Hiding a Monster Hand.

Jaden · 27-01-2006 9:26am #1

Taken from a pub tourney I played during the week.

It's the final table, four players left, everyone has made the money. I'm 2nd in chips, but there isn't alot between the top 3 players, one guy is short stacked. Blinds are 3000/6000, with about 120K in play. I'm on the BB with J2s. Button limps, SB (small stack, calling station) completes. I check.

Flop comes 6,J,J. I minimum bet 6K. Button calls, SB folds.
Turn is a J. I now have the STONE COLD NUTS.

I have about 25K left, Button has 20K left. I thinking "how do I extract maximum chips out of this hand?"

The button looks like he's sitting on rusty thumbtacks. I thought he was going to raise pre-flop, but just called. I thought he was going to re-raise post flop, but he smooth called. The pain currently on this guys face is obvious. He's not a bad player at all, generally solid, and agressive when he has to be.

I bet 12K, nearly half my remaining stack, into a pot of 30K. Button agonizes for a few minutes and folds. I show the J, and the railbirds erupt into a chorus of "Why the hell didn't you check?".

My flop bet was designed to feign weakness, as if I was saying "I have a weak hand, but that's a scary flop, I'm trying to steal". The vast majority of people check top set on the flop, but I like to bet out small sometimes, just to put people off the scent.

The turn bet was designed to look like a steal. He has 20K left, with 42K in the pot, there are good calling odds if he thinks I don't have the Jack. If I had, wouldn't I have checked the flop? I think he has AQ or even A6. If he calls and wins, he is chip leader.

I see nothing wrong in particular with this play. I could have checked the turn and river to see if he bet out, but I have a feeling that unless he hit an A on the river, I was going to be checked down. If I was the button, and he was first to act, maybe I would have checked the turn, as I can be sure of a bet on the river. As it stands I think taking a chance in getting him to push was a better approach, given my read of this guy. Afterwards he said he was an inch from pushing, he just lost the nerve.

What would you guys have done?

fuzzbox · 27-01-2006 9:30am

Your 12k bet makes it hard for him to move OTT with a hand like AK or AQ, because it looks like you are pretty committed.

If you check, he can put some chips in the pot, as it looks like you might have a weakish hand, and could lay it down to some pressure.

Since he only has 20k left, you want to make him believe that he can take the 18k pot with a bet.

Check is clearly correct.
Betting the flop was pretty good.

Waylander · 27-01-2006 10:36am

I agree with fuzzbox in that 12K made you committed to the pot, but I do not think he would have bet into you anyway, so I think betting was probably the way to go if you were to get any action, although I may have just min bet again hoping to string him along.

Degag · 27-01-2006 10:43am

I got quite lucky at the weekend as such... i got quad 7s on the turn... kept on betting small ammounts until last round when i went all in... he called with pocket 10's... probably shouldn't have although if i remember correctly, there wasn't a higher card on the board.... didn't make that much though as he was relatively short stacked.

Gholimoli · 27-01-2006 10:56am

The 12K bet on turn shows that your committed to the pot as others stated.
Whether it’s a bluff or not the point is he is not going to call or make a move on you with nothing.
Because on turn there is only one other card that is not a J on the board, I would give a chance to catch up here on the river by just checking. he may catch up on the river or he may decide to make a move for it which is your best chance of getting anything more out of him.
But in general I don’t think there is right way or wrong way of playing a hand like that.
Your very very unlikely to get paid as there very little on the board that could help your opponents.

Samba · 27-01-2006 12:21pm

I think the advice the railbirds were shouting at you was correct.

Bet out the flop and then checking the turn makes it look like a steal on the flop and then plain fear of the board on the turn when you check indicates weakness and a desire not to lose your stack, you are indicating that you are throwing in the towel by checking.

You will often find people will try to take a stab at the pot when checked to them in this situation.

If he checks behind you, he gets a chance to improve his hand and you can feign weakness and go 6k again at least you are getting more chips than simply betting out the turn.

If you bet on the turn and he folds you instantly lose the opportunity to extract more chips, by checking he can catch up and you increase your chances of extracting further chips.

I would have acted exactly like the villain did in this hand, like i was uncomfortable playing the hand.

Jaden · 27-01-2006 2:38pm

The turn, to check or not to check.
I felt that a 2nd bet out would look like I'm commited, but I don't have a Jack. That's what I wanted him to think.

At best he has two overcards, and so in his mind, 6 outs, and that assuming I have hit a 6 or small PP (unlikely as I raise on the BB with small PP shorthanded, he knows this.)

He's ahead of a bluff, which he HAS to think I'm on.

If he doesn't improve on the river he'll chuck to any bet. He will bet if he does improve, but 6 outs, 44 cards left, leaves this at a worse than 1 in 7 chance.

So I weighed up the two sides. Bet to get a call (I gave him nearly a 50/50 to call or push my 12K bet), or give a 1/7 chance to improve, knowing that a bet then is very likely.

Showing the Jack after his fold really messed the table up. Nobody knew what to think when I got into a hand. They were afraid of checks, and scared ****less of bets.

Samba · 27-01-2006 2:50pm

While yes I would be in agreement, there is somthing i don't understand with your line of thinking.

You are trying to give him the impression that you are on the steal/bluffing.

Yet you don't give him a chance to find out?

I don't like calling off half my stack with a view that the villain is bluffing or risking coming back over the top you need a confident read to do so, I would much rather bet to find out than call, re-raise all in, very risky move

ianmc38 · 27-01-2006 2:58pm

Personally I favour the continution bet on the turn, albeit a smaller one. Currently reading Harringtons book and his advice is to play the way you'd normally play a big hand(as i'd have thought anyway, as I regularly analyse peoples betting patterns). Dont change your betting pattern. if you're generally aggressive and like to place continuation bets, checking this turn will signal an obvious monster (to anyone watching closely enough). I bet my regular bets on all streets in this example

Samba · 27-01-2006 3:15pm

ianmc38 wrote:

Personally I favour the continution bet on the turn, albeit a smaller one. Currently reading Harringtons book and his advice is to play the way you'd normally play a big hand(as i'd have thought anyway, as I regularly analyse peoples betting patterns). Dont change your betting pattern. if you're generally aggressive and like to place continuation bets, checking this turn will signal an obvious monster (to anyone watching closely enough). I bet my regular bets on all streets in this example

The whole point is that Jaden is trying to give the impression that he is bluffing, by betting in the manner that you have bet every hand you are giving him no reads, Jaden wants to give him a false read.

This will be practically impossible by not changing your betting patterns.

Personally I would play the same hand 10 different ways, then betting patterns become irrelevant, if there simply is no pattern.

NickyOD · 27-01-2006 3:17pm

I play it the same way but I think your oponent folded AK not a pair, so if I read him for AK I check the turn.

Jaden · 27-01-2006 3:18pm

I thought I gave him a chance on the flop with the minimum bet out.

Imagine you are him. (It's what I tried to do). You limp with AQ/A6/KQ/Small PP UTG. BB checks. Flop pairs and you have two overcards. BB is first to act, and min bets. You call. You're sure he ain't got trips, because nobody is dumb enough to bet trips. He might have a 6 though, but he'd bet more if he did, probably even push to make you make the decision.

Turn is a J. If he didn't have trips, he can't have quads. You must now be in front if he doesn't have a 6. If you think he has a 6, there is no way your're going to put money into this pot, unless you hit on the river. He's bet 12K into you. He is committed into this pot, but hasn't pushed. Doesn't want to look too deperate? There's now 42K in the pot, - a quarter of all the chips in play. It's 1:00am. Folding now leaves you with 4BB, and the blinds will be here in 2 hands. Pushing an winning makes you a comfy chip leader. The security blanket of already being in the money soothes you.

Time to make a stand.

Samba · 27-01-2006 3:28pm

Time to make a stand

I totally agree and as you say he almost came back over the top, I think you may well make his decision for him by checking the turn.

It is very much a "what if" question.... the only way you will get your answer is for you to explore different ways to play the hand and adopt the method which best suits your style of play/table image.

fuzzbox · 27-01-2006 3:53pm

Jaden wrote:

I thought I gave him a chance on the flop with the minimum bet out.

Imagine you are him. (It's what I tried to do). You limp with AQ/A6/KQ/Small PP UTG. BB checks. Flop pairs and you have two overcards. BB is first to act, and min bets. You call. You're sure he ain't got trips, because nobody is dumb enough to bet trips. He might have a 6 though, but he'd bet more if he did, probably even push to make you make the decision.

Turn is a J. If he didn't have trips, he can't have quads. You must now be in front if he doesn't have a 6. If you think he has a 6, there is no way your're going to put money into this pot, unless you hit on the river. He's bet 12K into you. He is committed into this pot, but hasn't pushed. Doesn't want to look too deperate? There's now 42K in the pot, - a quarter of all the chips in play. It's 1:00am. Folding now leaves you with 4BB, and the blinds will be here in 2 hands. Pushing an winning makes you a comfy chip leader. The security blanket of already being in the money soothes you.

Time to make a stand.

By betting the turn, you suggest that you have a pair. If he knows that you are not folding, and he doesnt have a pair, then he has to fold.

If you check the turn, you suggest that you do not have a pair, and he should often push any hand that he thought was good enough to call the flop with. You cannot call without a pair, and you might lay one down (given that you have not commited yourself with your bet).

If you check the turn, then he should also bet with any hand that he would also call a push with.

Basically, by betting you prevent him from betting his unpaired hands, and he cannot push Vs your hand, because he knows you will call, and he must therefore suspect that you have a pair.

Results :
If you check he can
A. Push with a made house
B. Push with two big cards
C. Push on a total bluff

If you bet he can
A. Push with a made house

You gain by checking.

Also - your bets actually look like a monster, they dont look like you are weak.

5starpool · 27-01-2006 6:28pm

NickyOD wrote:

I play it the same way but I think your oponent folded AK not a pair, so if I read him for AK I check the turn.

Limping from the button 4 handed with average chip stack only 5BB with AK? I know this was a pub tourney, but surely not.....

ocallagh · 27-01-2006 7:11pm

I think you played the flop perfectly.

In regards to the turn..

If I was going to bet 12K on the turn, I'd probably just push for 20K. It's a weaker bet IMO, and you are more likely to be called.

Against weak players, if they think they are ahead with A high, let them in cheap. A lot of players don't have the balls to go with their reads for their entire stack... 6K on the turn, and 6K on the river might keep them interested/commited. Also, a check on the turn might give them confidence to push.

Against a decent player, I would either check, push or min bet depending on my read of the player.

Jaden · 27-01-2006 7:14pm

Nicky logic.
Limping UTG with AK, 4 handed with massive blinds is an assclown play. Unless it's Nicky doing it. Then it's genius, and simply poor luck that some idiot beat you with J,2os.

It's a well known fact that Nicky slow plays monsters, and agressively plays 7,4 off-suit. See any post of his with a hand history in it. The tactic puts the fear of bejasus into anyone at a table with him, a bit like having 3 Gus Hansons on your left, when you have the short stack, and they all have guns.

But he's a celebrity, so he's allowed act like this.

Jaden · 27-01-2006 7:23pm

In hindsight, I should probably have min bet the turn.

I still think that long term it's more profitable than just checking. But I'm beginning to wonder if my turn play was too strong. This seems to be another facet of my play I need to improve on - playing strong hands too forcefully. Just a morbid fear of bad beats really.

Now if I can just plug the leak I have playing AK from early position.....

NickyOD · 27-01-2006 7:29pm

5starpool wrote:

Limping from the button 4 handed with average chip stack only 5BB with AK? I know this was a pub tourney, but surely not.....

Trying to think like a bad player will only make your head hurt so don't try it. players limp on te button "trapping" with AK all the time and the same palyers call with Ace high and no draw on the flop. Int he 100FO in the pokerlounge this week a similar player min raise my blind at 100-200 and I called with 68o. Flop 6-8-T with 2 diamonds. I bet 600. He calls. Turn a King. I bet 2000 and he goes all in for 3200. I call. He has AK and hits ten on the river for a better 2 pair. He completely outplayed me. I just never saw it coming.

Jaden wrote:

But he's a celebrity, so he's allowed act like this.

I was asked to be the next Irish celebrity Big Brother but I turned them down. I don't think they're scraping the barrel hard enough for that show.:rolleyes:

Hiding a Monster Hand.

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