Merrion 150 rebuy - TT short stacked..

ocallagh

Sorry... this is a boring hand,

4 handed, late in a tournament.

Chips stacks 13K (you) 18K, 20K and 110K, money back for 4th, and 3rd is nothing to write home about either.... Blinds 500 1K going to 800 1500 next hand.

UTG makes it 5K to go. You are on the BB and see TT. UTG has made large pre-flop raises, but not too many of them. I have been at his table all nght and he hasn't shown Ace rag yet... His range is 66+, A9+.. But I would not rule out KQs, KJs, JQs, TJs (although he seems to limp more often with KQ/JQ)

How do you play TT?

I went for a stop and go, willing to push on ANY flop..

Flop AJ3r

Should I re-evaluate leaving myself with 8K or still go with the stop and go?

What are the chances he has an Ace in his hand?

cardshark202

What size stack is the UTG?

Also, surely his range is much wider than mentioned as its 4-handed? Although that may depend on his chipstack.

ocallagh

cardshark202 wrote:

What size stack is the UTG?

Also, surely his range is much wider than mentioned as its 4-handed? Although that may depend on his chipstack.

sorry, he has about 20K. The table is playing quite tight because the chip leader is calling 90% of pe-flop raises.

shoutman

Obviously I am are far more inexperienced player then yourself, but for me if ther pre flop raise is more then half your stack I would push instantly.

With the stop and go move I would check/fold. Obviously it is a possibility that the raiser has a low pair and was going on a semi-steal to take the blinds, but I think with the A+J on the flop it is definately in his calling range.

Even with 8k you are still in touch with the other three short stacks on the table.
Well thats my two cents.


Edit/ Just saw the extra post there. I think now that it might be a possibility that utg raised with a premium hand hoping to get action from the big stack who likes to see the flop. I wouldnt be ruling out a pocket pair higher then tens. But I still couldn't see myself laying down this hand at such a stage in the tourney.

cardshark202

Ok that makes sense. I don't like the idea of going back on a decision to stop and go. Statistically, I think theres about a 16% chance he has an ace.

cardshark202

But if his raising range is has you say then there is about a 43% of him holding an ace(excluding KQs-JTs) and a 33% chance including (KQs-JTs).

SandyVN

Id push 1st time around if i was you If he has AJ A10 KQ KJ QJ etc.... He should fold straight away and you would pick up the pot there.

cardshark202

SandyVN wrote:

Id push 1st time around if i was you If he has AJ A10 KQ KJ QJ etc.... He should fold straight away and you would pick up the pot there.

I don't think he's folding many if any of these hands when he has to call 8k to win 18k and knock a player out regardless of stack size.

SandyVN

Well at least then its race time. But if he's only sitting on 20k He mite just try hold out for the money.

cardshark202

The whole point of the stop and go is to only give your opponent 3 cards to hit and/or make him fold the better hand if the flop brings scare cards. The only problem with it is he may also fold a hand you have dominated that he may otherwise have called with preflop. All depends on the opponents raising range.

In this case, once you've decided to push on ANY flop you can't be worried by ANY flop.

kinaldo

cardshark202 wrote:

But if his raising range is has you say then there is about a 43% of him holding an ace(excluding KQs-JTs) and a 33% chance including (KQs-JTs).

how long did it take u to work this out?

careca

I would probably have gone all in preflop but if I decided to pull a stop and go and then I would carry on with it regardless of flop. I actually thought that was the whole point of it. Well unless you hit a monster and want to check raise.

If you check this flop he will definetly represent the A and you will have to fold. Get it in.

Doctor Fell

I agree with most of the previous posts - you intended playing the stop and go, so why stop now? It'll have worked out great if he did indeed have qq or KK, but regardless I think you have to try and represent the Ace now. U said there's not a lot of difference between 3rd and 4rth, so u have nothing much to lose. Also, with the blinds raising next hand u'll only have just less than 5 times the big blind, not a lot of comfort there.

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

on a side note - fairly crap payout for this tournament. Only two people significantly in the money (if 4th is just money-back, and 3rd is nothing to write home about). How many people were playing?

Culchie

Roundtower2 wrote:

on a side note - fairly crap payout for this tournament. Only two people significantly in the money (if 4th is just money-back, and 3rd is nothing to write home about). How many people were playing?

I was thinking the same thing. Risk/Reward return seems very poor

bohsman

Roundtower2 wrote:

on a side note - fairly crap payout for this tournament. Only two people significantly in the money (if 4th is just money-back, and 3rd is nothing to write home about). How many people were playing?

2 tables with KP putting up most of the prizemoney I hear

pokertroll

bohsman wrote:

2 tables with KP putting up most of the prizemoney I hear

Yes it was sponsored by Kp Nuts who contributed about 20% of the prize fund.

23 players.

First 5 paid.

3rd-775
2nd 1400
1st-2900

The worst value tournament ever - of the 23 players that played, there were about 16 good players that you would not want at your table.

I only played cos I turned up and had nothing better to do. It actually turned out to be a very good game as there were mostly good players at the tables.

Norman had another one of those 'one minute you see him with loads of chips, the next minute his seat is empty' type tournaments, donating them all to Joseph(from Egypt) who was similarly stacked and failed to miss one flop for the whole tournament.

In the end, I finished third for 775 = 415 profit - never again unless they at least guarantee a minimum prizefund if they get 20 players.

I assume Joseph won it and ukpoker came 2nd (only because I stupidly went all in with 44 to win the blinds only to be called by Joseph who had limped in with 10 10)

ocallagh

Thanks for the comment - Yep, I went with the original plan.. gave it 3 seconds and pushed all in. He (Mark Strahan) called in a flash with AK.. doh

I'd have gone bust no matter how I played it.. and I suppose there was a chance he had a PP. But then I started thinking.. With the ace and jack on board, the only hands this is a good move against are QQ/KK..! If he has 44,55,66,77,88,99 I lost out on a lot of chips. If not I'm bust. Maybe I was better off with a race pre-flop??

There were two tables and 5750 in the prize pool. 5 paid. 270, 400, 775, 1400, 2900. Mark MacMahon (Pokertroll), Mark Strahan and Joseph were left. Joseph held most of the chips.

The structure is ok.. The blinds and all were fine, but it is an expensive one. €150 gets you 2500 chips. When you lose them all it only costs another €100 for a buy in... and for every €100 you spend you get more chips 3k, 3.5k, 4k... so when you bust it's very tough not to rebuy (thanks Ken )!! Then, the top-up is worth 4500 so you HAVE to get the top-up to stand a chance.. So expect to pay €350..

It was a 2 table SnG with rebuys, along with a lot of good poker players. Probably the worst 'value for money' tournament in Dublin, but I really enjoyed it.

fuzzbox

If you went for a stop n go, then you have to push even if an Ace hits.

fuzzbox

SandyVN wrote:

Id push 1st time around if i was you If he has AJ A10 KQ KJ QJ etc.... He should fold straight away and you would pick up the pot there.

4-handed, none of those hands will fold for 8k more in a 18k pot (nor should they)

Gholimoli

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.1528 % 43.95% 00.20% { TcTd }
Hand 2: 55.8472 % 55.65% 00.20% { JJ+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo } top 5.7%



To be honest I think the above range is wider than the actual range UTG will call you with but I think it's a fair assumption.

The above range is 5.7% of cards .to make it easy will just say top 6%.
So if you push here:
You will win 5K(his raise)+1.5K(blinds) =6.5K you will win this 94% of times=6110

You will win 26500 when he calls and you win 2.6% of times=689

You will loos 12K when he calls and you loos 3.4% of times=432

6110+689-432=6367 so that how much you will win on average if you push here.
To me this looks like a clear push.
Notice that if you set his calling range even wider and add hands like KJ ,QJ then:



equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.4566 % 48.26% 00.20% { TcTd }
Hand 2: 51.5434 % 51.35% 00.20% { JJ+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+, QJo } top 9%



You will win 6.5K 91% of time =5915
You will win 26500 when he calls and you win 4.5% =1192
You will loos 12K when he calls and you loos =540

5915+1192-540=6567
So if he calls you with a wider range then it's obviously much better for you.
I think the key to this is that you have huge FE here and that's why a push is such an +EV move here.
I don't like stop and go here because you're giving him a chance to see the flop for no extra cost than his raise.
He will fold your push on the flop if he doesn't hit and call it if he does. Either way he has not made any mistake at all.

Now my maths could be wrong here and I have rounded up the % just to make it easier but please tell me if im way off here.

JuliusFranco

regarding the tourney itself:

they will need to sort out the guarantee certainly

the reason they ran it is because the satelites for the ladbrooks poker cruise (which had the same buy in and rebuys, gtd prize pool etc) was quite successful.

all new tournaments seem to take a while to get going...remember when the fitz sunday tourney started and even the fitz tuesday double chance took a couple of weeks to take off

is there a demand for larger buy in (€300+) weekly tournaments?

cardshark202

Gholimoli wrote:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.4566 % 48.26% 00.20% { TcTd }
Hand 2: 51.5434 % 51.35% 00.20% { JJ+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+, QJo } top 9%

I think his calling range is much wider than that. His calling range would be exactly the same as his raising range imo. He's getting over 2:1 on his money and has a chance to knock a player out.

Gholimoli

cardshark202 wrote:

I think his calling range is much wider than that. His calling range would be exactly the same as his raising range imo. He's getting over 2:1 on his money and has a chance to knock a player out.

#
if you add hands like 99,88,77 or things like that then it would make a push even more +EV

kpnuts

Niall, I agree that stop and go is the right move here. However, on this particular flop, seeing as it contains an Ace, I would actually play the reverse stop and go, i.e. let him do the "go" bit ... he obviously won't pass any Ace on the flop, but he may pass hands u actually want him to call you with, such as PPs lower than your TT. So here I would actually check-call on the flop, seeing as I've decided that I'm pot-committed pre-flop. Just unlucky he hit his Ace, I would have been putting all my chips in with the TT either way. He ain't passing Ax or even KJ/KQ etc to a pre-flop push, IMO, so I agree that there's no point in putting em in pre-flop as you're giving him the whole 5 cards to hit whatever he has then.