Interesting hand - opinions

ianmc38

Playing $.50/1 6 handed on VC last night. Dealt 34o on the button. I've about $125. BB has $80 and seems solid. Not much of a read on him as he hasn't played many hands. Folded around with 1 limper. Limper has me covered and appears to be quite looose. Seeing lots of flops, often with rags. Have sene him call large raises with 93s and T2s. Have also seen him limp with AA and KK, so he's very unpredictable.

I complete the SB and the BB checks.

Flop comes 345 rainbow. I lead with a pot size bet. BB thinks and calls. Limper raises with another pot size bet.

Whats your move?

fuzzbox

You appear to be holding both the button and the SB.

I pass this hand most often.

djkeogh

it's a tough flop to call. What with the reads you have on these players you have no clue what they might have. chances are there's an ace out there leaving 1 for the straight and the re-raise is there to scare you off. nothing to say he doesn't have the nuts though. With 2 pair there with a chance for a house i'm calling this and backing down if the turn doesn't help you out and there is another big bet.

fuzzbox

I also dont complete with this in the SB.

padser

Looking at the hands that are beating you.
33 44 55 (8 hands in total), and these are the only hands that leave you really drawing very thin.

A2 67 26 (48 hands in total) and if you were to go all in here you would win around one sixth (four outs) (although some of the times further down you are ahead and will loose so ill discount this)

Also lets include 53 and 54 ( 32 hands)

This means in total there are 88 hands that could reasonably make this play and be ahead.

Now lets look at the hands that could make this play and be behind.

66 - AA (54 hands) but lets be conservitive and say you would only do it with 10 10 - AA ( 36 hands)

23 24 25 65 64 63 (one pair and open ended straight draw) (76 hands - i think iv adjusted it for fact you hold a 3 and a 4)

5A 5K (top pair high/top kicker) (32 hands)

You could prob include 3x 4x 5x because from his point of view it could be a bet to drive out the potential straight draws by not giving them the odds.

So conservitively he could make this play with 144 hands u are beating, and 88 that are beating you.

So it looks like a pretty def call

Jaden

Nor do I. This kind of play just gets you into trouble. You have bottom 2 pair. This may be good enough, but you can't get any information unless you bet at least the pot on the flop. Now you're investing money blind into a pot. Any caller is getting 2:1 on his money.

Looking at this hand specifically, what do the limper/BB have? Preflop, loose limper could have anything. suited connectors, small PP or A,x. BB could be the same. With that flop, to call a pot-sized bet, or to raise, you are most likely looking at small PP - 66 is likely for an open-ended straight. This is what I would put the limper on. The BB has A,x, possibly hitting a pair on the board. 6,7 is an outside chance, and you should be wary of it.

I would call this bet on the flop, and try and get to the river cheaply. Better to win small pots than to loose big ones, esp when you don't know where you stand.

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

definite call - no raises preflop indicates relatively weak hands (obviously!). You are probably against some sort of draw, or A-5. I'd say you're against a similarly thrashy hand like your own - something like 5-6, or 4-6, A-5.

ianmc38

Ok, well I was using a quick version of Padsers logic and called. But then, the bb raised and the limper then reraised all-in.

I folded and the BB called. Limper showed A2 for a made straight and the BB showed 55 for top set and didnt improve.

Thought it was an interesting hand to play and analyse.

fuzzbox

Jaden wrote:

I would call this bet on the flop, and try and get to the river cheaply. Better to win small pots than to loose big ones, esp when you don't know where you stand.

This is interesting.

1. do you believe you are ahead often enough to play this hand?
1-A - Yes - you should push
1-B - No - you should fold

2. how do you plan to try to get to the river cheap when out of position Vs two players?

Please dont take my comments as being harsh (as they might sound harsh). I am trying to point out that there are some fatal flaws in your strategy of smooth calling this bet on the flop in the hopes of getting to a cheap river.

I fold bottom two after I have led pot, gotten called and raised. Lay it down.

fuzzbox

Roundtower2 wrote:

definite call - no raises preflop indicates relatively weak hands (obviously!). You are probably against some sort of draw, or A-5. I'd say you're against a similarly thrashy hand like your own - something like 5-6, or 4-6, A-5.

No raises preflop indicate relatively weak hands (preflop)

A pot sized call, and a pot sized raise indicate relatively strong hands postflop. This is important.

padser

fuzzbox wrote:

I fold bottom two after I have led pot, gotten called and raised. Lay it down.

Cant agree. If you factor in that the correct play here from the limper if he has an over pair, a set of 5's or a made straight then its incorrect to fold. There are just far too many hands that you are leading at this point that could make the play. (as above 144 v 88).

Note, i would say a lay down in tournament situation would be fine especially if you were in healthy position and limper had you covered. However in a cash to lay down here is giving up EV imo

AmarilloFats

fuzzbox wrote:

This is interesting.

1. do you believe you are ahead often enough to play this hand?
1-A - Yes - you should push
1-B - No - you should fold

2. how do you plan to try to get to the river cheap when out of position Vs two players?

Please dont take my comments as being harsh (as they might sound harsh). I am trying to point out that there are some fatal flaws in your strategy of smooth calling this bet on the flop in the hopes of getting to a cheap river.

I fold bottom two after I have led pot, gotten called and raised. Lay it down.

I fold under these circumstances 99%.

fuzzbox

padser wrote:

Cant agree. If you factor in that the correct play here from the limper if he has an over pair, a set of 5's or a made straight then its incorrect to fold. There are just far too many hands that you are leading at this point that could make the play. (as above 144 v 88).

Note, i would say a lay down in tournament situation would be fine especially if you were in healthy position and limper had you covered. However in a cash to lay down here is giving up EV imo

First - There are two other players in this hand, not just one.
Second - you are out of position
Third - its very difficult for you to make any further money from worse hands (assuming opponents are any good)
Fourth - you do not close the action
Fifth - When you are ahead you are usually not massively ahead (consider 65 or AA)
Sixth - When you are behind you are usually drawing very thin/dead (either 4 outs (max) or running perfect cards (min)

If you are up against one player then the following could reasonably be your expected return:

Board: 5h 4s 3d
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.5203 % 50.38% 03.14% { 22+, 86s, 76s, 62s+, 53s+, 43s, 76o, 62o+, 53o+, 43o }
Hand 2: 46.4797 % 43.34% 03.14% { 43o }




But wait .... what if the other guy wants to play, and he has a similar range...

Board: 5h 4s 3d
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 35.8599 % 32.06% 03.80% { 22+, 86s, 76s, 62s+, 53s+, 43s, 76o, 62o+, 53o+, 43o }
Hand 2: 28.2803 % 26.25% 02.03% { 43o }
Hand 3: 35.8599 % 32.06% 03.80% { 22+, 86s, 76s, 62s+, 53s+, 43s, 76o, 62o+, 53o+, 43o }

So already you are a loser for the hand ... but wait theres more...
What if the other guy wants to play, but he wont play without the better hands in this range (aka he folds 77-JJ).


Board: 5h 4s 3d
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 32.7903 % 28.48% 04.31% { 22+, 86s, 76s, 62s+, 53s+, 43s, 76o, 62o+, 53o+, 43o }
Hand 2: 25.5016 % 23.43% 02.07% { 43o }
Hand 3: 41.7081 % 37.12% 04.59% { QQ+, 66-22, 86s, 76s, 62s+, 53s+, 43s, 76o, 62o+, 53o+, 43o }


Oh oh ... now we lose even more ... but wait ... what if player two will NEVER have AA/KK/QQ in this spot ... which is not unreasonable.

Board: 5h 4s 3d
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 30.1799 % 25.39% 04.79% { 22+, 86s, 76s, 62s+, 53s+, 43s, 76o, 62o+, 53o+, 43o }
Hand 2: 23.0114 % 20.93% 02.08% { 43o }
Hand 3: 46.8087 % 41.48% 05.33% { 66-22, 86s, 76s, 62s+, 53s+, 43s, 76o, 62o+, 53o+, 43o }

.... now we losing 10% of our stack everytime we get all in here (Vs two opponents).

But what if the 2nd guy folds, but the other guy will only call a push with the better hands (aka not 77-JJ).

Board: 5h 4s 3d
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 59.5981 % 56.17% 03.43% { QQ+, 66-22, 86s, 76s, 62s+, 53s+, 43s, 76o, 62o+, 53o+, 43o }
Hand 2: 40.4019 % 36.97% 03.43% { 43o }

Ooops - we lose nearly 20% of our stack each time.

This is not a good spot. Your analysis is too simplistic. Sure we might be ahead of a lot of those 144 hands, but we are not very far ahead (aka we get outdrawn a lot), but we are very far behind those 88 hands that we are behind.

marius

Well,
I guess you learn something every day - for me I would be trying to get it all in after this flop......

fuzzbox

padser wrote:

Cant agree. If you factor in that the correct play here from the limper if he has an over pair, a set of 5's or a made straight then its incorrect to fold. There are just far too many hands that you are leading at this point that could make the play. (as above 144 v 88).

Note, i would say a lay down in tournament situation would be fine especially if you were in healthy position and limper had you covered. However in a cash to lay down here is giving up EV imo

For the record - if you believe that it is +EV then you should play it regardless of whether it is a tourney or a cash game. +EV is +EV and should not be shunned in either place.

Fact is, that bottom two on such a co-ordinated board, facing action from two other players, does not rate to be such a great hand at the end.

Jaden

The real answer is that I would never be in this hand to begin with. If I was, I would find it impossible on the flop to know where I stood. I have bottom 2 pair, with 4 outs to a nut hand. Wroth seeing cheaply. I would fold to any decent bet. The action on the flop doesn't say alot, and the smooth call might slow the other two down.

AmarilloFats

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054873935

This is a hand Shortstack played a while ago..He had top2

padser

fuzzbox wrote:

For the record - if you believe that it is +EV then you should play it regardless of whether it is a tourney or a cash game. +EV is +EV and should not be shunned in either place.

For the record EV is not the only thing to think about in a tournament situation. You need to factor in the chances of busting out. For example you may need to pass up some EV because it is simply to dangerous to play it.


In answer to the rest of it. I dont use programs like that as i dont have any. I just take out my trusty calculator and start jotting down figures so bear with me, i could be worng.

Does your analaysis include A5 and K5? Both possibilities imo
Does your analaysis take into account that 33 and 44 are much less probable then 66+?

Your are of course correct that my analaysis does not take into account that you are playing against two players. That is a flaw.

cardshark202

padser wrote:

For the record EV is not the only thing to think about in a tournament situation. You need to factor in the chances of busting out. For example you may need to pass up some EV because it is simply to dangerous to play it.

Wrong. Unless you like finishing around the bubble.

Hectorjelly

I think this is a really simple fold.

ianmc38

Hectorjelly wrote:

I think this is a really simple fold.

To the initial raise or after the BB reraise?

padser

cardshark202 wrote:

Wrong. Unless you like finishing around the bubble.

Well its one of the theories Slansky puts forward in his book on tournament poker. From personal experience in tounraments i find that passing up low EV high risk situations is essential, and is especially good in reducing your variances.

Hectorjelly

ianmc38 wrote:

To the initial raise or after the BB reraise?

Flat call by BB then raise by limper = you dont have the best hand