Semi interesting $2 $4 hand

Hectorjelly

utg who is very tight makes it 20 utg. This is AA KK AK QQ, and much more likely to be AA/KK than AK because of the size of the raise. Everyone at the table calls including me on the button with 88. Both me and utg have over 1k. Everyone else has around the buyin. We have no history together. The flop is 3 low clubs. I have the 8 of clubs. Utg bets 20 into the pot of around 120. I make it 100. He calls. Whats my plan for the rest of the hand. Should I check fold? When he calls the flop raise I am 90% sure he has an overpair and he has the A of clubs.

hotspur

If you're right in your read then he's staying around to the river for sure unless he's very weak, he'll probably check a blank so I'd take the river for free and hope to hit an eight, two checks from him would leave you the decision for an all in bluff on the end but given your AA read and how stubborn people are with it I wouldn't bluff it.

Hectorjelly

hotspur wrote:

If you're right in your read then he's staying around to the river for sure unless he's very weak, he'll probably check a blank so I'd take the river for free and hope to hit an eight, two checks from him would leave you the decision for an all in bluff on the end but given your AA read and how stubborn people are with it I wouldn't bluff it.

Theres about 300 in the pot and we both have nearly 1k each, so im not going to go all in as a bluff. If I check the turn I have almost no chance of a successfull bluff on the river.

NickyOD

Hectorjelly wrote:

Theres about 300 in the pot and we both have nearly 1k each, so im not going to go all in as a bluff. If I check the turn I have almost no chance of a successfull bluff on the river.

Excactly. If you want to buy this pot you must bet both streets, strong enough not to show weakness on the turn and enough on the river to persuade him to fold.

Of course this is only if you are spot on with your read. The 20 bet on the flop troubles me though. I might play AK of clubs this way.

Bozzer

If you check turn, you shut down barring an 8 on the river.
If you choose to bet the turn, you should bet around 200-225. This way if he calls your turn bet there is still at least a pot sized bet left for the river –giving you greater fold equity should you decide to bluff the river.

It’s hard to say whether running the bluff will be profitable. There are some opponents who are very tight preflop, but are willing to go to the felt with their big pair postflop.

But in this hand, our opponent has a flush to fear as well as the usual sets/2 pairs.
I like beating up on nits and so I bet about 220.

fuzzbox

Bozzer wrote:

If you check turn, you shut down barring an 8 on the river.
If you choose to bet the turn, you should bet around 200-225. This way if he calls your turn bet there is still at least a pot sized bet left for the river –giving you greater fold equity should you decide to bluff the river.

It’s hard to say whether running the bluff will be profitable. There are some opponents who are very tight preflop, but are willing to go to the felt with their big pair postflop.

But in this hand, our opponent has a flush to fear as well as the usual sets/2 pairs.
I like beating up on nits and so I bet about 220.

Nits aren't well known for folding AA with the Ace of clubs. And nits can also bet small with the nuts looking to get raised.

You are going to have to bluff off a substantial portion of your stack trying to win this hand, and you may be running yourself into the nuts.

A better play might have been to call the flop and raise the turn.

AmarilloFats

Hectorjelly wrote:

utg who is very tight makes it 20 utg. This is AA KK AK QQ, and much more likely to be AA/KK than AK because of the size of the raise. Everyone at the table calls including me on the button with 88. Both me and utg have over 1k. Everyone else has around the buyin. We have no history together. The flop is 3 low clubs. I have the 8 of clubs. Utg bets 20 into the pot of around 120. I make it 100. He calls. Whats my plan for the rest of the hand. Should I check fold? When he calls the flop raise I am 90% sure he has an overpair and he has the A of clubs.

I assume everyone else folded to his 20 Bet!
320 in the pot on the Turn. I reckon a bet of 280 fold his AA, KK without Ac or Kc?
Since u put him on AA, KK I don't see the point of the flop raise unless you were gonna follow it up with a turn bet.
As you said a river bet will get called if you check the turn, unless the river is a club and he don't have one.
His 20 bet is strange. Is it AcKc>>??
As played I like a bet of 280 on turn, but shutting down if this is called and folding to a raise....

ianmc38

AmarilloFats wrote:

I assume everyone else folded to his 20 Bet!
320 in the pot on the Turn. I reckon a bet of 280 fold his AA, KK without Ac or Kc?
Since u put him on AA, KK I don't see the point of the flop raise unless you were gonna follow it up with a turn bet.
As you said a river bet will get called if you check the turn, unless the river is a club and he don't have one.
His 20 bet is strange. Is it AcKc>>??
As played I like a bet of 280 on turn, but shutting down if this is called and folding to a raise....

Yeah, i agree. No point in the flop reraise without leading the turn. Though i don't like the smell of this hand and as The Black Diamond says, it could well be AcKc here.

Bozzer

fuzzbox wrote:

Nits aren't well known for folding AA with the Ace of clubs. And nits can also bet small with the nuts looking to get raised.

You are going to have to bluff off a substantial portion of your stack trying to win this hand, and you may be running yourself into the nuts.

A better play might have been to call the flop and raise the turn.

I agree with this. My main point was about choosing a bet size on the turn if you were going to bluff. I forgot to metion that if you think your opponent will fold AcA/AcK to a pot sized turn bet, then that is the bet you should make. I assumed that our opponent wouldn't fold these hands and so a smaller bet is better.

The flop action makes me less happy about bluffing the turn. If he had lead for 100 instead of his suspicious line then I would be more inclined to bluff.
If you knew your opponent was weak-tight and equally like to have AcA or AcK or AcKc and maybe KcK (obviously not combinations wise) by the turn, then I think bluffing the turn with the intention of bluffing the river(if he calls turn and checks river) is a profitable line. Most weak tighties are not going to stack off nearly 300bb's without the nuts and mathematically if we assume he can have a wider range than the nuts if he calls the turn, then a river bluff should be +EV.
The difference with this hand is that our opponent is more likely to have the nuts with the flop action. This might be enough to make bluffing turn and river unprofitable. I would also need to know more about how opponent plays postflop to make a better decision.

Hectorjelly

I could tell from his timing that he didnt flop the nut flush. Also, I didnt know he had an overpair until I raised him on the flop (actually until he called).

The hand actually played out strangely, the turn was an 8 and he check called a 2/3 pot bet. River was a spade and he led for about 300. I folded. Im not sure if the turn hadnt of been an 8 if I would have tried to push him off AA, its probably an unprofitable move in general, even with stacks as deep as these.

NickyOD

You meant the river was a club right?