Folding the nuts in PLO

Benglian

An interesting situation that crops up from time to time....
Have the nuts (a crap straight) with no redraws on the turn, check it out the BB, a bet and a raise back to me.
Not sure if i should stick it in or fold!
I mean i could conceivably be betting to get a third of the pot with people freerolling on nearly every card out there (6,8,9,any club, any heart, any pair up) and I'm out of position against a player with cash, and after all it only cost me a BB so far.

I don't like it.

But folding the nuts....?

Hmmm....

Opinions?

HH below
****************************************************
POKERSTARS GAME #3767356226: OMAHA POT LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2006/01/26 - 22:15:22 (ET)
Table 'Rhea' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: jdamnl ($216.80 in chips)
Seat 2: j-daddy ($221.70 in chips)
Seat 3: Rigged_Flops ($200 in chips)
Seat 4: lgRHINO ($335.75 in chips)
Seat 5: ME ($198 in chips)
Seat 6: brooks4444 ($54.35 in chips)
Seat 7: tr4300 ($178.30 in chips)
Seat 8: EZ EARLE ($115.45 in chips)
Seat 9: mln777 ($265.35 in chips)
lgRHINO: posts small blind $1
Benglian: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ME [6c 2h 8s 6d]
brooks4444: calls $2
tr4300: calls $2
EZ EARLE: folds
mln777: calls $2
jdamnl: calls $2
j-daddy: calls $2
Rigged_Flops: folds
lgRHINO: calls $1
Benglian: checks
*** FLOP *** [5c 2c 7h]
lgRHINO: checks
ME: checks
brooks4444: checks
tr4300: checks
mln777: checks
jdamnl: checks
j-daddy: checks
*** TURN *** [5c 2c 7h] [4h]
lgRHINO: checks
ME: checks
brooks4444: bets $10
tr4300: raises $33.30 to $43.30
mln777: folds
jdamnl: folds
j-daddy: folds
lgRHINO: folds

To me....

Degag

I'd stick it in definatly.... you have to go with it and tough luck if you get unlucky.....

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

Its an interesting situation - obviously you should always stick in your money when you are ahead (like you probably are now). I think the specific problem here is that you are worried about losing your money. If you are worried about losing your money then you are probably playing for too high stakes.

You probably wouldn't be as worried about being outdrawn if you were playing for lesser stakes.

fixer

2 options:

re-raise all-in or quit omaha.

DapperGent

There is no way in hell you have the needed information to drop the nuts here. That would be tight/stupid.

fuzzbox

DapperGent wrote:

There is no way in hell you have the needed information to drop the nuts here. That would be tight/stupid.

What precise information do you need in order to drop the nuts then?

for the record, Im not necessarily advocating a fold in this spot.

I do think, however, that ignoring the evidence that is presented to you is usually not good in PLO.

fuzzbox

fixer wrote:

2 options:

re-raise all-in or quit omaha.

You have many more options than this.

1. Fold
2. Call
3. Raise all-in
4. Continue playing omaha
5. Quit playing omaha
6. Continue to play omaha, but only play omaha/8
7. Start playing limit omaha

Lots of options. None should be discounted blindly.

fuzzbox

Tackle69 wrote:

I'd stick it in definatly.... you have to go with it and tough luck if you get unlucky.....

Why do you have to go with it?

fuzzbox

Roundtower2 wrote:

Obviously you should always stick in your money when you are ahead (like you probably are now).

This is a common fallacy.

You should stick your money in when you are favourite (or if you are getting correct pot odds in order to hit your hand if you are behind). It doesnt matter who is ahead right now. This is especially true in PLO.

Rodge

I dont see how you can fold here.

What I also dont see here is your strategy for the hand. Checking the nuts in early position when you dont seem to have the intention of checkraising has to be some sort of sin. It smells like scared poker to me.

If you're so worried about your nuts being cracked then flat call and fold to any scare card

5starpool

fuzzbox wrote:

Why do you have to go with it?

Do you play Omaha fuzzbox? If so, you must need some cards to bet if you don't agree this is a must raise situation.

fuzzbox

5starpool wrote:

Do you play Omaha fuzzbox? If so, you must need some cards to bet if you don't agree this is a must raise situation.

Yes I sure do play PLO.

I dont agree that its a *must*, but in the end having 66 in my hand would make me feel like I probably should get it in.

This is a situation where you can be getting freerolled by one player, and another could have a pretty big draw too. If one guy has the nuts + one flush draw and the other has a set and/or the other flush draw, then its not so hot for us.

Also - what do you think they have to be betting and raising like that?

I'd fold if I believed that the pot raiser had the nuts, as I would be putting all my chips in the pot, just to get them back (maybe).

I would prefer betting the turn, then if the 2nd guy raised and the 3rd guy got all-in then I could muck. If guy 2 called and the 3rd guy raised, then I could probably fold.
As played, I dont know the best play.

Getting all your money in with the nut-str8 and no redraws loses a lot of players a lot of money in PLO.

Hectorjelly

Those who are saying you should never fold the nuts in omaha are entirely wrong. In this case however, because you are on the turn and you have 2 6's in your hand I would stick it all in.

Benglian

Now I know how to play Omaha and my thoughts were this.
I checked the turn to see where I was. I don't like two flush draws out against me and maybe I could see the river for free and bet/fold according to the final card.
No I am not 'scared' in this hand, I am trying to maximise my wins and minimise losses.
The first few comment of the 'Raise all-in or quit Omaha, because you have the current nuts' variety were naive at best.
Ciaffone lays out a hand in his definitive Omaha book where it is possible to have the nuts on the flop, and yet still have only one out to actually take the hand down by the river.
In Omaha the current nuts is not what wins a hand, but the best hand at showdown.

Now remember I did this on the fly at decision time so I am quantifying it more than I did instictively at the time but :
I reasoned following the action to me that there were both flush draws out, whether nut or not. There was also an 80% chance that at least one person had the same hand as me, and maybe a 10-20% chance that they both did.
And there was probably two pair or trips out there as well.
I cannot call.
My position is such that i would be obliged to fold to almost any scare card, and a decent player would bet any scare card into me with position.
It is my first hand at the table so in fact I have no information on the other players.

Fuzzbox said :
I would prefer betting the turn, then if the 2nd guy raised and the 3rd guy got all-in then I could muck. If guy 2 called and the 3rd guy raised, then I could probably fold.
As played, I dont know the best play.

My check was a bet of nothing, and i gain the same information for it as a pot bet on my part, but cheaper.

I am trying to figure out how to maximise my EV here remember.

Now to the specific situation.

If both players have the current nuts, and both flush draws are out there, and a set, my EV is 0.13 (per cardplayer.com) This could happen 10-20% of the time maybe.
If I am only up against one other nut hand, but still the fl draws and say two pair my EV rises to a massine 0.264, and that at least 80% of the time.

My bet is gonna be 0.33 I think. I am no mathematician, but it's not looking good.

One player is sitting on $120 in chips still, and I would have to check/laydown to any heart, club, or 2,3,4,5,6,7,8.

I fold, lose my $2 and look for a better spot.

BTW I wrote this on the fly at work whilst doing a million other things at the same time, so excuse me if it's not very coherent!

RoundTower

Benglian wrote:

Fuzzbox said :
I would prefer betting the turn, then if the 2nd guy raised and the 3rd guy got all-in then I could muck. If guy 2 called and the 3rd guy raised, then I could probably fold.
As played, I dont know the best play.

My check was a bet of nothing, and i gain the same information for it as a pot bet on my part, but cheaper.

What? You bet and someone raises and the third player reraises. Both players have shown quite a lot of strength, and there is a good chance they both have the nuts and you are being freerolled.

You check, someone bets and the next player raises. The first bettor could easily have nothing or a single flush draw+gutshot or two pair, after all no one has shown interest so far. The second player probably has something more, but could well be making a move on the first player as well.

I don't agree with checking or betting "to see where you are", but in this case checking certainly doesn't get you the same amount of information as betting. Also it is worse because it doesn't get more money into the pot when you are ahead.

For the record I think this is definitely somewhere you can consider folding the nuts. If the second player is a rock fold, otherwise get it all in.

sprocket1

so what did you do?

Fatboydim

It's an obvious fold to me. First thing I want to know is why you played the hand in the first place. I'd have mucked it. - After all even if you hit a set with the sixes the majority of time there'll be a bigger set out there or a straight or a flush by the river.

Having said that ... you called and it's only €2. And surely that's the point. Omaha is a drawing game. It's got sod all to do with what you have on the flop unless you hit a royal or a poker. Anything else you hit on the flop is temporary.

As I see it you had one heart and one club... so assuming that they are not both on the same draw you have two players drawing to 8 cards each. So straight away 16 cards that can beat you. This is increased if one of them also has a 6 or an 8 with a 9 - though you'd have to say that's unlikely. If any of the two players have sets then they have up to nine outs each. [you have a 2 so most likely 8 outs each unless one has trip twos] So you can figure that of the 36 cards unknown in the deck maybe as many as twenty are going to beat you.

Then looking at the players... Brooks who bets out first is short stacked at $54... would he really risk a bet of $10 without a big draw or a made hand? Maybe... but when all you've risked is two bucks why worry... Better opportunities.

Benglian

FBD just to be clear it was my first hand at the table and i was in the Big Blind. Of course I would never call a bet with this pile of junk.

The result was.

*** TURN *** [5c 2c 7h] [4h]
lgRHINO: checks
Benglian: checks
brooks4444: bets $10
tr4300: raises $33.30 to $43.30
mln777: folds
jdamnl: folds
j-daddy: folds
lgRHINO: folds
Benglian: calls $43.30
brooks4444: raises $9.05 to $52.35 and is all-in
tr4300: calls $9.05
Benglian: calls $9.05
*** RIVER *** [5c 2c 7h 4h] [Kh]
Benglian: checks
tr4300: bets $123.95 and is all-in
Benglian: folds
*** SHOW DOWN ***
tr4300: shows [Qh Ah 3s 3h] (a flush, Ace high)
brooks4444: mucks hand
tr4300 collected $168.05 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $171.05 | Rake $3
Board [5c 2c 7h 4h Kh]
Seat 1: jdamnl folded on the Turn
Seat 2: j-daddy folded on the Turn
Seat 3: Rigged_Flops (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: lgRHINO (small blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 5: Benglian (big blind) folded on the River
Seat 6: brooks4444 mucked [6s 4s 8h 3d]
Seat 7: tr4300 showed [Qh Ah 3s 3h] and won ($168.05) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 8: EZ EARLE folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: mln777 folded on the Turn

So these are the muppet plays that dimish my stack.
I must try to eliminate them.
It was a clear fold in my opinion.

cardshark202

Benglian wrote:

FBD just to be clear it was my first hand at the table and i was in the Big Blind. Of course I would never call a bet with this pile of junk.

The result was.

*** TURN *** [5c 2c 7h] [4h]
lgRHINO: checks
Benglian: checks
brooks4444: bets $10
tr4300: raises $33.30 to $43.30
mln777: folds
jdamnl: folds
j-daddy: folds
lgRHINO: folds
Benglian: calls $43.30
brooks4444: raises $9.05 to $52.35 and is all-in
tr4300: calls $9.05
Benglian: calls $9.05
*** RIVER *** [5c 2c 7h 4h] [Kh]
Benglian: checks
tr4300: bets $123.95 and is all-in
Benglian: folds
*** SHOW DOWN ***
tr4300: shows [Qh Ah 3s 3h] (a flush, Ace high)
brooks4444: mucks hand
tr4300 collected $168.05 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $171.05 | Rake $3
Board [5c 2c 7h 4h Kh]
Seat 1: jdamnl folded on the Turn
Seat 2: j-daddy folded on the Turn
Seat 3: Rigged_Flops (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: lgRHINO (small blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 5: Benglian (big blind) folded on the River
Seat 6: brooks4444 mucked [6s 4s 8h 3d]
Seat 7: tr4300 showed [Qh Ah 3s 3h] and won ($168.05) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 8: EZ EARLE folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: mln777 folded on the Turn

So these are the muppet plays that dimish my stack.
I must try to eliminate them.
It was a clear fold in my opinion.

Huh? I hope you're not implying that it was a clear fold because you were sucked out on. It's a clear fold if you think the other two are freerolling but if you saw the holecards of both the players is fairly easy call. If muppets are making moves like this all the time then folding the nuts would be terrible.

RoundTower

Benglian wrote:

Benglian: calls $43.30

*** RIVER *** [5c 2c 7h 4h] [Kh]
Benglian: checks
tr4300: bets $123.95 and is all-in
Benglian: folds
So these are the muppet plays that dimish my stack.
I must try to eliminate them.
It was a clear fold in my opinion.

You realised that you didn't want to play the river out of position against this guy with money still to play. If you wanted to play you should have reraised all in and you would have been a substantial money favourite.

edit: I've a hand from tonight I've been thinking about, I'll put it in another thread, but this thread inspired me to post it as it's kind of related.

fuzzbox

Benglian wrote:

FBD just to be clear it was my first hand at the table and i was in the Big Blind. Of course I would never call a bet with this pile of junk.

The result was.

*** TURN *** [5c 2c 7h] [4h]
lgRHINO: checks
Benglian: checks
brooks4444: bets $10
tr4300: raises $33.30 to $43.30
mln777: folds
jdamnl: folds
j-daddy: folds
lgRHINO: folds
Benglian: calls $43.30
brooks4444: raises $9.05 to $52.35 and is all-in
tr4300: calls $9.05
Benglian: calls $9.05
*** RIVER *** [5c 2c 7h 4h] [Kh]
Benglian: checks
tr4300: bets $123.95 and is all-in
Benglian: folds
*** SHOW DOWN ***
tr4300: shows [Qh Ah 3s 3h] (a flush, Ace high)
brooks4444: mucks hand
tr4300 collected $168.05 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $171.05 | Rake $3
Board [5c 2c 7h 4h Kh]
Seat 1: jdamnl folded on the Turn
Seat 2: j-daddy folded on the Turn
Seat 3: Rigged_Flops (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: lgRHINO (small blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 5: Benglian (big blind) folded on the River
Seat 6: brooks4444 mucked [6s 4s 8h 3d]
Seat 7: tr4300 showed [Qh Ah 3s 3h] and won ($168.05) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 8: EZ EARLE folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: mln777 folded on the Turn

So these are the muppet plays that dimish my stack.
I must try to eliminate them.
It was a clear fold in my opinion.

Ouch ...

If you have decided to play, then your correct move is to push all-in.
As it turns out tr4300 is a muppet, and you should have gotten all-in right there.

Fatboydim

Benglian wrote:

FBD just to be clear it was my first hand at the table and i was in the Big Blind. Of course I would never call a bet with this pile of junk.
.

LOL that explains that then... I wondered why... As for the guys who still think you should have pushed all in... That only works if you think the player is going to fold... [because the maths in this case are in the favour of the players drawing.. Benglian is unable to improve] ... which in this case he wouldn't as the way the hand has been played he is not going to read anyone for the made straight other than the guy who bet the tenner. So with two dollars invested it's a fold.

RoundTower

Fatboydim wrote:

LOL that explains that then... I wondered why... As for the guys who still think you should have pushed all in... That only works if you think the player is going to fold... [because the maths in this case are in the favour of the players drawing.. Benglian is unable to improve] ... which in this case he wouldn't as the way the hand has been played he is not going to read anyone for the made straight other than the guy who bet the tenner. So with two dollars invested it's a fold.

Wow.

Actually the odds are in favour of Benglian. He has the nut straight and the other player has the nut flush draw with one card to come. And this idea that he's only invested two dollars so he should fold is really stupid. There is $65 in the pot and it doesn't matter whether he put up $2 of it or $65 of it.

Fatboydim

Ok lets ask someone who really knows their stuff. This was posted on the Hendon mob site:

In a game of PL omaha recently I was dealt 7 8 J Q with 2 clubs. I limped in and there were 3 others in with me.

The flop came down A K 10 with 2 hearts and 1 club. I was first to act and bet the pot. The next guy raised the pot, and the guy after him re-raised it! I thought about it for a little while and decided to fold, even though I had the temporary nuts. Do you think I made the right choice?

In the actual hand, the 2 others both got it all in on the flop, one had a set of aces and a small heart flush draw and the other had the nut straight with a higher heart flush draw. The turn and river were both blanks and the guy with the nut straight won. Had I stayed in, I would have got half of the other guys stack. Ah well, we live and learn. I think it was a close decision though, and I think a lot of the time I would have been outdrawn. What do you think?

To which Barny replied [I'm sure he won't mind me lifting it.]

This is exactly the kind of situation in which you routinely pass the nuts in Omaha. You would want to be up against two sets with neither holding the straight to play your hand here and that is highly unlikely.
It's not even a close decision unless you are short stacked. Dump it. Cash Omaha is a game of nuts with outs.
It would be even worse if you had a smaller nut straight with no outs for a higher onebut in any case it is not a winning strategy to call for a split or a loss.

Plus a further reply:

I just ran this through the hendonmob calculator. Although I may not have the exact hands I used all the info you give. Your odds were 20.82%, Trip Aces: 34.41%, nuts with higher flush draw: 44.75%. ...and if only one of them is on hearts youe odds go down to about 17%

I'm with Barny and Benglian still... FOLD.

cardshark202

Fatboydim wrote:

Ok lets ask someone who really knows their stuff. This was posted on the Hendon mob site:

In a game of PL omaha recently I was dealt 7 8 J Q with 2 clubs. I limped in and there were 3 others in with me.

The flop came down A K 10 with 2 hearts and 1 club. I was first to act and bet the pot. The next guy raised the pot, and the guy after him re-raised it! I thought about it for a little while and decided to fold, even though I had the temporary nuts. Do you think I made the right choice?

In the actual hand, the 2 others both got it all in on the flop, one had a set of aces and a small heart flush draw and the other had the nut straight with a higher heart flush draw. The turn and river were both blanks and the guy with the nut straight won. Had I stayed in, I would have got half of the other guys stack. Ah well, we live and learn. I think it was a close decision though, and I think a lot of the time I would have been outdrawn. What do you think?

To which Barny replied [I'm sure he won't mind me lifting it.]

This is exactly the kind of situation in which you routinely pass the nuts in Omaha. You would want to be up against two sets with neither holding the straight to play your hand here and that is highly unlikely.
It's not even a close decision unless you are short stacked. Dump it. Cash Omaha is a game of nuts with outs.
It would be even worse if you had a smaller nut straight with no outs for a higher onebut in any case it is not a winning strategy to call for a split or a loss.

Plus a further reply:

I just ran this through the hendonmob calculator. Although I may not have the exact hands I used all the info you give. Your odds were 20.82%, Trip Aces: 34.41%, nuts with higher flush draw: 44.75%. ...and if only one of them is on hearts youe odds go down to about 17%

I'm with Barny and Benglian still... FOLD.

You really should think harder before posting this. The stuff you just posted bears little relevance to this hand. In benglian's case, he has the nuts with ONE card to come, not two.

Also, in benglian's case had was holding 2 sixes, which lowers the chance of both players holding the nut straight which will mean you are at least playing for half of one players money. It's also unlikely that either player is holding a set(since noone bet the flop) which means at the very worst you're up against 2 flush draws. You are still a favourite over this with ONE card to come.

There are many situations where folding the nuts in omaha IS the correct play, but not in this case.

RoundTower

Fatboydim wrote:

I'm with Barny and Benglian still... FOLD.

This is very, very stupid.

I actually asked Barry Greenstein his opinion instead, because I don't trust Barny's judgement. Unfortunately I couldn't remember the hand exactly, but I put it like this.

"My hand was KK4A with the ace suited in diamonds. The flop came down K44, one guy bet, the next guy raised, and the third guy went all in! I called, was this correct? After all I have no redraws and anyone with 56 of hearts can make a straight flush!"

Barry said:

"It's OK, you should call. Please stop wasting my time."

So there you are. Calling is actually the correct play. If you run the numbers for Benglian's hand you will find that if you raise all in and get called you make on average almost exactly $100.

Fatboydim

I have to think harder and I'm very very stupid... Thanks guys. I'm very much in the school of thought that better opportunities present themselves... But that's largely because I'm a tournament player rather than a cash game player. In a tournament situation there's no doubt I fold. You're obviously more experienced in cash games than I am so I'm sure you'd push. If we all played poker the same it would be a very boring game. Thank god we don't.