Call or Fold?

Daithio

This is a hand I played in the pokerstars $500k last night which I'm still not entirely sure I made the right play on.

Blinds 50-100.
Middle position raiser sitting on 2500,
short stack in sb on 1500,
I'm on bb with 3300.

Middle position (solid enough) makes it 300, sb calls, and I call with 8h8s. Flop comes 9h10h2c. SB checks, and I decide to have a stab because the raiser could be sitting on AK AQ etc and isn't the sort to make a play on me. So I bet 450 into a 900 pot, and after thinking the original raiser folds. The sb flat calls. The turn brings the 6h, to make the board 9h 10h 2c 6h,and the sb goes all in straight away for 750. What do you do? There is 2500 in the pot, and it's costing 750 to call. Bear in mind I'm about 95% certain he doesn't have the made flush just by the way he played it and how fast he acted etc. I'm definitely confident enough that he doesn't have the flush to make a decision on that basis.

CodeMonkey

Daithio wrote:

This is a hand I played in the pokerstars $500k last night which I'm still not entirely sure I made the right play on.

Blinds 50-100.
Middle position raiser sitting on 2500,
short stack in sb on 1500,
I'm on bb with 3300.

Middle position (solid enough) makes it 300, sb calls, and I call with 8h8s. Flop comes 9h10h2c. SB checks, and I decide to have a stab because the raiser could be sitting on AK AQ etc and isn't the sort to make a play on me. So I bet 450 into a 900 pot, and after thinking the original raiser folds. The sb flat calls. The turn brings the 6h, to make the board 9h 10h 2c 6h,and the sb goes all in straight away for 750. What do you do? There is 2500 in the pot, and it's costing 750 to call. Bear in mind I'm about 95% certain he doesn't have the made flush just by the way he played it and how fast he acted etc. I'm definitely confident enough that he doesn't have the flush to make a decision on that basis.

I'd fold. There are too many hands that'll beat you. He could have a flush, straight, top pair, 2 pair, even pair of 9s and just chancing his arm or hit trips with the 6h... then again I am not a veru good player

Lafortezza

He could have a nine or ten and since he's shortstacked he doesn't mind giving a free card if he can gamble when you or the PF raiser make a (continuation) bet. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like Kh9x. I'm strugglin to think of hands that he would play like this and that you beat. Overcards? Bare Ah? Ah2x? Not sure of the maths side of things if he has a 9 or a T and you're flush draw is live but I'd be leaning towards a fold if SB is a good solid player.

Culchie

Daithio wrote:

This is a hand I played in the pokerstars $500k last night which I'm still not entirely sure I made the right play on.

Blinds 50-100.
Middle position raiser sitting on 2500,
short stack in sb on 1500,
I'm on bb with 3300.

Middle position (solid enough) makes it 300, sb calls, and I call with 8h8s. Flop comes 9h10h2c. SB checks, and I decide to have a stab because the raiser could be sitting on AK AQ etc and isn't the sort to make a play on me. So I bet 450 into a 900 pot, and after thinking the original raiser folds. The sb flat calls. The turn brings the 6h, to make the board 9h 10h 2c 6h,and the sb goes all in straight away for 750. What do you do? There is 2500 in the pot, and it's costing 750 to call. Bear in mind I'm about 95% certain he doesn't have the made flush just by the way he played it and how fast he acted etc. I'm definitely confident enough that he doesn't have the flush to make a decision on that basis.

Looks like he has a set, and is afraid you may be drawing to flush. I'd call and hope for a heart, you are getting the odds.
Yukky situation. I think the continuation bet sucks you in deep into the pot, it's hard to fold it now. I would have done the same thing though.

Gholimoli

Daithio wrote:

This is a hand I played in the pokerstars $500k last night which I'm still not entirely sure I made the right play on.

Blinds 50-100.
Middle position raiser sitting on 2500,
short stack in sb on 1500,
I'm on bb with 3300.

Middle position (solid enough) makes it 300, sb calls, and I call with 8h8s. Flop comes 9h10h2c. SB checks, and I decide to have a stab because the raiser could be sitting on AK AQ etc and isn't the sort to make a play on me. So I bet 450 into a 900 pot, and after thinking the original raiser folds. The sb flat calls. The turn brings the 6h, to make the board 9h 10h 2c 6h,and the sb goes all in straight away for 750. What do you do? There is 2500 in the pot, and it's costing 750 to call. Bear in mind I'm about 95% certain he doesn't have the made flush just by the way he played it and how fast he acted etc. I'm definitely confident enough that he doesn't have the flush to make a decision on that basis.

dont like the lead on the flop as you have no idea where you stand if you get flat called.
a decent player could just make a play at you with air specially if you get an over card on the turn.
however ths situation in hand:
SB called your flop bet ,if he has a T or 9 your beat.if he was on str draw with 78(which is most likely) he just made it on the turn.
if he was on a flush draw ,he just made it on the turn.
there is nothing at all you can beat here only a bluff.
you are how ever getting something like 3.3:1 odds, if u count your flush cards as outs then you have something like 8 outs .seen as he may have str im only gonna count one of your 8s as outs.so you have something like 9 outs which is like 4:1 against.
looks like a fold to me.
P.S didnt see the inside str possibility there.i think with the extra 4 outs it would make it a break even call at best.

Waylander

I think I would call here, I think he has hit the 9 or T and I would expect to be behind, but I would be hoping a heart, seven or eight would win me the pot.

Culchie

Gholimoli wrote:

dont like the lead on the flop as you have no idea where you stand if you get flat called.
a decent player could just make a play at you with air specially if you get an over card on the turn.
however ths situation in hand:
SB called your flop bet ,if he has a T or 9 your beat.if he was on str draw with 78(which is most likely) he just made it on the turn.
if he was on a flush draw ,he just made it on the turn.
there is nothing at all you can beat here only a bluff.
you are how ever getting something like 3.3:1 odds, if u count your flush cards as outs then you have something like 8 outs .seen as he may have str im only gonna count one of your 8s as outs.so you have something like 9 outs which is like 4:1 against.
looks like a fold to me.

That's all very well, but he is confident he hasn't made the flush by the turn, so we have to go with his read for the purposes of analysis.

So with the 3:3/1 odds ... and then factoring in the % of times he is ahead with the 88, and the amount of outs still available, I make a reluctant call here.
I agree, it was the flop bet that made this a yukky spot, but as OP said, he felt he could steal the pot, so there was logic there as well.

Just one of those situations you find yourself in sometimes, it's not supposed to be easy all the time:o

If SB is a good player, (and I'm sure he is in a $500k tourney) he would use the turn 6 to look like he was playing an open ender, and he is representing that 6 made the straight for him.

I hate the call, but I do it.

Gholimoli

Culchie wrote:

That's all very well, but he is confident he hasn't made the flush by the turn, so we have to go with his read for the purposes of analysis.

So with the 3:3/1 odds ... and then factoring in the % of times he is ahead with the 88, and the amount of outs still available, I make a reluctant call here.
I agree, it was the flop bet that made this a yukky spot, but as OP said, he felt he could steal the pot, so there was logic there as well.

Just one of those situations you find yourself in sometimes, it's not supposed to be easy all the time:o

If SB is a good player, (and I'm sure he is in a $500k tourney) he would use the turn 6 to look like he was playing an open ender, and he is representing that 6 made the straight for him.

I hate the call, but I do it.

OP said he is confident he dosent have the made flush.
thats fair enough ,but at the same time ,there is nothing to say that if hero makes his flush with a h on the river ,it will be good.
i counted the flush cards as outs for him ,but to be honest i dont think you should count all of them as outs.based on that i dont think calling here is a wrong move.

Culchie

Gholimoli wrote:

OP said he is confident he dosent have the made flush.
thats fair enough ,but at the same time ,there is nothing to say that if hero makes his flush with a h on the river ,it will be good.
i counted the flush cards as outs for him ,but to be honest i dont think you should count all of them as outs.based on that i dont think calling here is a wrong move.

Yup can't argue with that. It's one of those reluctant calls.

How did it work out Dathio ... interesting hand.

Daithio

Gholimoli wrote:

dont like the lead on the flop as you have no idea where you stand if you get flat called.

If I don't lead, and the original raiser bets, then I have much less of an idea where I stand then if I lead and he calls. If the original raiser calls or raises then I'm through with the hand. The short stack calling is a different matter altogether though.

Daithio

Culchie wrote:

How did it work out Dathio ... interesting hand.

He's not a particularly good player at all.

I'd ruled out a set of 9s or 10s (he would have pushed preflop) and if he has 22 that's just unlucky but I’m still getting just about the right odds to call.

A possibility was 78, which is a 75% favourite over my 88 on the turn, so I'm getting the right odds to call against this.

Another I thought was QJ, perhaps with a heart. I actually thought this was a pretty strong possibility. I'm obviously getting great odds to call here because I'm ahead.

Another one was a 9/10 with an over card J/Q/K. I'm not in that bad shape if his overcard isn't a heart, and I'm definitely getting the odds to call. (I'm a 70%-30% underdog, but getting 3.5 to 1 on my money).

The only hands that I am in big big trouble against are the made flush (which I'd ruled out) and the pair with an overcard heart(which is pretty unlikely). Also if he had been willing to give me a free card on the flop to increase his chances of a double up, would he not do this again after picking up a relatively high flush draw with his pair? So I'd pretty much ruled that out too, thanks to all 180 seconds of the pokerstars time bank!

I called in the end, figuring I'd be on 5000 if I called and won (which I didn't think was that improbable), 2500 if I folded, and 1800 if I called and lost. I don't think the difference between 1800 and 2500 is that great, but it's huge between 2500 and 5000.

As it turned out he had 7d9d so I was just about getting the correct odds for the call; my inside straight draw and flush draw were good but my 8 no longer helped, as it gave him the straight.. A blank on the end and I was down to 1800 which I quickly tilted away.

DeVore

ugly hand alright.

The lead out on the flop is what I would have done online and probably offline too for the reasons Dave gave. The number of times it gets through on a raggy flop or allows you to scare them off on the turn is pretty big.
Its a pity the SB has so little because if he has 2k you can just drop it, nice try etc.

On the turn, I dunno. Honestly I don't know. I hate the call. I'll probably call because of the 5k - 2.5k - 1.8k differential Dave points out but I'll hate putting every last chip in. I could easily fold it too, but I think I'd make a crying call and hate every minute of it.

On the flip side, I'd value the 750 chips greatly for tournament reasons though 1800 is a playable stack at 50/100 so it probably wouldnt be enough of a reason to let hand go.

I am trying to think of ways OUT of the dead end, preflop. Perhaps you could be uber aggressive and move in. MP raiser will hate the action behind him and SB may decide to wait for a better hand with 1200. In the case in point this is probably what will happen but thats not really a justification.

Its a hard shove to do though, ugly as f*ck. I dunno, I think God hates you.

DeV.

Gholimoli

Daithio wrote:

If I don't lead, and the original raiser bets, then I have much less of an idea where I stand then if I lead and he calls. If the original raiser calls or raises then I'm through with the hand. The short stack calling is a different matter altogether though.

The reason why I said that I don't like the lead on the flop is because you have a hand that would love to see the turn card.

By all means if you see a raggy flop like that lead with 72 ,if it works it works and if you get reraised then your done with the hand and your not losing much.

But here that's not the case, you actually have a hand and it can improve with the next card so you want to see the next card as cheap as possible.

As I said if SB was a decent player ,he would raise you with air after the original raiser folded his hand. Then you would have to fold your 88 not knowing if in was a bluff or if he actually had a hand.

If you checked the flop,I agree that original raiser would have made a bet and then:
1.SB would come over the top and then you have a raiser and a reraiser so you know your hand is not good.

2.SB just calls the bet ,and then your getting your odds to see the turn.

3.SB folds (this is the best) in which case you can call the bet and then lead the turn. if original raiser has nothing then he is not gonna call you .if he calls you then you will still get to see the river and decide.

Generally I don't like to lead the flop unless im either very strong (two pair,TPTK,set) or very weak .in either case the key point is that I don't mind a reraise.

Daithio

I don't have much of a chance of improving after the flop really gholimoli, the only card I can catch is the 8 for a set, otherwise it's all runner runner stuff. Remember the 6h didn't come til the turn, and I led out on the 9h10h2c flop.

DeVore

If its check-checked to the OR then he's practically obliged to bet a continuation bet and Dave still doesnt know where he is and still doesnt get to see the turn for free. By betting 400 into an 800 pot he achieves several things. He may win the pot there and then or he may buy the turn at a decent price and get a lot of info for the chips too.

Dave, what do you think of a reraise preflop? Maybe not all in but to something like 800? Spend the chips there rather then on a flop thats likely to have at least one over card?

I dunno, this hand gives me the creeps.

DeV.

Culchie

DeVore wrote:

If its check-checked to the OR then he's practically obliged to bet a continuation bet and Dave still doesnt know where he is and still doesnt get to see the turn for free. By betting 400 into an 800 pot he achieves several things. He may win the pot there and then or he may buy the turn at a decent price and get a lot of info for the chips too.

Dave, what do you think of a reraise preflop? Maybe not all in but to something like 800? Spend the chips there rather then on a flop thats likely to have at least one over card?

I dunno, this hand gives me the creeps.

DeV.

Yup,

It's just one of those hands you feel that you are feeling around in the dark for the light switch, and you just can't find it.

I would have played it the same as Dave to be honest... re-raising 'solid player' with 88 is a viable option though, it could certainly help clarify a few things.
Still think (other than folding preflop) you're gonna end up in the same yukky spot.

Daithio

Plus I'm out of position post flop if he flat calls. I prefer seeing a flop that looks good to me, like 10 high, and then finding out where I stand afterwards when the pot is still relatively small. If I reraise preflop I'm getting myself into all sorts of trouble post flop if it doesn't suit me. The way I played it I was going to just check fold if an A, K or Q came, but have a stab if the flop looked like it hadn't connected with him. If he calls or reraises me then I'm done with it.

DeVore

yeah I'm basically trying to find ways to get away from the hand or play it differently. I was thinking about it along the lines of spending the chips preflop and then walking away from the flop if you dont like it. I take your points but then I started to think about it. The pot would have 1400 in it and the OR is being asked for 500 more (presuming you reraise to 800). Now, if he's smart that might look like a big hand in the BB but he'll probably call and the SB gets sucked in "for the value" **

On the flop then you can move in and it looks like JJ+ or a set. I dont think yer man with the 9 will really want to put his tournie on it (but again, thats hindsight talking).

This is all very "if I know what cards he has I can formulate a way to bet to win the hand" sort of stuff.

DeV.
** Overcalling (ie calling a raise thats already been called in one or more spots ahead of you) "for the value" with weak hands has to be the single biggest donkey mistake I see. If one more person justifies calling with 9To because of the size of the pot, despite the fact that everyone appears to be staying in anyway so there is no overlay, I think I'll paper cut them to death with my cards. The number of people who say "Ah sure, I had to call!" when walking away from the table staggers me.