone has to start somewhere) game of NL hold'em. Both of us have about $50 going into this hand.

EP raises $3, everyone folds to me on the button and I call $3 with 6 7 suited.

I'm almost positive that the EP has kings or aces. Basically I've played with him before and he only ever makes this move with KK or AA. I'd be at least 90%, tiny chance of QQ or AK.

My question is how deep does his stack need to be to make my preflop call correct, assuming he's got a big pair. Due to the skill limits at this level and the fact that he's first to act I know that I'll most likely get him all in if I hit two pair or better.

I'm not looking to flop a draw because I know he'll charge me too much to see the turn and river. I may stay with an open ended strt/flush draw, but I'm really looking to flop two pair/trips/straight/flush. So basically what's me chance of outflopping his overpair and how do I relate this to stack size. I'm aware that if the player raises $3 and had another $5 left it's not worthwhile so how much does he need, specifically, how do I calculate this?

As Far as I can tell it's 118-1 to flop the flush 78-1 to flop the straight and 15-1 to flop two pair/trips(hit at least two of the 6 cards left). So in total I figure to out-flop him about 8.7% of the time. Apologies for my terrible maths. Am I correct to this point? Does this basically mean that a call is worthwhile(based on my read) as long as he has about 12 * €3 ???

Also, sorry for posting such a basic question but I think that at the lower levels of NL hold'em one of the most profitable plays available is outdrawing someone on a big pair as the players find AA,KK,QQ far too hard to lay down on a low flop.

Any idea how I factor in the reverse implied odds?? say I flop two pair and another pair or his K/A appears on the turn/river.

gosplan

just realised that i may have a completely incorrect meaning of reverse implied odds, apologies

DeVore

Good question. I think you have misunderstood reverse-implied odds but lets stick with your initial question (for which I don't have a clear answer, before I get to the finish and you think "fat lot of good that was!" )

I think you're maths on the odds is fine (given your base odds for out flopping him). I don't have pokerstove installed here so I can't really say. Its not important anyway as its the theory thats important.

Ok, there are a few things you need to take a step backwards on I think (imho). Firstly, and as an aside, there is nothing that annoys the **** out of me more then poker snobbery. People who look down on others for the level they play at. I play .50/1 for the majority of my cash games. I could play 5/10 but of course my bankroll wouldnt withstand some bad nights. I see a load of people who step up the chain because they feel they have to to be respected. If .50/.50 is a big game for your bankroll, then you are putting more on the line then a millionaire playing 5/10. Don't apologise for it, and anyone who is scornful is a muppet and you should ignore them.

Ok, rant over, on with the maths.

Alarm bells are ringing in my head when you are able to put this guy so clearly on a tight range of hands. Its not that I doubt you but if he's really that tight, how sure can you be that you will get a chunk of his tank? Is he really that poor that he'll go massive on a favourable flop? If so you should also call his bet with any pair at all as your odds are fabulous for hitting a set.
Can he really be this mad? 3 dollars before the flop is a good bet from him, but will he do the whole 50 afterwards? How sure are you of that because that % certainty is a key number.

So, we know the odds of hitting the necessary flop (1:12ish). so you are calling a 3 dollar bet to win 50 which is "implied odds" of 16:1. Factoring in his redraws against you (bottom two is a fragile hand) and the % chance that he wont bite at the whole cherry and I'd say this is probably a bad draw but only just.

I'm not going into the hard maths of it because noone has time to do that at the table so rough guides are more help. Also because I got about 4 hours kip last night and I'm packing to move house but I hope this review helps.

I think you're understanding of implied odds is sound. Better then most in fact. My gut says you need this guy to have 60ish and be fairly sure he'll tank the lot on a low flop. There are better cash game specialist out there then I though.

DeV.

Samba

We just recently had a discussion on this and you should find your answer in that thread.

Search for "Suited Connectors" I belive it was Azzeretti that started the thread

fuzzbox

with a pocket pair, the "rule" is generally the 5 and 10 rule.
If the raise is less than 5% of (either your or his stack, which ever is smallest) then always call, and if the raise is more than 10% of the same stack, then always fold .... in between those numbers you use your judgement.

With suited connectors, you have to have bigger stacks in relation, because its harder to flop a monster with these.
Usually the "rule" is one of 3 and 5 with suited connectors. If its less than 3% then play, and if more than 5% then fold.

Running Bing

DeVore wrote:

Ok, there are a few things you need to take a step backwards on I think (imho). Firstly, and as an aside, there is nothing that annoys the **** out of me more then poker snobbery. People who look down on others for the level they play at. I play .50/1 for the majority of my cash games. I could play 5/10 but of course my bankroll wouldnt withstand some bad nights. I see a load of people who step up the chain because they feel they have to to be respected. If .50/.50 is a big game for your bankroll, then you are putting more on the line then a millionaire playing 5/10. Don't apologise for it, and anyone who is scornful is a muppet and you should ignore them.

My thoughts exactly dev. Most people recommend a bankroll of roughly 30 times the buy in for nl cash games. That means you should have a bankroll of around 1,500 euro to play in that game which is a fair chunk of money by anyones standards. Dont be tempted to play beyond your means just for the sake of pride. Thats how people go broke. Stick to limits that your BR can sustain even if they are considered small.


I realise this has nothing to do with the post but I just felt it was an important point to make as to many new players have this silly attitude.

Samba

fuzzbox wrote:

With suited connectors, you have to have bigger stacks in relation, because its harder to flop a monster with these.
Usually the "rule" is one of 3 and 5 with suited connectors. If its less than 3% then play, and if more than 5% then fold.

This is not the case, Suited connectors are in a better position to outdraw the big pairs than PP's.

The best you can get on a pp is 1 in 5 with a SC it is 1 in 4(most SCs are ahead of a pp against a higher pp)

fuzzbox

Samba wrote:

This is not the case, "Some" Suited connectors are in a better position to outdraw the big pairs than PP's.

The best you can get on a pp is 1 in 5 with a SC it is 1 in 4(most SCs are ahead of a pp against a higher pp)

This is totally incorrect.

The problem in hand is to outFLOP a big pair ... you dont get to see the last two cards unless you outflop him.

Samba

Shall i repeat myself once again?




You can flop a draw and still be ahead of a pp.]

The fact is the odds of a small pp beating a higher pp is 1 in 5 and with a SC 1 in 4.

Go have a look at any odds calculator if you do not believe me.