MTT hand ... I dont normally play tourneys

fuzzbox

So there I was last night, and the games I normally play in looked a little crappy for my taste, so I figured "why not play a couple of tourneys".

So I cranked up two 30+3 MTTs for the hell of it.

I get oblieterated in one pretty swiftly, but Im doing ok in the other.

I have worked my stack up to 3k, with the blinds at 50/100 and have recently been moved to this table, where I dont know much about anybody.

I find myself in the CO with 8s7s. There are three limpers to me, and I spy a chance to win a big pot so I limp also. Then the button goes and spoils the party by making it 400 to go. Blinds pass, and one limper calls, and its 300 to me in a 1200 pot ... how can I refuse. As this scenario unfolded, I was wishing that the button had, indeed, lamped it so that I could just fold and get on with it. But call is what I did. Button has 2900, and limper has 2000

Then came the flop ... well wouldnt you fathom it:
6c7h9c.
limper checks, I check, button bets 400 (jesus what the hell is that). limper passes, and I .... well of course ... I pushed.

Comments?

Ollieboy

Why Push?

You only have 2nd pair with a straight draw. Call and see what the turn brings and try to get to see the river card cheap, he would never put you on 7 8. And if you miss, you can get away from the hand cheap.

He could have a flush draw or a overpair at this stage and than your well beaten. You only have 8 outs at best to hit a straight or 2 cards for trips.

Waylander

I think I would have flat called there. I am thinking the other player had a high pair. I am not sure what he was doing only betting 400 into that pot post flop, maybe he thought he was milking, or maybe he could not put you on a hand and was concerned.

ianmc38

He could be betting(edit) with an op or the nut flush draw, AcKc so a push is ok though not great. Unless he has trips you have lots of outs. Hi-lo str8 draw and the 2 7s and 3 8s.

Gholimoli

did you have the flush draw as well as the up and down str?
if you had the flush+str draw then i would not check the flop .
i would wither push or make a big rase to show im pot commited.
you have enough out if the priginal raiser decides to call you and you should be happy enough to take the pot as you dont have anything yet.
if you dont have the flush draw and only the up and down then i would check and call the 400 bet and see what the turn card is .

PPP-Pit Boss

Straight draw with second pair as apposed to flush as far as I can see. Button looks a little shakey to me post flop however with the underbet I suspect he didnt hit and may have been holding overcards. I am not sure that the push was a bad move given the actions of the button. There were two clubs on the board and the possibility of a higher straight. Fuzz, what was the outcome?

fuzzbox

I have 8s7s ... board is 6c7h9c ... I have no flush draw.

fuzzbox

ianmc38 wrote:

He could be pushing with an op or the nut flush draw, AcKc so a push is ok though not great. Unless he has trips you have lots of outs. Hi-lo str8 draw and the 2 7s and 3 8s.

I pushed ... he didnt ... am I missing something here?

fuzzbox

Ollieboy wrote:

Why Push?

So that he will fold

You only have 2nd pair with a flush draw. Call and see what the turn brings and try to get to see the river card cheap, he would never put you on 7 8. And if you miss, you can get away from the hand cheap.

I have a str8 draw, not a flush draw, and middle pair. I dont know if I am ahead or not.

He could have a flush draw or a overpair at this stage and than your well beaten. You only have 8 outs at best to hit a straight or 2 cards for trips.

He could have missed overs an overpair a flush draw, an underpair, top pair ... pretty much anything.

I have middle pair + straight draw ... I might have 13 outs.

Gholimoli

fuzzbox wrote:

I have 8s7s ... board is 6c7h9c ... I have no flush draw.

in that case check and call would be line i would take.
your check/push screams like a draw.if villian is any good he would make his decision based on that information and it would often be the right one which means he is unlikely to make a mistake.

NeVeR

well did he call? what did he have ?

I wouldnt have pushed. flat call and see what he does next if he checks then move.

fuzzbox

NeVeR wrote:

well did he call? what did he have ?

I wouldnt have pushed. flat call and see what he does next if he checks then move.

Pot 1200. His bet 400, you have to call 400. If you do, and the turn comes 2s.

Pot is 2k. You have 2.2k in front. He has similar.
Now what?
check/fold?
Check/call 1k ?
What if the turn comes Ah ... and you check and he pushes all-in. Dont you feel terrible now ... for letting AK catch up?

Especially since the pot is 4k and you have to call 2k .... and you probably have 13 outs, so you might be tempted to call.

Waylander

Yeah you do, but I balance that against if he has 99 to AA in the hole I am gifting him my chips. I really do not like the push at all here.

fuzzbox

Waylander wrote:

Yeah you do, but I balance that against if he has 99 to AA in the hole I am gifting him my chips. I really do not like the push at all here.

Well its not really a gift. I will have outs no matter what he has.
Its very unlikely for him to have both the best hand and the best draw.
Thus, I either have the best hand, or the best draw.

Pot is 1600, if I push for 2600, then he will have to call 2200 to win 4200. If he calls then I would have gotten 3800:2600 or 19:13 (or 1.5:1 or so).

If he has an overpair, then I'm 42% to win. So it would be a 60:40 (aka 1.5:1) proposition ..... and I would be getting precisely the correct odds.

Does every player always call there with every overpair?

Hitman Actual

fuzzbox wrote:

Does every player always call there with every overpair?

Depends whether he/she values tournament survival over +EV situations.

Ste05

I wouldn't be a fan of calling here just hoping to catch. The odds might be just about right, but still, if I called I'd be doing it for a reason, possibly to check if I hit my straight, or pushing if I missed it. But this line isn't great either. My problem is, that if you call here you've committed almost 1/3 of your chips with 78s, with basically nothing more than a vulnerable middle pair and a decent draw, (also one that can be outdrawn). Are you willing to leave these 800 chips behind if you miss on the turn??

I think the push is the move here too.

But TBH, I would have folded to the pre-flop raise, again it's too high a % of my stack to be calling with here. I'd limp but not call a raise, give him your 100 chips.

Hectorjelly

Why not just bet the flop when its checked to you?

fuzzbox

Hectorjelly wrote:

Why not just bet the flop when its checked to you?

Because villain will often push/raise if I do that, and I would like to see what other limper does before I commit.

fuzzbox

lenny_leonard wrote:

Depends whether he/she values tournament survival over +EV situations.

Do you think its +EV to always call here with an overpair?

fuzzbox

Ste05 wrote:

But TBH, I would have folded to the pre-flop raise, again it's too high a % of my stack to be calling with here. I'd limp but not call a raise, give him your 100 chips.

I did consider it ... but those 1200 chips in the middle looked soooo inviting.

Hectorjelly

fuzzbox wrote:

Because villain will often push/raise if I do that, and I would like to see what other limper does before I commit.

if you bet the pot on the flop you are committed.

Gholimoli

fuzzbox wrote:

Well its not really a gift. I will have outs no matter what he has.
Its very unlikely for him to have both the best hand and the best draw.
Thus, I either have the best hand, or the best draw.

Pot is 1600, if I push for 2600, then he will have to call 2200 to win 4200. If he calls then I would have gotten 3800:2600 or 19:13 (or 1.5:1 or so).

If he has an overpair, then I'm 42% to win. So it would be a 60:40 (aka 1.5:1) proposition ..... and I would be getting precisely the correct odds.

Does every player always call there with every overpair?

assuming that if you get called you will need to improve to win ,
also assuming that you have 8 outs(not counting your 7s as outs as there is a good chance he may be on a flush draw and in that case you will have two less outs for your str)
with 8 outs i think you will win the hand about 35%(i could be wrong here) of times.
going by that and if thats correct ,villian will have to fold something like 60% of times for your push to be +EV.
do you feel he would do that?

P.S. not too sure about the maths as i just did a quick calculation.

fuzzbox

Hectorjelly wrote:

if you bet the pot on the flop you are committed.

Right ... I dont want to commit yet.... beacuse if the action goes - pfr bets, limper calls/raises then I fold.

fuzzbox

Gholimoli wrote:

assuming that if you get called you will need to improve to win ,
also assuming that you have 8 outs(not counting your 7s as outs as there is a good chance he may be on a flush draw and in that case you will have two less outs for your str)
with 8 outs i think you will win the hand about 35%(i could be wrong here) of times.
going by that and if thats correct ,villian will have to fold something like 60% of times for your push to be +EV.
do you feel he would do that?

P.S. not too sure about the maths as i just did a quick calculation.

Villain cannot have a flush draw AND a better hand.
If he has a flush draw, then my pair is winning (and we are likely to be 50/50).
If he has a bigger pair, then I have a big draw.

Hectorjelly

fuzzbox wrote:

Right ... I dont want to commit yet.

I think you have already preflop - you got the flop you wanted and it was checked to you - so bet. Its very hard for you to be in bad shape and the chances are this flop has missed the other two.

Gholimoli

fuzzbox wrote:

Villain cannot have a flush draw AND a better hand.
If he has a flush draw, then my pair is winning (and we are likely to be 50/50).
If he has a bigger pair, then I have a big draw.

your right ,in that case your two extra outs i think the villian will need to fold something like 35-45% for this to be +EV.

fixer

fuzzbox wrote:

Villain cannot have a flush draw AND a better hand.
If he has a flush draw, then my pair is winning (and we are likely to be 50/50).
If he has a bigger pair, then I have a big draw.

5c8c
8c10c

they could also be on a bigger draw, with
66
77
99

fuzzbox

Cannot is obviously too strong a word.

Villain is not likely to have the best hand AND a better draw.

fuzzbox

Gholimoli wrote:

your right ,in that case your two extra outs i think the villian will need to fold something like 35-45% for this to be +EV.

What are you basing this calculation on?

Hectorjelly

fuzzbox wrote:

What are you basing this calculation on?

Your likely to be 50 50 with whatever calls you so even if you were called 100% of the time its still a profitable push

fuzzbox

And so to the results:

Villain insta-called with KcKd.
He went on to hit a K on the end, and I did not improve, and villain was victorious. I was left with 100 chips and lost them soon after.

This is an interesting example of how a simple decision to limp in with a nice suited connector in reasonably good position, can soon turn into a play where all your chips go into the middle.

In a vacuum - we can reasoanbly expect villain to have the following hands when he calls:
Board: 9c 6c 7h
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.7691 % 38.88% 00.89% { 8s7s }
Hand 2: 60.2309 % 59.35% 00.89% { 99+, 77-66, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, KcQc }

I dont think its very likely that he has 77 or 66, but there you go. If he doesnt have those hands then our equity goes up a little.

Anyway - the pot is 1600, with 400 for me to call. Villain has 2.1k remaining. I push and make the pot 4.5k. So villain has to call 2.1k to win 4.5k.

If he calls, then I would have received 4200:2500 on my money. This is approximately the same as 60:40, the odds I have to win (if he calls).

Since he folds anything unimproved, pretty much all the time (AKo and AQo and such), then there is a certain % of times that I just pick up the 2000 in the pot and we move on to the next hand.

Thus, the move, in a vacuum is profitable.
If villain ever lays down the best hand (like JJ for example) then the move is even MORE profitable.

For those of you who believe that this is an autocall for all overpairs, you should think carefully before you pile your chips in, on this flop, with just KK, as if I always play twopair+ in the same way, then you will lose a lot of tournament chips on average, by calling with just a pair.


Thanks for your help guys. I wish I had folded to the preflop raise.

RoundTower

Button almost certainly has an overpair or two bigger cards, and will bet the flop. In both cases checkraising all in gets most money out of him. You may make him fold an overpair, and you get an extra bet from him when he has two big cards. I play this hand the exact same way.

Hitman Actual

fuzzbox wrote:

Do you think its +EV to always call here with an overpair?

Well, you're playing the hand like a draw, so it's unlikely that villain will put you on a set or the made straight. If so, then an over-pair is ~60/40 favourite. So yes, it is +EV.

fuzzbox

lenny_leonard wrote:

Well, you're playing the hand like a draw, so it's unlikely that villain will put you on a set or the made straight. If so, then an over-pair is ~60/40 favourite. So yes, it is +EV.

The point is that I do not have a draw everytime I make this play.

I make this play with big draws, two-pair and sets.

Thus, sometimes you are 60/40 fave (Vs my hand). Sometimes you are a big dog (Vs two-pair or a set or a straight).

If you always call, then you lose money in the long run by calling.

mewso

Where is this mecca of a $30 tourney where your opponents play with such conservative ranges?

Norwich Fan Rob

theres 3 or 4 limpers and a guy makes it 400 to go, he doesnt have to have a massive hand to do this (could easily be a move or any 2 big cards).

he puts out a weak bet on a dangerous flop from the button, i would suggest he folds to a large raise here a big portion of the time.

imo u are 50/50 or close to if called, and he will fold a large portion of the time, therefore its definetely a +ev push..........