Thoughts on Saturday 21.01.06

Crumbs

Haydock 1:40
With the heavy ground not likely to suit many, particularly the favourite, I fancy Faasel to take this Grade 2. He's ran well in his two races this season without winning but now has a visor back on which seemed to work very well on him in the past. His good chance is reflected in his shortish price of ~9/4 but he seems the most likely winner to me.


Lingfield 2:20
Le Volfoni is around Evs fav in this 4-runner novice chase, looking to complete a soft-ground 4-timer. I think his market rival, Foreman, much prefers good going and a longer trip and so the fly in the ointment could be Marcel who should have come on a bit for his chasing debut but I think Le Volfoni will just about have his measure tomorrow.


Wincanton 2:05
I'd give a good each-way shout to Another Native at ~8/1. He disappointed when odds-on a couple of weeks ago but if you'd seen how easy his previous win was, you couldn't blame it solely on the rise in weight. This is 3 furlongs shorter and the softer, the better for him.


Wincanton 2:35
I'd imagine that Ruby Walsh could have gone to Lingfield to ride Le Volfoni or to Naas to ride Southern Vic but he's at Wincanton for a full book of rides in less classier races and it would be no surprise to see him win on at least a couple of them. Here he rides The Luder who makes his handicap debut after three decent but winless runs in novice/maiden races. Looks like better form than anything else in the race. Around 9/4.


Naas 4:15
Hairy Molly was well backed in a decent bumper at Leopardstown's Xmas meeting and finished a good 2nd. I'd expect him to go one better today in what looks a lesser race but you can never be sure. The market will paint a better picture closer to the race. The Noel Meade/Nina Carberry connection has the 2nd fav here and should attract some money meaning Hairy Molly could end up being overpriced. He's better than 5/2 at the moment.


Lingfield 3:25
Patricksnineteenth ran quite well on his comeback three weeks ago after 21 months out. He could be on an attractive rating if he's continued to improve after his injury.


Wincanton 3:45
Albarino ran well in the Grade 1 Tolworth last time and reverts to handicap company here. Should go well and may be an each-way-to-nothing opportunity.


Lingfield 2:50
This is the race I've spent the longest studying and I still haven't a clue. If anyone else has had a good look at it, I'd be interested in your thoughts. It's a Grade 2 limited handicap over 2m3½f with 9 runners, most of whom have clashed before. Favourite Dom D'Orgeval would seem to have the measure of Nathos based on their last run and will love the heavy ground but Nathos has run very well twice since then, especially his fast-finishing 2nd in the Ladbroke Hurdle two weeks ago. However, Fenix who was 3rd in that race, gets a 16lbs(!!) turnaround with Nathos for a 6 length defeat. However, that's largely due to Fenix's new jockey, a 10lb claimer with a record of 0 from 30 in all his rides over the last three years, so that mightn't amount to much. Still, at around 14/1, he could be a decent e/w wager.

Turtle Soup and Dancing Bay generally go well in the mud and can't be discounted but a better proposition might be Dusky Warbler. 3rd in the Supreme Novices and 2nd in the corresponding race at Aintree, he ran a shocker on his comeback run and is surely better than that. Won't mind the ground and is interesting at ~7/1. There are two others that are making their seasonal debut here after running well in novice company last year and could be on a good mark. Plus I've just read that Tom Segal tipped one of them, Blushing Bull (Nicholls/Tizzard), in his Pricewise column.

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Edit for results:
2 x 1st, 2 x 2nd, 2 x 3rd, 1 x 5th, 1 x 10th
A level-stakes loss of 1pt on starting prices but a profit if on at early prices.
A "meh" kinda day.

masterK

Good luck with those Crumbs.

For what it's worth I'm in total agreement on Patricksnineteenth at 3:25, he would be my nap of the day, the favourite Saintsaire is a bit of a dodge pot and is always one to take one. Patricksnineteenth ran an encouraging race on his first run back and and will relish the ground. I'd take an early price on him as I can see him being well backed.

The other one I like at Lingfield is Blushing Bull at 2:50, he's been off for a while but goes well fresh, has plenty of stamina and will relish the ground. He was beaten by todays favourite Dom D´Orgeval but enjoys a massive 16lb turnaround in the weights today.

wheres me jumpa

Wincanton 3:45
Albarino ran well in the Grade 1 Tolworth last time and reverts to handicap company here. Should go well and may be an each-way-to-nothing opportunity.

im on this also. got it at 7/1 on PP. Backed Nippy Des Mottes during the week and thats why i was attracted to this race but top weight this time out and decided to look further down the field.